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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Victiv 8/22/15

Posted by on Aug 22, 2015 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured | 1 comment

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Victiv 8/22/15 Happy weekend, my friend. If you're new to DFSR, here's how the Saturday picks work. It'd be silly to give you a full set of picks for the tiny slate and the bigger later slate, so here's what I'll do. I'll go ahead and give you one guy to target in the early slate for each position, and a couple of top guys from the late slate. If you want the rest? Go ahead and have a free three day trial of our exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Victiv.   Pitchers Early Slate Danny Salazar - FD 9200 DK 11400 Victiv Opponent- NYY (Severino) R Park- @NYY Oy, the early slate is not pretty for top tier pitching. Both Salazar and the other top price option (Gerrit Cole) are up against very good offensive teams, so let me explain why I went with Salazar for my 50/50 games. Let's actually compare him straight up to Cole. The Giants are have a higher wOBA against right handed pitching and strike out less against RHP than the Yankees do. Chris Heston is a better pitcher than Luis Severino. On the other side, Cole is probably a better pitcher than Salazar straight up (though the gap is smaller than you think), and Yankee Stadium is a tougher place to pitch than Pittsburgh. Really, the likelihood that Salazar can get the W and his higher K rate are what push him to the top of the heap for me, here. He also scored 18 FanDuel fantasy points against the Yankees two starts ago. But no one will blame you if you just flip a coin. Late Slate Sonny Gray - FD 10700 DK 11600 Victiv Opponent- TB (Ramirez) R Park- @Oak If safety is your game, I'm all over Sonny Gray, here. The Rays have struck out at the 4th highest rate in the majors against right handed pitching, and have managed just the 3rd worst wOBA against righties. Oakland is a fantastic place to pitch, and while Erasmo Ramirez has improved, his 4.05 xFIP is still below league average. Gray isn't an ace's ace or anything - far from it. His 2.06 ERA is largely luck driven, but this is one of those cases where the excellent match-up makes up the difference between Gray's ERA inflated price and his true value. Let's be clear, though - this is strictly a 50/50 and double-up play. Carlos Rodon - FD 6800 DK 7100 Victiv Opponent- Sea (Nuno) L Park- @Sea Oh man,...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Victiv 8/21/15

Posted by on Aug 21, 2015 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Victiv 8/21/15 This is of course a massive slate with a ton of great arms going. Let's dive into the value plays out there, but of course baseball's baseball and the player pool is huge. This is a place to start. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Victiv. Pitchers Chris Sale - FD 12200 DK 13200 Victiv Opponent- Sea (Hernandez) R Park- @Sea Of all the big arms going today (and there are a lot of them) Sale stands out to me as the best bargain and it's not particularly close. Now understand, this doesn't necessarily imply the other pitchers will have bad games. Far from it. But with salaries in mind (as they always are with our picks), Sale is the guy. The Mariners are the 21st ranked team in wOBA against lefties this season and strike out 22% of the time in this split. Safeco depresses power all around which helps Sale avoid the long ball. Oh and of course, Sale's Sale. He's striking out close to 12 batters per nine with a 2.51 xFIP. He's on the short list for Cy Young in the A.L. and he'll cost you a boat load. But I think he's worth it on this slate where you'll need to roster a big arm. Justin Verlander - FD 7700 DK 7300 Victiv Opponent- Tex (Lewis) R Park- @Det Actually recommended him last time out against the Astros and he paid. The thing is, Verlander has been a much different pitcher in the second half of the year. Like to a startling degree. Consider this: since the All-Star break Verlander is striking out eight batters an inning and has a 6:1 K:BB ratio. Those are real numbers and are helping him to (somewhat) turn his season around. This is a price play if you are looking to save a few bucks or get a second SP with some upside. John Lackey - FD 9000 DK 9100 Victiv Opponent- SD (Cashner) R Park- @SD Another strict price play. The Padres are just brutal against righties this season. They strike out close to 22% of the time and rank 26th in the league against that hand. Lackey has the advantage of pitching in a great hitter's park and owning just good enough peripherals to get the job done. If you want to load up on bats somewhere else, his price point helps the cause.   By the way - we were reached out...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Victiv 8/20/15

Posted by on Aug 20, 2015 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured | 2 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Victiv 8/20/15 Oh my goodness gracious there are a lot of bad pitchers going on this slate. It's almost too much to handle. Look, there are inevitably going to be guys who go off today that aren't on our list. It's the nature of this slate. There are simply too many dogs taking the mound. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Victiv. Pitchers Patrick Corbin - FD 6700 DK 9300 Victiv Opponent- Cin (Lamb) L Park- @Cin We went in with Corbin last time he pitched (as a somewhat contrarian move at the time) and dude more than paid. Well, he got us paid and then some. And even with his sick peripherals (9 K's per nine, less than 2.5 walks) and 3.18 xFIP, the price remains criminally low on FanDuel. It's kind of a joke really and he should be a decent start on this slate now that he's more on the radar after the game against the Braves. There's still some risk here, but no other pitcher of his caliber is ever priced like this on FanDuel and you need to take advantage. He allows you to get in a plethora of bats against weaker arms. The Reds are a good team against lefties and this is a hitter's park. Both knocks on Corbin. But they don't outweigh his projected average. He's steep on DraftKings so I might avoid him there. But it makes a nice natural hedge if you play both sites. Collin McHugh - FD 8600 DK 8700 Victiv Opponent- TB (Archer) R Park- @Hou If he wasn't matched up with Archer this would be a much clearer play. The Rays rate as one of the worst teams in the league against righty pitching, ranking 26th in team wOBA against that split. McHugh isn't a huge strikeout guy (though he does dabble from time to time). His value comes from the Rays rarely mounting any kind of significant offensive threat in this platoon. He's a dog for the win, which hurts him, but everything else is in his favor. Strongly consider Chris Archer as the Astros are so strikeout prone that he could put up a monster line. He's just cost prohibitive on a day when bats could really go wild.   By the way - we were reached out to by a new site that deals with all things betting. They have a good take on daily fantasy sports rules, if you're new...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Victiv 8/19/15

Posted by on Aug 19, 2015 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, Uncategorized | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Victiv 8/19/15 If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv and Yahoo. Pitchers Early Slate Julio Teheran - FD 8500 DK 10000 Victiv Opponent- SD (Ross) R Park- @SD There’s not a whole lot to love pitching-wise on the early slate of games today, but Julio Teheran is the exception. The Padres strike out a lot against righties (21.6%) and have the 27th lowest OPS as well. Teheran hasn’t exactly been on fire this year, but his numbers have been much stronger against righty hitters, something the Padres have a lot of. Mix in a good pitchers park in Petco, and Teheran appears to be your best bet. Late Slate Jaime Garcia - FD 8500 DK 10300 Victiv Opponent- SF (Cain) R Park- @Stl Because all of the upper tier pitchers on this slate have pretty tough matchups, I’m going to give you some lower priced guys I think will perform well. Normally I wouldn’t suggest many pitchers facing the Giants formidable offense, but Garcia is an interesting matchup. While the Giants crush right-handed pitching, they are actually in the lower half of the league against lefties. Garcia’s strikeout numbers aren’t going to blow anyone away, but he’s been phenomenal everywhere else with a WHIP of 0.90, and ERA of 1.57 and an xFIP of 3.15. Add in the fact that I expect the Cardinals to win at home (because they usually do), and Garcia might end up posting the best score of any pitcher on the slate. Nathan Karns - FD 8000 DK 7700 Victiv Opponent- Hou (Keuchel) L Park- @Hou Doesn’t have quite as good a matchup as Garcia in my opinion, but Nathan Karns is another good mid-tier priced arm you can use in the late slate. His strikeout numbers are better than Garcia’s at almost a K per inning, which is nice since the Astros strikeout the second most in the bigs against righties. The troublesome things are that the Astros are decent hitters against righties (when they make contact), and he’s facing an ace in Dallas Keuchel. On the other hand the Rays are fantastic against southpaws and just recently roughed up Scott Kazmir. I don’t like his upside as much as Garcia’s, but Karns has produced more than 10 FD points in 8 of his last 10 games, so he’s a safe bet for a decent score. By the way - we were reached out to by a new site that deals with all...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Victiv 8/18/15

Posted by on Aug 18, 2015 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Victiv 8/18/15 If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Victiv. Pitchers Francisco Liriano - FD 9700 DK 10300 Victiv Opponent- Ari (Anderson) R Park- @Pit I think this is the first time all year that Kershaw has pitched where we haven't recommended him as the top play. But man, that price today is just too much. He needs to be about perfect to be safer value and I think you can fade him (though it doesn't feel amazing). The same is somewhat the case for deGrom. So we are left with some mid tier guys who are coming somewhat at discounts. Liriano is one of those guys. He walked a tight rope last game and was shaky the game before, leading to a price drop. The peripherals this season are tight though with a 9.91 K/9 rate and 2.94 xFIP. The ballpark helps him hear with Pittsburgh depressing power. He faces a good D-Backs team who do strike out 21% of the time against lefties. Liriano isn't the safest guy in the world, but this is a price play. Anibal Sanchez - FD 8300 DK 7300 Victiv Opponent- Chc (Hammel) R Park- @ChC Another guy who doesn't strike me as safe, but has some K upside in this matchup. The Cubs go down on strikes more than 24% of the time against righties this season and rank in the bottom half of the league in team wOBA in that platoon. Sanchez has been merely average though his 3:1 K:BB ratio comes out fine enough. He's another arm that stands to well exceed his price point because of the peripherals and matchup. He also helps stack some bats in hitter's parks against weaker arms. Which may be the way to go today. James Shields - FD 8700 DK 8600 Victiv Opponent- Atl (Wisler) R Park- @Sd The home runs have just killed him this season. They're the biggest component in his "struggles" as he's given up a fair amount of power in Petco. Because his other numbers are pretty tight. He's striking out close to ten batters per nine and has an xFIP in the mid 3's. These aren't ace numbers, but he isn't priced like one either. The Braves are a bottom third team against righties and don't have much power at all. Shields fits the bill with the other guys above. The price points allow for offensive flexibility. I like working a variety of lineups with the three...

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