Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Starsdraft - Week 5 Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's week 5! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obviously, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft. Click here for a free 3 Day Free Trial As we’ve entered the season’s second quarter, it’s a good time to discuss sample size. With only 16 games per season, it’s always a challenge to obtain a large enough sample of NFL data. Nevertheless, four weeks in to the season, it’s time to start giving 2015 numbers more weight. As is pertains to QBs and defenses against QBs, we’re looking for trends in efficiency metrics. Has a QB been able to consistently throw for good yardage and multiple TDs. Has a defense consistently had trouble stopping completions are allowed a high yards-per-attempt average over this season’s first four games? At the other positions, we’re looking for indicators of consistent volume. What is the lowest number of targets and receptions a receiver has had through four games? How many touches and red zone opportunities is a RB seeing? These are all meaningful trends that we should pay attention to now that 2015 is 25 percent complete. Also, don’t forget to simply look at fantasy performance to date. Some players’ prices simply haven’t caught up to their production, and through four games, that’s significant. For example, Larry Fitzgerald is currently the fantasy WR2, but he’s priced outside the top ten WRs on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Now let’s get into the Week 5 plays. QUARTERBACK Tom Brady - FD 8800 DK 7800 Starsdraft 8300 Opponent- DAL The fantasy QB1 through the first quarter of the season, Brady faces a Cowboys defense that has allowed an average of 322 passing yards and two TDs over the past two games to Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. The Patriots enter the weekend with the highest Vegas total on the slate (29.25), which bodes well for Brady since 71 percent of New England’s offensive TDs have come via the pass since the start of 2014 (including playoffs). Philip Rivers - FD 7500 DK 6200 Starsdraft 7000 Opponent- PIT The NFL’s passing yardage leader through four games, Rivers’ salary has dropped $600 on FanDuel and $900 on DraftKings from when the season opened. Rivers has been consistent this season, throwing for at least 240 in all...

Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Starsdraft - Week 4 Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's week 4! He's doing an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obviously, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings, Yahoo, and Starsdraft. Click here for a free 3 Day Free Trial As we approach the end of the first quarter of the NFL season, DFS salaries are starting to see major movement away from where they started the season. Some of the price changes are legitimate, but some are simply due to “noise” rather than “signal” – in other words, early season variance. Price drops – absent injury or change in workload – tend to be predictive of future value. A the season starts to progress, it’s important to look out for unwarranted price drops and also avoid players with rising salaries, unless the rise is warranted. You can compare a player’s current salary not only to his season-opening salary, but also to his historical salary. For example, last week, Jimmy Graham’s FanDuel price was the lowest it’s been since 2010, so his 7-83-1 line last week provided even more value than usual. I mentioned Cam Newton’s $800 price drop as well last week, and he finished as a top-three scorer at his position. Then there were big days from A.J. Green and Jeremy Maclin, who had also seen large decreases in salary. QUARTERBACK Aaron Rodgers - FD 9200 DK 7900 Starsdraft 8300 Opponent- SF Whereas the value of other fantasy football positions depends on workload volume, efficiency is crucial at the QB position. That’s what makes Aaron Rodgers a top play facing off against the 49ers, who are allowing a whopping 10.0 yards per pass attempt, worst in the NFL. Take advantage of the fact that Rodgers’ price didn’t increase despite a 333-yard, 5-TD shellacking of the Chiefs. Andrew Luck - FD 9100 DK 7800 Starsdraft 8500 Opponent- JAC Luck’s price is slowly declining and he’s in a good spot at home against a Jaguars defense that he shredded for 52-of-71 (73 percent) passing, 623 yards (8.8 yards/attempt), five TDs, and no picks in two meetings last season. The Jaguars didn’t get a true test Week 1 against Cam Newton, who ran on a third of his dropbacks, but gave up 359 yards and two TDs to Ryan Tannehill in Week 2 and 358 yards and two TDs to...

Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Starsdraft - Week 3 Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's week 3! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obviously, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft. Click here for a free 3 Day Free Trial Last week was a rough week for Vegas, and as a result, a rough week for selecting RBs and defenses in DFS. The Rams were an utter disappointment, but at least they put up positive points, something neither the Dolphins nor the Ravens can say, despite being huge favorites against perennial offensive lightweights in the Jaguars and Raiders, respectively. With that being said, now is a good time to emphasize a key to profitability in DFS: process over results, as my good friend Denny Carter likes to say. Vegas should be part of your process because over time, they have been incredibly accurate, and also highly predictive of fantasy production at the running back and defense positions. Will there be weeks where they get a few key spots wrong? Sure. But let’s not forget Vegas also had the Steelers with one of the highest totals on the slate – Ben Roethlisberger and DeAngelo Williams were fixtures is many a GPP winning lineup last week. Stick with the process and the results will come, which I can attest to. QUARTERBACK Tom Brady - FD 8700 DK 7700 Starsdraft 8800Opponent- JAC Brady has the highest floor this week, making him an ideal cash game play (you don’t need me to tell you he has upside as well after a 466-yard, 3-TD dismantling of one of the league’s best defenses in Buffalo). At over 30 points, the Patriots have the highest team total on the slate. The Jaguars allowed Ryan Tannehill to complete 30 of 44 passes for 359 yards and two TDs last week. Russell Wilson - FD 8400 DK 7000 Starsdraft 8800Opponent- CHI Wilson’s team has the second-highest Vegas total on the slate at 29 points – unusual for run-heavy Seattle. Wilson carries more risk than Brady, particularly because the Seahawks tend not need him to air the ball out as much at home, where they tend to have more success running than on the road. However, Wilson’s upside is tremendous because of the aforementioned Vegas total and his matchup against a Bears defense that has given up a 74 percent...

Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 2 Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's week 2! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obviously, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft. Click here for a free 3 Day Free Trial Those familiar with my work will know that I’m a proponent of looking at tournament upside in terms of how likely a player is to score multiple TDs, which is how Week 1’s Millionaire Maker was won. The winner, BALLAH, was able hit on four players that scored multiple TDs, plus a 3-TD outing by Tony Romo. All together, his lineup scored 14 TDs, and the only roster slot he didn’t get a TD out of was the Jets DST. FANDUEL SUNDAY MILLION WON WITH TOUCHDOWNS AS WELL. Jeremybronson, the winner of the FanDuel Sunday Million, also had four multi-TD scorers and a 3-TD QB, tallying 13 TDs in all. Always keep TD upside in mind when constructing GPP lineups, and even cash game lineups. Nothing swings fantasy football outcomes more than TDs. Target players who are the most likely to have the ball in their hands (high volume of opportunities) and see a decent share of the team’s red zone targets. NFL WEEK 2 PLAYS FOR FANDUEL AND DRAFTKINGS QUARTERBACK Drew Brees - FD 8900 DK 7800 Starsdraft 8100Opponent- TB Only two defenses allowed more 20-plus yard passing plays than the Bucs in Week 1, Drew Brees opponent in a game where the Saints are 10-point home favorites (Brees performs better historically at home, and when his team is a favorite) and have a 29-point Vegas total. Lovie Smith’s cover 2 scheme was a bottom-10 unit last season (23rd in pass defense DVOA) and started off even worse this season (32nd). Tampa Bay allowed four TDs, 13 yards/attempt, and a 25% TD rate to a rookie QB in his first start, Marcus Mariota. Matt Ryan - FD 8700 DK 7400 Starsdraft 7600Opponent- NYG The Giants allowed Tony Romo to complete 80 percent of his 45 passes at 7.9 yards per attempt last week, and offered no resistance when it mattered most against a Cowboys passing game that was by that time missing Dez Bryant. Matt Ryan should have no problem similarly carving the Giants up in a game Vegas oddsmakers expect to be close (Falcons +2.5) and high scoring (O/U...

Great Value Picks for Daily Fantasy NFL Football for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftPot - Week 2 Welcome to our first value picks and sleepers article of the 2015 NFL season! With a week under our belts, some players are already undervalued on DraftKings and FanDuel. Roles change more rapidly in NFL than they do anywhere else, leaving us a huge opportunity to get to cashing in. Here are some guys that our projection system likes that you might not see elsewhere. Want to find more sleepers and potential breakout daily fantasy football stars for the NFL in week 2? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft. Click here for a free 3 Day Free Trial QUARTERBACK Eli Manning - FD 8000 DK 7100 Starsdraft 7200Opponent- ATL E-sly is coming off an absolutely dreadful week 1 against the Cowboys, and the fantasy community is calling for his collective head. Our projection system? Not so much. Eli was inaccurate and generally terrible week 1, that much is true - but at this point he's priced at a level where you can fit a lot of great talent in around him. Atlanta, for their part, had the very worst defensive DVOA in the NFL last season (15.7%), and played a fast enough pace to where they allowed the highest yardage total as well. They also allowed the very highest yards per passing attempt in the NFL as well. Could Eli simply be aging? Sure. But at these prices, we can absolutely take a shot on him in big tournaments. Nick Foles - FD 6500 DK 5500 Starsdraft 6000Opponent- WAS Okay, so it felt pretty terrible summoning Nick Foles' name into this article. But let's just look at the numbers for a moment. Foles kind of tore up the Seahawks - a super-efficient 18/27 (66%) for 297 yards and a touchdown, spreading the ball out to 6 different receivers en route to leading the Rams to a win. And frankly, it looks pretty sustainable. He targeted running backs 12 of those 27 times, a ratio that will lead to a lot of efficient performances. The real kicker here is that it came against Seattle, a team that ranked #3 in defensive DVOA against the pass (-10.8%) and #1 for total defensive DVOA. In Week 2, Foles and the Rams will face the Redskins, who are essentially the exact opposite of the Seahawks. Their 29.5% defensive DVOA against the pass was dead last in the entire NFL. I think Foles will have another very efficient performance, and...