Week 14 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 12/10/20 We are starting Week 14 off with some action on the Thursday night game between the Rams and the Patriots.   Los Angeles RamsOpponent NERams -4.5 The Patriots are coming off a massive, 45-0 stomping of the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 13. And they have played better of late, winning four of their last five. But two of those wins were against a couple of the worst teams in the league, the Chargers and the Jets. They also somehow dropped one to the Texans. And of course, they still own a bottom-third defense. The Rams are an incredibly balanced team on the season. They rank 4th in offensive DVOA and 5th on defense. And the best part of their offensive game, running the ball, lines up well against the Patriots’ biggest deficiency: stopping the ground game. The Patriots rank 28th against the rush on the season. It stands to reason Sean McVay and company will grind down New England with the rush. All season, New England has tried to grind down teams with their own running game, trying to use Cam Newton’s legs while also leaning on guys like Damien Harris. And of late it’s worked having won four of their last five games. It hasn’t felt great (ever) betting against Bill Belichick, but let’s do it here. WIN   New Orleans SaintsOpponent PHISaints -7 The Saints head into Philadelphia this week with at least one more game of Taysom Hill under center. In the last three weeks, Hill has gone 3-0 though admittedly it wasn’t the toughest run of competition. They beat the Falcons twice and the Denver practice squad once. That being said, it doesn’t get much harder this week against the Eagles and Jalen Hurts’ first start. On the Hill side, there hasn’t been much of a drop-off in the offensive efficiency for the team and though the offense looks different, they’ve still managed to put up points relatively speaking. Meanwhile, the Eagles have struggled this season (understatement) and are now moving to a rookie quarterback in Jalen Hurts. Though Hurts did put tip yards through the air in his Week 13 debut, he was incredibly inefficient going 5-12. The Eagles likely reduce some of their sack issues, but it’s hard to imagine the offense taking a big leap here. New Orleans has the second-best defense in the league and should take advantage of Hurts’s inexperience.   Indianapolis Colts Opponent LVColts -3 Though the Colts and the Raiders are only separated in the standings by one game (Indy 8-5, LV 7-5) the seasons have been very different on paper. The Colts have outscored opponents by 55 points while...

Week 8 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 10/27/20 Plenty of early NFL betting action to get in on before lines more before Week 8. Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!   Los Angeles Chargers Opponent DENChargers -3 The Chargers didn’t make it always look easy, but they did end up with a 10-point road win over the lowly Jaguars on Sunday. It was their first win since Week 1 and Justin Herbert’s first W since taking over behind center for Tyrod Taylor. The team’s offense has looked more than confident over the last three weeks with close losses to very good Buccaneers and Saints teams in Weeks 5 and 6 respectively. But don’t overlook the defense, while the losses point to a unit looking for an identity, the schedule has been on the tougher side. This defense ranks 12th in defensive DVOA on the season even though the record would seem to point a different direction. This week, they’ll get the Broncos in Denver which has historically been a tough place to travel. But like we said last week with the Chiefs, this Broncos teams’ deficiencies more than offset any downgrade teams get going into the Mile High air of Denver. They got destroyed by the Chiefs last week following two straight wins, but those were over the Jets and the increasingly suspect looking New England Patriots. While the defense has looked competent at times, last week notwithstanding, the offense has been horrific no matter who’s been under center. Sure, it’s been a shaky ride with Lock out of the lineup for some games and the running back situation is hit or miss because of injuries (and otherwise). But this is a team without a ton of hope for improvement on the offensive end. They rank 31st in offensive DVOA. Meanwhile, I still think there’s room for growth on the Chargers’ end as Herbert becomes increasingly more comfortable. Even heading out on the road, it’s hard to imagine the Denver offense getting much of anything going here.   Tampa Bay BuccaneersOpponent NYGBuccaneers -10.5 We are starting to get to the point of the season where the separation between the haves and have nots becomes increasingly glaring. Such is the case with the Bucs and the Giants. While 10.5 is a huge number to give on the road, it’s worth noting that this season road teams are slightly outscoring home teams so the advantage of...