GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 6 on FanDuel and DraftKings Welcome back football fans. Earlier in the week, Doug went over the top cash game plays and then he and James broke down every single game on the Mega Podcast. I will take a look at some possible leverage plays in GPP formats that should come with low ownership. When projecting ownership for GPP purposes, I use the tools over at FanShareSports. They curate thousands of pieces of content in articles, tweets, videos, podcasts, etc and put it all together into easy to use tools for building DFS lineups. Check them out today and use promo code "DFSR" for 20% off your membership. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Nick Chubb FD 7800 DK 7300 Opponent SEA Proj Points FD - 18.07 DK - 19.47 The mid-range is where a lot of people will be going for running backs this week and it makes sense as the tier is loaded with talent in plus situations. The chalk in this range is most definitely going to flow to Leonard Fournette and Le'Veon Bell who both have 20+ tags on FanShare at the moment. After those two, I think ownership then falls on Mark Ingram in an excellent matchup. Projecting things out, there is then a fairly big gap of ownership that I think we can take advantage of with Nick Chubb who is likely going to be sub 10% owned in GPP formats. Like Fournette and Bell, Chubb gets a ton of volume sitting 5th overall in touches per game(21.8) and has made the most of them as he is also 4th in overall scrimmage yards per game(119.2). The Browns are a small home underdog(+1.5) against the Seahawks who have allowed the 4th fewest rushing yards to running backs but also the 2nd fewest attempts resulting in a mid-range 16th rank in DVOA against the rush. With the focus on Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry in the passing game, Chubb is also not going to see a lot of loaded boxes to shut him down. In no way is Chubb safe in this spot or safe for cash games but at half or a third of the ownership as others in the same range, I will take a shot with his enormous upside. Amari Cooper FD 8100 DK 7000 Opponent NYJ Proj Points FD - 14.73 DK - 17.62 Like I mentioned above, the mid-range running back tier is going to be popular this week which automatically pushes...

GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 5 on FanDuel and DraftKings Welcome back football fans. Doug went over his top cash game plays earlier in the week and he and Doug also previewed every single game on the slate on the DFSR Mega Podcast. What I will be doing now is breaking down some ownership projections and looking at some projected lower owned stacks that can help us get to GPP glory on Sunday. When projecting ownership for GPP purposes, I use the tools over at FanShareSports. They curate thousands of pieces of content in articles, tweets, videos, podcasts, etc and put it all together into easy to use tools for building DFS lineups. Check them out today and use promo code "DFSR" for 20% off your membership. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Jameis Winston FD 7600 DK 6200 Opponent NO Proj Points FD - 19.13 DK - 20.16 Mike Evans FD 7700 DK 7100 Opponent NO Proj Points FD - 13.69 DK - 16.01 My goal here is to pivot off the chalk wide receivers at the top this week. This includes DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones going up against one another, Keenan Allen the target monster, and even Bucs teammate Chris Godwin.  We may not get a discount with Winston(8%-12% projected in GPP) who has been out of this world lately throwing for 380 or more yards in back to back games with seven touchdowns, six of which have gone to Evans and Godwin. They now get another plus matchup against the Saints who rank 26th in DVOA vs. the pass and have allowed the sixth-most fantasy to wide receivers. What I see here from a leverage standpoint is that people are most likely going to be chasing the Godwin monster game last week(12 catches for 172 yards & 3 TD), especially given he is cheaper and has been more consistent overall catching 76% of his targets. Not that I won't have shares in this plus matchup but I love pivoting to Evans who has the same upside but is projected for half the ownership of Godwin and the gap is even larger when talking about Hopkins and Julio. I will have a ton of exposure to the Bucs offense overall, including Godwin who also makes a nice cash play, but will have most exposure pivoted to Evans in GPP formats.   Keesean Johnson FD 4600 DK 3500 Opponent CIN Proj Points FD - 7.59 DK - 9.16 One thing is very clear...

Passing Attacks to Target for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 2 on FanDuel and DraftKings James broke down his top DFS game plays earlier in the week and James Doug broke down every game in the Mega Podcast. Now it's time to look at some passing attacks to target in GPP formats. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes FD 9000 DK 7500 Opponent OAK Proj Points FD - 22.08 DK - 23.71 Travis Kelce FD 8000 DK 7300 Opponent OAK Proj Points FD - 14.17 DK - 17.81 Mecole Hardman FD 4700 DK 4800 Opponent OAK Proj Points FD - 6.96 DK - 8.56 Not much has to be said here from a talent standpoint as MVP Mahomes and company picked up right where they left off in 2018. They opened the 2019 season facing the 6th ranked DVOA defense from last year, the Jacksonville Jaguars, and pretty much waxed the floor with them despite losing Tyreke Hill in the first quarter. Mahomes went off for 378 yards and three touchdowns, all of which went to Sammy Watkins who stepped up in a big way with Hill's absence. He caught nine of a game-high 11 targets for a whopping 198 yards and pretty much broke the slate. As you can see from the list of players above I am going in a different direction this week and will be mostly fading Watkins and his likely high ownership due to recency bias. Instead, I will take the projected ownership discount and roll with rookie Mecole Hardman who should step into the Tyreke Hill role. There is definitely risk here as he is a rookie in his second game in the NFL and ended week one dropping his only target in a game where the Chiefs scored 40 points. The best part here is that he comes cheap under $5K on both sites and pairing him with Mahomes still allows you to pay up at running back and/or tight end. Speaking of, if Hardman appears to be mega chalk come Sunday morning(check FanshareSports) I will be pivoting a ton of exposure over to Kelce. Yes, he will be popular as well but is a proven elite player and the combination of Mahomes and Kelce is very expensive and likely outside the Top 3 highest owned two-man stacks which to me seems like a mistake considering the enormous upside. New Orleans Saints Drew Brees FD 8000 DK 6200 Opponent LAR Proj Points FD - 18.33 DK -...

Passing Attacks to Target for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 1 on FanDuel and DraftKings Week 1 is breathing down our necks, but we are going to have you all set with plenty of time to spare before that first kickoff on Sunday. We've given an early look at some way-too-early values and optimal lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings. There was also a look at rushing attacks and running backs to target based at Vegas Spreads and volume. Now, let's take a look at some of the top passing attacks who stand out as strong plays for week one. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs.  San Francisco 49ers Jameis Winston FD 7500 DK 6600 Opponent SF Proj Points FD - 19.81 DK - 20.49 Mike Evans FD 7900 DK 7900 Opponent SF Proj Points FD - 15.16 DK - 17.59 Chris Godwin FD 6900 DK 6200 Opponent SF Proj Points FD - 12.24 DK - 14.45 The Buccaneers posted a disappointing 5-11 record in 2018 but from a fantasy perspective, they were nearly an every-week target in the passing game. With one of the worst defenses in the league allowing 29 points per game (31st overall), they trailed so many games, forcing them to throw a ton (4th most attempts) and ended up leading the league with an average of 320.3 passing yards per game. Their defensive outlook is not a whole a lot better in 2019 so fire up the Bucs early and often. Their Week 1 matchup against the 49ers has the third-highest total (49) on the board. It starts at the quarterback position with Jameis Winston who is coming off an inconsistent season overall but finished strong (fantasy-wise) with back to back 300+ yards games. In fact, since taking over as starter again in Week 11, he had three 300+ yard games, four multi-TD games, and only three interceptions in the final six games (did not play week 17).  From Week 11 on, Jameis was QB5 in DraftKings points, and was an elite fantasy option. With a Bucs run game led by Peyton Barber, I am expecting a ton of attempts and Winston loves to chuck it deep (annually Top 10 in yards per attempt) adding to his upside. Despite finishing 13th in targets per game(8.7), Mike Evans ended up third behind only Julio and Hopkins with an average of 95.3 receiving yards per game and also posted a career-high 62.3% catch rate(53% average going into 2018 season). He makes contested catches...

Rushing Attacks to Target in Daily Fantasy NFL Week 1 for FanDuel and DraftKings We already covered some early looks at optimal NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings when both sites released prices. Now let's start drilling down a little further with some rushing attacks in EV+ spots for Week 1. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! A general rule of thumb in NFL DFS cash games is to begin targeting running backs and running attacks that are in advantageous situations. This is an oversimplification of course but there are some basic metrics we can look at ahead of time to determine whether a running back is in a "good spot." Vegas lines continue to tell us quite a lot about expectation leading into a game. The following two graphs show the Vegas spread a team entered a game with and where the average rushing attempts and yards landed. See that steady downward trajectory as the Vegas line became less favorable for a team? As a quick and dirty rule, we want to target running backs on the left side, those who are favored, preferably at home. It makes sense; teams who come in as heavy favorites are typically better, get a lead early and can run the game out late. Yes, there are diminishing returns for RB1s as the lead extends too far. At some point, teams will start giving their back-ups reps. But for the most part, we want our running backs to be on the favored team. Understanding all of this, there are some key spots that stand out for Week 1. Ravens -4.5 at Dolphins Lamar Jackson FD 7400 DK 6000 Opponent MIA Proj Points FD - 18.64 DK - 19.28 Mark Ingram FD 6600 DK 5100 Opponent MIA Proj Points FD - 11.69 DK - 12.69 From Week 11 on, when he took over the starting quarterback role for the Ravens, Lamar Jackson was 7th overall (that’s the entire NFL) in total rushing yards (556) from scrimmage and sixth in total carries (119). The Ravens’ running back Gus Edwards? He was fourth in both yards (654) and carries (122). The Ravens had a plan to keep it on the ground and it worked. They won six of their final seven games on their way to the playoffs. Rest assured they’ll take a similar approach this season. They enter the season as -4 home favorites against a Dolphins’ team gashed by the rush in 2018. Miami allowed the second-most total rushing yards and were...