DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 5/10/22 – All Day
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 5/10/22 - All Day Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Justin Verlander FD - P 10800 DK - SP 10400 Opponent - MIN (Joe Ryan) Park - MINFD - 41.41 DK - 23.04 Verlander hasn’t quite dialed up the K stuff this season, sitting at 8.5 K’s per nine through his first 32 innings. But he’s going longer into games than most pitchers at this point and is facing a Twins team that goes down on strikes at a well-above-average rate so far this season. Minnesota’s 3.1 implied run line is among the lowest on the slate and I don’t think Verlander is quite priced for what his floor is in this matchup. The K’s got dinged last game against Seattle, but he should be in line for more than a punch out an inning. Freddy Peralta FD 9400 DK 9300 Opponent - CIN (Hunter Greene) Park - CINFD - 39.05 DK - 21.34 The Reds have shown some signs of life lately, getting out of the basement on offense thanks to some decent games in the last week or so. But I’m not totally buying the long-term viability of this squad and think Peralta is in a tremendous spot. He’s not quite the right price because he’s been unlucky on the ERA side of things. But his 3.05 xFIP is two runs behind it and he’s striking out more than 11 batters per nine on the season. And at a -195 road favorite, he’s got some of the best win odds on the day. Lucas Giolito (FD $10300 DK $9700) is in a good spot against the Guardians today as money line favorite with a very low implied total. Catcher/First Base Brad Miller FD 2400 DK 2700 Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KCFD - 10.52 DK - 7.88 Miller should be in the leadoff slot for the Rangers on Tuesday when they face off against the righty Brad Keller. Don’t let the latter’s ERA fool you, he’s much more of an average pitcher who, though he keeps the ball on the ground, doesn’t generate anything in the way of strikeouts. Miller’s biggest issue is the swing and miss, something that’s greatly mitigated in this matchup. He’s coming off of a 20 home run season and is much better against righties for his career with a .773 OPS and 111 wRC+ in that split. Oh, and he’s coming very cheap on both sites which works...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 5/9/22
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 5/9/22 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Carlos Rodón FD - P 11100 DK - SP 10000 Opponent - COL (Austin Gomber) Park - SF FD - 39.91 DK - 21.93 The fact that Rodon gave up three hits and two earned runs and that was his worst start of this young season says everything about how elite he has been in 2022. In fact, he has yet to allow more than three hits in a start and has allowed just five total earned runs through five starts(1.55 ERA/2.72 xFIP) with a league-leading 37% K rate. The matchup is a tough one against the Rockies who are a Top 10 scoring offense but a lot of their stats come at home in Coors as they have a wOBA that is 50 points higher than on the road. Rodon is our top projected pitcher(raw points) on this slate and in play in all formats. Brandon Woodruff FD - P 10200 DK - SP 9300 Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - CIN FD - 39.94 DK - 21.71 There have been some ups and downs for Woodruff to start the 2022 season but he is an elite starting pitcher who is underpriced on both sites in this elite matchup. The Brewers open as -180 favorites in this game against the Reds who rank near the bottom of every hitting stat(.272 wOBA, 70 wRC+) including the 2nd worst K rate(26.5%) which Woodruff exposed for 12 K's in his last start. All things considered, Woodruff is our top projected PTS/$ pitcher on this slate. Also Consider: Paul Blackburn(OAK) as a value option on both sites who is having a terrific start to the year with a 2.22 ERA and equally impressive 2.49 XFIP Catcher/First Base Ty France FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 4200 Opponent - PHI (Ranger Suárez) Park - SEA FD - 13.76 DK - 10.49 The Mariners have fallen three games below .500 on the season but still have an above-average offense and draw a plus matchup on Monday. Ty France is in the midst of a breakout season as he enters Monday with .324/.392/.486 slash line with five home runs and 21 RBI. He faces off against Ranger Suarez who has given up 5+ hits in four of five starts and has struggled mightily against righties giving up a .415 wOBA and all four of his home runs. France is my top play at the...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 5/6/22
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 5/6/22 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Gerrit Cole FD 10000 DK 9700 Opponent - TEX (Glenn Otto) Park - TEXFD - 48.38 DK - 27.56 Cole has the best win odds on the day, sitting at -212 at home against the Rangers. He hasn’t been quite as lights out as in other years though he’s still striking out more than 10 batters per nine. But the xFIP is up some and so are the walks. I don’t think there are crazy reasons for concern here, and Vegas doesn’t seem all that worried about it, but it at least warrants mentioning. Cole isn’t going to crush you on the price for either site and I expect he’ll be one of the more popular plays here. Max Scherzer FD 10800 DK 10500 Opponent - PHI (Kyle Gibson) Park - PHIFD - 41.88 DK - 23.57 It’s not a necessity, but I think we are going to want to go double expensive with our arms on this slate considering there are some real aces taking the mound on Friday. Scherzer has been electric once again this season, striking out more than 12 batters per nine and rocking a 2.61 xFIP. He’s one of the reasons the Mets have been so good this year and he comes in as a -140 road favorite against the Phillies with a 7 over/under. It’s not the best matchup on the slate, but Scherzer is arguably the best pitcher overall so it makes it a bit easier to stomach. Catcher/First Base Christian Walker FD 2400 DK 3300 Opponent - COL (Chad Kuhl) Park - COLFD - 10.15 DK - 7.69 We don’t usually go super cheap at first base, but we have a couple of expensive arms in great spots today so savings with the hitters is going to take precedence. Walker already has six home runs on the season and is on the way to the best power numbers of his career. He’s also walking 10% of the time and getting by despite the .133 BABIP being about as bad as it gets. I think some positive regression in that department and we are buying way low on this guy. Carson Kelly FD 2200 DK 3400 Opponent - COL (Chad Kuhl) Park - COLFD - 9.55 DK - 7.18 To fit a couple of the expensive pitchers into lineups on DraftKings (or one on FanDuel) we are going to need to try and...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 5/5/22(Main Slate)
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 5/5/22 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Shane McClanahan FD 10100 DK 9700 Opponent - SEA (Robbie Ray) Park - SEA FD - 37.83 DK - 20.38 The days of getting McClanahan as a value pitcher are long gone as he is quickly becoming one of the more dominant ace pitchers in baseball that nobody knows about. He posted a terrific 3.43 ERA/3.23 xFIP last season and has been even better through five starts this year with a 3.00 ERA and a sparkling 1.57 xFIP. That isn't even what stands out the most, however, as he is coming off an 11 strikeout effort against the Twins pushing his K rate up to 39.3% on the season. He now gets a plus matchup against a struggling Mariners team that has lost seven of their last eight games while scoring just 2.4 runs a game and striking out 25% of the time. McClanahan is our top pitcher in all formats tonight. Miles Mikolas FD 9600 DK 8200 Opponent - SF (Logan Webb) Park - SF FD - 29.89 DK - 15.1 Not nearly as dominant from a strikeout and upside perspective but Miles Mikolas has been having a solid start to the year and comes at a nice mid-range price on both sites. After struggling in his first start, he has been near-elite giving up just three earned runs, striking out 24, walking just two, and averaging 39.8 FD/23.3 DK points per game. The matchup doesn't stand out on paper as the Giants rank mid-pack in most categories and strikeout league average(23%) but have lost four of their last five games. Mikolas is my top SP2 on DraftKings and a terrific option on FanDuel in all formats if you are looking to get more bats in your lineup. Catcher/First Base Trey Mancini FD 2700 DK 3000 Opponent - MIN (Chris Archer) Park - MIN FD - 8.64 DK - 6.61 There is no one team that stands out above the rest on this slate but there is one game that stands out with two starting pitchers, more than due for regression, facing off. Let's pick on Chris Archer first as he enters the night with a tidy 2.93 ERA that I do not believe in at all considering the xFIP(4.87) that is nearly two runs higher along with the very unsustainable .200 BABIP against. For the Orioles, I start with Mancini who is at near punt prices on both...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday, 5/4/22
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday, 5/4/22 Tuesday's slate was annoying with all of the rainouts, but we finally saw some offense! It's been a struggle for most of these teams to hit through the opening month, but the weather is getting warmer, which means the bats are getting hotter. The scoring will pick up as we progress, and it'll be fun to watch some of these struggling bats turn it around. With that said, let's kick things off with one of the hottest pitchers in baseball! Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Justin Verlander FD - P 10800 DK - SP 10100 Opponent - SEA (Matt Brash) Park - HOU FD - 41.86 DK - 23.26 I wasn't so sure how Verlander would look after a year off due to Tommy John surgery, but the future Hall-of-Famer looks as good as ever. The 39-year-old has a 1.73 ERA and 0.69 WHIp through the first four starts of the season. That's the stud we've seen for well over a decade, with JV amassing a 3.31 ERA and 1.13 WHIP for his career. It's not like Seattle is a scary matchup either, sending out a bunch of underachieving prospects night after night. That was on full display when Verlander threw eight scoreless innings against them just two weeks ago. That has him entering this matchup as a -200 favorite, with the Mariners projected for just 3.3 runs. Freddy Peralta FD - P 8800 DK - SP 8900 Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - MIL FD - 42.21 DK - 23.06 To say Cincinnati is the best matchup in baseball is a drastic understatement. Most Little League pitchers would abuse this lineup, with the Reds ranked dead-last in OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA. They literally have three wins! All of that makes Peralta one of the best plays on the board, generating a 3.19 ERA and 1.03 WHIP since 2020. His strikeout stuff is even more impressive, recording 265 Ks across those 192 innings. That should put him in line to mow down this horrific Reds lineup, with Peralta providing a 0.97 WHIP and 10.9 K/9 rate in four starts against them last season. The oddsmakers agree, making Peralta a -250 favorite, in a game with a 7.5-run total. Elieser Hernandez (FD $7200/DK $8100) is a great punt play against an atrocious Arizona lineup. Catcher/First Base C.J. Cron FD - 1B 4000 DK - 1B 5600 Opponent - WSH (Patrick Corbin) Park - COL FD - 14.06...