GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 14 on FanDuel and DraftKings
GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 14 on FanDuel and DraftKings Welcome back football fans. Earlier in the week, James broke down his favorites cash game targets and then teamed up with Doug for the Mega Podcast where they broke down every single game and fantasy-relevant play. I will now be taking a look at some GPP pivots based on ownership projections. Let's get started! When projecting ownership for GPP purposes, I use the tools over at FanShareSports. They curate thousands of pieces of content in articles, tweets, videos, podcasts, etc and put it all together into easy to use tools for building DFS lineups. Check them out today and use promo code "DFSR" for 20% off your membership. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Sony Michel FD 6600 DK 5600 Opponent KC Proj Points FD - 9.21 DK - 9.38 Phillip Lindsay FD 6400 DK 5300 Opponent HOU Proj Points FD - 12.17 DK - 13.36 I am going to start this week with a pair of mid-range running backs who make nice GPP pivots off the chalk in this range. Yes, I am talking about Devonta Freeman and James White who have both exceeded 30 tags on FanShareSports at this point in the week. Let's start with Sony Michel who has been very inconsistent all season with some of the blame falling on him as he is down from 4.5 to 3.5 yards per carry in comparison to last year. I say some of the blame as from a fantasy perspective, the volume has been hit or miss which we shouldn't be surprised by in the Pats backfield. This game also has the highest total on the slate and the Chiefs rank 30th in DVOA against the run and dead last in fantasy points per game given up to running backs. What does this mean? A lot of volume and opportunity to hit the ceiling game at a discounted ownership. I don't even mind pairing him with White in some GPP builds and either way, I will have plenty of exposure to the Pats backfield this week. You can tell by these picks that I love the punishment of watching running back committee's on Sunday afternoon. This leads us to Phillip Lindsay who, like Michel, has been inconsistent for fantasy sharing the ball with Royce Freeman but has still impressed gaining 4.7 yards per carry and catching 78% of his targets. The Broncos are nine-point underdogs in this one but the matchup does stand...
GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 13 on FanDuel and DraftKings
GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 13 on FanDuel and DraftKings Welcome back football fans. Earlier in the week, Doug went over his top cash plays in the Cash Game Article and then he teamed up with James as they broke down every game in the NFL Mega Podcast. I will now take a look at some possible low-owned leverage plays that can help us separate ourselves in large field GPP's. Let's get started! When projecting ownership for GPP purposes, I use the tools over at FanShareSports. They curate thousands of pieces of content in articles, tweets, videos, podcasts, etc and put it all together into easy to use tools for building DFS lineups. Check them out today and use promo code "DFSR" for 20% off your membership. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Mark Ingram FD 7500 DK 6000 Opponent SF Proj Points FD - 13.87 DK - 14.27 Looking at the top tier running backs, it appears the ownership will mostly be sitting with four backs(McCaffrey, Fournette, Barkley, Bell) who are all projected for double-digit ownership. That opens some opportunities to pivot in GPP and I will start with Mark Ingram who is on pace for a career-year in 2019. He comes into this game averaging 5.2 yards per carry which has a lot to do with the holes created by the elite running ability of Lamar Jackson but you also have to consider Ingram is averaging over 3.0 yards per carry after contact. While the matchup against the 49ers #2 overall DVOA defense does not seem like a great spot to target consider that they have been elite against the pass(#2 DVOA pass defense) but just league-average against the run(#16 DVOA rush defense). The Ravens go into this marquee matchup as 5.5-point home favorites in a game with the fourth-highest total(45.5) on the slate. Ingram has currently only seen a few tags on FanShareSports and if that trend continues he will likely be around 5% or less owned in GPP's and a great pivot with a ton of upside. Tyreek Hill FD 8300 DK 8900 Opponent OAK Proj Points FD - 17.63 DK - 20.75 The wide receiver position is an interesting one on this shortened main slate due to the three games on Thanksgiving and two more on Sunday and Monday night. There is no Thomas, Cooper, Julio, Diggs, Lockett, Edelman, or Hopkins. With all those names missing from the main slate, Tyreek Hill sits atop the wideout salary and by a sizeable...
GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 12 on FanDuel and DraftKings
GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 12 on FanDuel and DraftKings Welcome back football fans. James covered the top cash game plays for Week 12 in his Cash Game Article and then Doug joined him on the Mega Podcast where they broke down every game and relevant DFS play. I will now take a look at some leverage plays that could be possibly low owned making them excellent GPP plays. Let's get started. When projecting ownership for GPP purposes, I use the tools over at FanShareSports. They curate thousands of pieces of content in articles, tweets, videos, podcasts, etc and put it all together into easy to use tools for building DFS lineups. Check them out today and use promo code "DFSR" for 20% off your membership. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! James White FD 6100 DK 5300 Opponent DAL Proj Points FD - 9.8 DK - 12.02 I will start with James White who won't be extremely low owned but at 13th in tags on FanShare, will most definitely be outside the Top 10 in ownership at the position. With the Patriots sitting as 6.5-point home favorites, you would think the game script would favor Sony Michel but he has been absolutely terrible lately averaging just 41.8 rushing yards per game over his last four games. While White has not flashed big-game upside yet in 2019 he has been very consistent averaging 12.9 DK/10.3 FD points per game on just 9.4 touches per game. The matchup also favors White over Michel as the Cowboys 17th ranked DVOA rush defense has allowed the 11th fewest rushing yards to running backs but the 6th most receiving yards. With the consistency and lack of mid-range options with that tag, I would consider White a cash-game play and feel we could also see the ceiling game at a reduced ownership which is perfect for GPP formats. Joe Mixon FD 6700 DK 5900 Opponent PIT Proj Points FD - 13.07 DK - 14.08 Everything about this game says stay away for fantasy as it has the second-lowest Vegas total(38.5) on the slate between two teams who rank bottom 5 in pace on the season. While I 100% agree with the fade for cash games, I think there is some opportunity to get some very low ownership on a talented player in Joe Mixon. It has been a roller coaster ride for Mixon all season in terms not only production but usage as well but the good news is that...
GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 9 on FanDuel and DraftKings
GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 9 on FanDuel and DraftKings Welcome back football fans. The boys went over their top Cash Game Plays earlier in the week and also broke down every single game on the Mega Podcast. Now, I will take a look at some leverage plays that we can use in GPP formats to help build unique lineups. When projecting ownership for GPP purposes, I use the tools over at FanShareSports. They curate thousands of pieces of content in articles, tweets, videos, podcasts, etc and put it all together into easy to use tools for building DFS lineups. Check them out today and use promo code "DFSR" for 20% off your membership. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Christian McCaffrey FD 9700 DK 10000 Opponent TEN Proj Points FD - 22.39 DK - 24.62 With Dalvin Cook, Lev Bell, and even Aaron Jones coming with a big discount and in much better matchups I think this is another situation where we can get the best fantasy player in the NFL outside the Top 5 in ownership at the position. He was sub 15% on DraftKings last week facing arguably the best defense in the league(SF) and still put up 30 DraftKings/25 FanDuel points. On the season, he has provided an elite floor leading the league with 25.7 touches and 154 scrimmage yards per game. As you would expect, the upside is also through the roof as he has shown us 5x upside on DK/4.5x upside on FD and while the Titans rank 2nd in DVOA vs. the rush, they have struggled against pass-catching backs allowing the 7th most receiving yards to the position. By no means do I think CMac comes as low owned s last week but I think he is still sub 20% and outside the Top at the position making him a terrific pivot in GPP formats. *Update - McCaffrey has seen some big trends up in tag counts since I wrote this piece but still feel he will be lower owned than the options I mentioned* Courtland Sutton FD 6400 DK 5800 Opponent CLE Proj Points FD - 11.41 DK - 13.49 If you are looking for ultra-low ownership this week for large GPP's, Courtland Sutton is surrounded by wideouts(D.K. Metcalf, Tyrell Williams, Marvin Jones, John Brown) who will garner 10-15% ownership. Adding to the projected low ownership is the fact Sutton lost his starting quarterback, Joe Flacco, for the season leaving a fairly unknown Brandon Allen under...
GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 7 on FanDuel and DraftKings
GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 7 on FanDuel and DraftKings Welcome back football fans. Doug and James covered the top cash games plays earlier in the week and also broke down every game from a fantasy perspective on the weekly Mega Podcast. In this article, I am going to look at a couple of leverage plays for us to pivot to in GPP formats to get lower ownership. When projecting ownership for GPP purposes, I use the tools over at FanShareSports. They curate thousands of pieces of content in articles, tweets, videos, podcasts, etc and put it all together into easy to use tools for building DFS lineups. Check them out today and use promo code "DFSR" for 20% off your membership. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Matt Breida FD 5600 DK 5300 Opponent WAS Proj Points FD - 10.78 DK - 11.64 Of those four teams on bye in Week 7, we lose a ton of running back talent in Nick Chubb, James Conner, and Christian McCaffrey. This combined with some plus matchups really narrows the field of top running backs and will naturally raise their ownership levels but on the flip side also presents some opportunities to pivot off the chalk(Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Chris Carson, Saquon Barkley). Even in the mid-range, there are some pivots as Latavius Murray is gaining steam with Kamara being ruled out. My pivot in this range will be with Matt Breida who appears could be about half the ownership of his own teammate Tevin Coleman. The 49ers get an excellent matchup against a Redskins team that has given up the 10th most rushing yards and 5th most receiving yards to running backs. Coleman is going to get the bulk of the carries(34-24 last two weeks) but Breida is the preferred passing-down back. Either way, both backs should get a ton of work this week with the 49ers a 10-point favorite against a weak defense and they run(57%) more than any other team in the league. I also like to see that the combined rushing/receiving yards prop for Breida is actually set a yard higher than Coleman. I will have exposure to both running backs in this matchup but if Breida continues to be projected for half the ownership, I may run more of a 70/30 split between them. Adam Thielen FD 7100 DK 6900 Opponent DET Proj Points FD - 13.17 DK - 15.8 Brandin Cooks FD 6700 DK 5400 Opponent ATL Proj Points...