Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 12 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not safe plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Running Back The Chalk - Wayne Gallman, Salvon Ahmed The Pivot  Nyheim Hines FD 5700 DK 4600 Opponent TEN Proj Points FD - 9.04 DK - 10.73 I will start off with a perfect example of recency bias and how we can attack it in GPP formats. At his highest ownership of the season last week(12-13% in GPP), Hines let everyone down with just 33 total yards and eight fantasy points. He is now in the same price range as projected chalk value running backs Wayne Gallman and Salvon Ahmed which should easily have his ownership back down in the 5% range and if that's the case, I definitely want a piece of the action. He went off two weeks ago against these very Titans and at these prices has hit 4x or greater value on DraftKings three times. It is a crowded backfield but the low ownership also means we don't need a ton of exposure to get leverage on the field.   Wide Receiver The Chalk - Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson The Pivot Calvin Ridley FD 8100 DK 7100 Opponent LV Proj Points FD - 15.33 DK - 18.39 The wide receiver position provides us an excellent opportunity for leverage in top tier as Calvin Ridley sits right in the middle of multiple chalk plays in terms of pricing. He made his return last week against a very good Saints defense adn caught five of nine targets for 90 yards. He and teh Falcons now get a home matchup vs. the Raiders in a game with the second-highest total(55) on the slate. As for the matchup, the Raiders have allowed the 12th most receiving yards and 15th most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Since the game when the Raiders completely shut down the Browns, things have gotten worse as they have given up the following to the opponents top pass catchers over the last three weeks:...

Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for Thanksgiving Day on FanDuel and DraftKings Week 12 Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterbacks Deshaun Watson FD 8700 DK 7400 Opponent DETProj Points FD - 22.23 DK - 22.96 Watson is right back to being the fantasy-QB1 type we were used to last season. Since Bill O’Brien was fired after Week 4, Watson has been the fourth-highest fantasy scoring quarterback behind only Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes. That’s rarified air, and he’s coming off his best week yet with 344 yards and two touchdowns through the air and another 36 yards and a touch on the ground against the Patriots. The Lions are the 25th-ranked defense on the season allowing opponents to do damage on both the ground and through the air. Watson is far and away the cash game quarterback on this slate and I suspect he’s chalk on both sites. Alex Smith FD 6700 DK 5400 Opponent DALProj Points FD - 18.91 DK - 19.92 Since taking over for Kyle Allen 2.5 weeks ago Smith has returned to his previous efficient self, completing 71% of his passes. The touchdowns haven’t exactly followed with only two over the last three weeks as compared to four interceptions. But those picks are a little lumpy with three of them coming in the game against the Giants when he came in for Allen. The yards aren’t going to accumulate in big ways because he’s still reliant on under throws and doesn’t stretch the field all that much. But he’s facing the 20th-ranked defense this week and a team in the Cowboys who rank 21st in opponent plays per game. This is a pace-up matchup for the Redskins and Smith isn’t cost prohibitive. Also consider Lamar Jackson whose price has continued to drop this season. With the running backs banged up and Baltimore in a precarious playoff position, it stands to reason we see Jackson get out in the run game more this week. The problem is the matchup against the Steelers who own the best defense in football through 11 weeks.  Running Backs Ezekiel Elliott FD 8500 DK 6800 Opponent WASProj Points FD - 15.8 DK - 17.14 The Cowboys actually looked like a functional offense on Sunday, stealing a somewhat surprising win over the Vikings. Will it carry over? They face a Washington defense that’s been surprisingly good this season, ranking 7th in DVOA though is significantly...

Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 11 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not safe plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterback The Chalk - Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Ben Roethlisberger The Pivot Aaron Rodgers FD 9000 DK 7000 Opponent IND Proj Points FD - 17.6 DK - 18.01 I am going to start at the quarterback position this week as I feel there is some terrific leverage here. First of all, I see all three chalk quarterbacks listed above being popular this week, especially Herbert in an elite spot vs. the Jets. This should help push Rodgers ownership down which was already projected lower due to the matchup vs. the Colts who rank 2nd in passing yards per game allowed and 1st in fantasy points allowed to the QB position. I am not worried for multiple reasons starting with the fact the Colts have only played against one team(TEN #2) ranked inside the Top 15 in DVOA passing offense and only four teams ranked inside the Top 20. Three times they have given up 20+ DK points to a QB and they were Stafford(Week 8), Burrow(Week 6), Minshew(Week 1) and Aaron Rodgers is *cough cough* a much better quarterback than all three of those(very tough to get that out being a Vikings fan). For Rodgers, outside of the Tampa game, he has been terrific this season tallying 19+ DK points in every game, scoring 25+ six times, and 29+ four times. He is gifted an elite wideout in Davante Adams and an elite running back in Aaron Jones who is also a top pass-catching back. Finally, I found this very interesting from Zach Kruse on Twitter and it aligns as GB is ranked #3 in pass protection while the Colts pass rush is ranked 15th this season. #Packers QB Aaron Rodgers when kept clean in the pocket in 2020, per @PFF: – 83.7 adjusted completion percentage (5th) – 25 touchdown passes (1st) – 130.0 passer rating (1st) Kept clean on 77.2% of dropbacks (2nd) — Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) November 20, 2020 I am absolutely...

Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 10 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not always the safest plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! QB/WR Stack The Chalk - Jared Goff/Cooper Kupp, Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs, Deshaun Watson/Brandin Cooks, Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams The Pivot Russell Wilson FD 8900 DK 7700 Opponent LAR Proj Points FD - 22.71 DK - 23.16 DK Metcalf FD 8300 DK 7600 Opponent LAR Proj Points FD - 16.35 DK - 19.1 Looking at the buzz around the industry, Week 10 brings us a terrific opportunity to jump on board an elite QB/WR stack that could be the lowest owned we have seen them in some time. The projected low ownership comes from a combination of a below-average matchup for the Seahawks pass game and terrific matchups for the four chalk stacks I listed above. While the matchup is tough vs. Rams who rank 10th in DVOA against the pass and 2nd in fantasy points against both QB and WR, this game has the second-highest total(55.5) on the slate and is primed for a high-scoring game. The Seahawks also own the league's #1 passing offense(298.1 yards per game) Wilson and Metcalf have also been one of the most consistent and highest-upside stacks in the league as they have combined for 40+ DK points in seven of eight games and 50+ in six of eight. I also like the upside when looking at the advanced stats as Wilson is 5th among starting quarterbacks in air yards per attempt and Metcalf is 10th in aDOT(average depth of target) of players with 25+ targets on the season. The results from those opportunities have shown as well as Wilson leads the league in completions of 40+ yards(9) with Metcalf receiving four of those which also leads all wideouts. Both Wilson and Metcalf project to be lower than 10% owned in GPP formats and if that holds as we approach lineup lock, I will be loading up and in search of GPP glory! Running Back The Chalk - Aaron Jones, Mike Davis, Alvin Kamara, Chase Edmonds, James Conner...

Week 10 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 11/12/20 Plenty of NFL betting action to get in on for Week 10 after a 2-1 record in the article. Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!   Texans Opponent CLEHOU +3It’s tough taking teams who have been, well pretty bad this season. That’s definitely the case with the Texans who fired their head coach/GM midseason and sport a 2-6 record with the only two wins over the lowly Jaguars. That is far from a great resume though it’s worth noting they had a brutal stretch to start the season against the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, and (to some extent) the Vikings.By opposing record, the Texans have the 8th most difficult schedule this season. It’s for sure been a rough go of it. But they remain an above-average DVOA offense and still have Deshaun Watson under center. This is worth something. The defense ranks poorly, but they’ve had the second-hardest schedule in terms of the offensive opponent which does help explain some of that. Meanwhile, the Browns' 5-3 record is a lot of smoke and mirrors. They have a -31 point differential on the season despite the 20th most difficult schedule on the season. Both the offense (17th in DVOA) and defense (19th) are below average this season. Records aside these two teams aren’t all that different with the Houston passing offense making up for the lack of effort on the defensive end. I’m a little concerned with the Houston motivation her considering the record has gone off the rails, but by the numbers, I see this as more of a pick’em. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Opponent CARTB -5.5 It was a rough scene for the Buccaneers in Week 9 with them losing control of the game early against the Saints and ultimately getting dumpstered 38-3. It’s hard to know what to make of that game and whether it’s just a blip on the radar for a team that was 6-2 coming in. It’s not excusable, but one game doesn’t a season make. They struggled to get going on the ground and really couldn’t do anything on offense. But despite that performance, this Bucs team still ranks first overall in DVOA defense on the season and are well above average on offense. This is still a very good team that had a very bad week. Meanwhile, Carolina has sported one of the league’s worst defenses this season, ranking 26th while...