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Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings – Week 4

Posted by on Oct 3, 2020 in featured, Football Strategy, Uncategorized |

Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 4 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not safe plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Lamar Jackson FD 9600 DK 8100 Opponent WAS Proj Points FD - 22.89 DK - 23.43 The chalk at the quarterback position this week should fall on Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Kyle Murray, and even Josh Allen to an extent. That leaves a huge hole in ownership at the top of the salary where the last two league MVP's sit. I lean Lamar Jackson here with the new unknown in the Pats/Chiefs game as Cam Newton came down with a positive COVID test. Stay tuned for more news there. For Lamar, on top of all the other quarterbacks in great spots his performance against the Chiefs on Monday Night Football helps drive that ownership projection down, as well. The Chiefs are really the only team to hold that has held Lamar in check(twice) over the past two years so I am really not too concerned. While the matchup may not seem that great on the surface as Washington ranks 5th in passing yard per game allowed, they rank 19th in fantasy points per game allowed to QB's. As you would suspect, a lot of that ranking also comes from rushing as they have given up the 9th most rushing yards to QB's and that is where a ton of Lamar's upside lies. I would not be surprised to see Lamar rebound in a huge way rushing for 100+ yards and tallying multiple touchdowns leading to a spot in the optimal GPP lineup this week. The best part is that at low ownership we don't need a ton of exposure in our multi-entry builds to have more than the field. Let's buckle up and hope for more post-game interviews like this. Devin Singletary FD 6000 DK 5900 Opponent LV Proj Points FD - 10.59 DK - 12.16 At the running back position, Devin Singletary is another player who is projected to have low ownership despite a terrific matchup. With rookie Zack Moss ruled out in...

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Week 4 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 10/1/20

Posted by on Oct 1, 2020 in NFL Betting |

Week 4 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 10/1/20 Recapping last week, these were bets put out in our article along with those given away in our members-only chatroom. Rams - Bills Over 47.5 (W) Ravens -3.5 (L) Ravens - Chiefs Over 53.5 (W) Broncos +6 (L) Texans +4 (L) 49ers - Giants over 42 (W) Overall Week 3 Record 3-3 Season Record 10-7 Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Dallas Cowboys Opponent CLE Cowboys -4.5 It’s been a weird start for the Cowboys this season. They lost a barn-burner against a good Ram’s team, pulled out a shootout against the Falcons who give it up to everyone and then lost to Russell Wilson’s brilliance. Yes, they have a slightly negative point differential, but the two losses don’t look all that bad considering the opponent. I do think better things are in store for them going forward and they get a decent matchup against the Browns this week. Meanwhile, the Browns lost to the Ravens in Week 1, but then beat a couple of bottom-feeders in the Bengals and Redskins. So evaluating these two teams on strength of schedule would still have the Cowboys with a slight edge. The Cowboys have played the 4th hardest schedule to start the season with the Browns ranked 24th. And between that, and the public nature of the team, you are paying a little bit of a premium to bet on them this week. But that’s just what we’re going to do. The offense should have very little issue putting up points against a Browns’ defense due for some regression here. And the Cowboys defense has been much better against the run this season compared to the pass which should stymie some of the Browns’ attack. Chicago Bears Opponent IND Bears +2.5 Bears - Colts OVER 43 The Colts are 2-1 though their schedule has been about as easy as it gets with the Jaguars (loss) in Week 1 followed by a stumbling Vikings’ team and the brutal Jets. So sure, 2-1 seems okay but it isn’t like they’ve run the gauntlet. Meanwhile, the Bears haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row either with wins over the Lions, Giants and Falcons. So while this is a matchup between the number one and number six ranked DVOA defenses so far to start the season, we also know that it isn’t schedule-adjusted yet. All this being said, the Bears made a quarterback...

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Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings – Week 3

Posted by on Sep 26, 2020 in Football Strategy |

Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 3 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not safe plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Matt Ryan FD 7800 DK 6600 Opponent CHI Proj Points FD - 18.56 DK - 19.34 I am going to start at the quarterback position where it appears Matt Ryan is going to not just be low owned overall but could be lower owned than Mitch Trubisky in the same game. Repeat that to yourself and let's dive in. While I do like the value with Trubisky on DraftKings in the sub $6K range, Ryan has more upside and has shown that early on this season. First of all, he is second overall in passing attempts(90)thanks to a defense(78 points against) that can't stop a high school team. He has also been very effective throwing for 723 yards and six touchdowns, as well. In terms of value, he has hit at least 4.2x on DraftKings and 3.2x on FanDuel in each game. That is GPP winning upside that we can possibly get at 2%-5% ownership. Sure, some might be scared of the matchup but this is not the 85' Bears and did give up 297 passing yards to Stafford and almost 241 yards to Daniel Jones who lost his top wideout and running back. I am not convinced this is still an elite defense and either does Vegas, to be honest, as this game has one of the highest totals(48) on the slate. I will most definitely be taking a few shots in GPP with Ryan. Favorite Stack with Matt Ryan: Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage Nick Chubb FD 7800 DK 6900 Opponent WAS Proj Points FD - 13.49 DK - 13.88 Kareem Hunt FD 6200 DK 6100 Opponent WAS Proj Points FD - 12.62 DK - 14.21 Next up is the Cleveland backfield that is being completely overlooked this week. Let's talk about the matchup first as it is what seems to be scaring most people as they face a Washington Football Team that has allowed the 9th fewest rushing yards to running backs...

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Week 3 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 9/24/20 – Ravens and Broncos look to have value.

Posted by on Sep 24, 2020 in NFL Betting |

  Week 3 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 9/24/20 Recapping last week, these were bets put out in our article along with those given away in our members-only chatroom. Cardinals -6.5 (W)Vikings +3 (L)Giants-Bears Over 43 (L)Panthers +9 (L - This one was brutal)Dolphins +6 (W)Chargers +9 (W)Patriots-Seahawks Over 45 (W)Saints-Raiders Over 48.5 (W)Overall Week 2 Record 5-3 Season Record 7-4 Also check out our Week 3 cash game plays as well as our Week 3 injury breakdown. Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Baltimore RavensOpponent KCBAL -3.5OVER 53.5 (-115)The Ravens have picked up this regular season right where they left off last year: dominating. They are already +49 on the season through two games, 19 points better than the next-closest team. Sure, it was the Browns and Texans, though I’d contend those aren’t really bottom-feeders. The Ravens have just had no issues making easy work of mostly everyone over their last 18 regular-season games.   Meanwhile, the Chiefs came out gunning to start the season against the aforementioned Texans, but barely squeaked out a victory over Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2. It took overtime, a stop and a long field goal to bring home the W. This bet isn’t an overreaction to that performance, but rather some recognition that Baltimore has a gameplan which is problematic for the Chiefs. Namely, they can control the ball for long stretches and KC hasn’t solved one of their bigger “weaknesses” from last season: stopping the run.   Expect Lamar Jackson and company to keep the ball on the ground consistently with a lot of different looks. KC allowed 167 yards on the ground to the Chargers in Week 2 and 124 to Houston in Week 1 on close to six yards per carry. But even that said, there are still a lot of paths to hitting the over as well. A tight game almost assuredly has both teams keeping their feet on the proverbial gas and it stands to reason KC will want to air it out to keep the pressure on the Baltimore attack to take it to the air. BroncosOpponent TBBoncos +6 Over the last two+ seasons, the average away team score when coming into Denver is a meager 18.8 points. Part of that is a solid Denver defense in the last couple of years, but it’s also just really tough to fly in and play in the Denver...

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Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings – Week 2

Posted by on Sep 18, 2020 in Daily Fantasy Sports Strategy, featured, Football Strategy, Sports Betting |

Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 2 If you are looking for football content, you have come to the right place. Our DFS NFL team has already gone over our top Cash Game Plays, discussed our Top Bets, went over all of the Injury News, and broke everything down on the Game by Game Podcast. In this article, I will now be looking at a few GPP plays that we can use for leverage to try and take down a big contest. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Saquon Barkley FD 9000 DK 8400 Opponent CHI Proj Points FD - 17.72 DK - 20.16 If you are not paying up for McCaffrey you are likely running one or two of Zeke and Henry in the top tier and that leaves a giant gap of ownership with Saquon Barkley. Last week's performance(15 carries for 6 yards) definitely isn't going help me make a case here from a performance perspective but the good news is that he did catch six of nine targets for 60 yards, somewhat salvaging his price tag. We know the upside he provides as one of the best running backs in football and gets to now go up against a Bears defense that is not as scary as some make it out to be as they just gave up 93 rushing yards to a 35-year-old Adrian Peterson on just 14 carries(6.6 yards per rush). At the end of the day, I am not going to trust him in cash games but if we are getting him around 5% ownership, I think he makes an excellent GPP play. At that kind of ownership, we also don't need a lot of exposure to have more than the field and take advantage of his ceiling game.   Philip Rivers FD 7100 DK 5900 Opponent MIN Proj Points FD - 15.24 DK - 16.17 T.Y. Hilton FD 6300 DK 5700 Opponent MIN Proj Points FD - 11.7 DK - 14.33 Parris Campbell FD 5300 DK 4500 Opponent MIN Proj Points FD - 10.04 DK - 12.57 From a stacking perspective, I love the Colts this week and don't think they see a whole lot of ownership with Lamar, Dak, Kyler, Rodgers, and even Matt Ryan in good spots. When looking at the Colts team and projected ownership, I think Nyheim Hines has a chance to be the highest owned on the team with Marlon Mack hitting the IR and Jonathan Taylor in only his...

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