Week 10 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 11/12/20 Plenty of NFL betting action to get in on for Week 10 after a 2-1 record in the article. Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!   Texans Opponent CLEHOU +3It’s tough taking teams who have been, well pretty bad this season. That’s definitely the case with the Texans who fired their head coach/GM midseason and sport a 2-6 record with the only two wins over the lowly Jaguars. That is far from a great resume though it’s worth noting they had a brutal stretch to start the season against the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, and (to some extent) the Vikings.By opposing record, the Texans have the 8th most difficult schedule this season. It’s for sure been a rough go of it. But they remain an above-average DVOA offense and still have Deshaun Watson under center. This is worth something. The defense ranks poorly, but they’ve had the second-hardest schedule in terms of the offensive opponent which does help explain some of that. Meanwhile, the Browns' 5-3 record is a lot of smoke and mirrors. They have a -31 point differential on the season despite the 20th most difficult schedule on the season. Both the offense (17th in DVOA) and defense (19th) are below average this season. Records aside these two teams aren’t all that different with the Houston passing offense making up for the lack of effort on the defensive end. I’m a little concerned with the Houston motivation her considering the record has gone off the rails, but by the numbers, I see this as more of a pick’em. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Opponent CARTB -5.5 It was a rough scene for the Buccaneers in Week 9 with them losing control of the game early against the Saints and ultimately getting dumpstered 38-3. It’s hard to know what to make of that game and whether it’s just a blip on the radar for a team that was 6-2 coming in. It’s not excusable, but one game doesn’t a season make. They struggled to get going on the ground and really couldn’t do anything on offense. But despite that performance, this Bucs team still ranks first overall in DVOA defense on the season and are well above average on offense. This is still a very good team that had a very bad week. Meanwhile, Carolina has sported one of the league’s worst defenses this season, ranking 26th while...

Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 9 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Running Back The Chalk - David Johnson, Justin Jackson The Pivot Antonio Gibson FD 6200 DK 5800 Opponent NYG Proj Points FD - 15.03 DK - 16.73 Both Johnson and Jackson have favorable matchups this week and have been getting a ton of buzz. What stands out right away is that Antonio Gibson is projected slightly higher than both in our system yet it appears he could be much lower owned, especially considering he was held in check against the Giants in Week 6. The good news is that he is coming off a huge week in which he carried the ball 20 times for 128 yards and a touchdown. He isn't overly involved in teh passing game but does have five targets in three of his last four games and has now tallied double-digit DK points in five of his last six, topping 20 points twice. The combination of a projected Top 5-10 performance and projected low ownership outside the Top 10 has him as one of my favorite GPP pivots at the running back position. QB/WR Stack The Chalk - Justin Herbert/Keenan Allen(LAC), Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs(BUF), Russell Wilson/Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf(SEA) The Pivot Kyler Murray FD 8600 DK 7800 Opponent MIA Proj Points FD - 23.81 DK - 24.58 DeAndre Hopkins FD 8800 DK 8200 Opponent MIA Proj Points FD - 17.98 DK - 22.05 All three of the chalky stacks I listed above are great options in their own right but I also love the pivot to Murray/Hopkins who are both projected to be under 10% owned in GPP formats. That is great news as they are at or near the top of our projections on both sites. Kyler comes in having put up at least 24 DK/23 FD points in every game with a ceiling of 41 DK/38 FD points. For Hopkins, he has fit in nicely in Arizona and is one of just four players averaging double-digit targets per game and he has made the most of those targets leading the league with 704 receiving...

Week 9 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 11/5/20 Plenty of NFL betting action to get in on for Week 9. Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!   Titans Opponent CHI Titan -3.5 I know the last two weeks have been rough for the Titans with losses to the Steelers and the, ugh Bengals in Week 8. But let’s look a little closer. The Steelers’ loss came down to a missed Gostkowski field goal at the end of regulation. And the Bengals’ game, played in rough weather conditions saw the Titans intercepted in the end zone on their first drive and another missed FG on their second drive. That game should have been much closer. The Titans have the 4th-ranked offense on the season and are actually the second-best passing attack overall this season. That stands in stark contrast to the Bears who rank 27th on that side of the ball. Deciding who to roll between Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky is part of the reason they are struggling and there isn’t a whole lot of hope of getting better. And sure, on the defensive side of the ball, the Bears have been excellent this season, ranking 6th in DVOA overall and 5th against the pass. But they are worse against the run and its stands to reason the Titans lean on Derrick Henry in this matchup. Plus, the Bears’ defense has slipped over the last couple of weeks as the offense continues struggling to muster any firepower. The Titans take care of business in this game. Atlanta Falcons Opponent DEN Proj Points Falcons -3.5 The Falcons had been losing in increasingly fantastic fashion over a stretch this season. It was really something how they’d pulled out new and creative ways to take the “L”. But things have (sort of) begun turning around in the last few weeks. They have wins over the Vikings and Panthers with a Todd Gurley accidental TD / loss to Detroit jammed in there. That being said, this team is almost definitely better than their 2-6 record suggests and they are 2-1 under Raheem Morris. Where this comes down to, in some part, is the Falcons are a funnel defense, insanely bad against the pass but actually 8th overall against the run. And Denver would much prefer to run considering they are about league average on the ground and near the bottom of the league through the air. The come-from-behind...

Week 8 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 10/27/20 Plenty of early NFL betting action to get in on before lines more before Week 8. Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!   Los Angeles Chargers Opponent DENChargers -3 The Chargers didn’t make it always look easy, but they did end up with a 10-point road win over the lowly Jaguars on Sunday. It was their first win since Week 1 and Justin Herbert’s first W since taking over behind center for Tyrod Taylor. The team’s offense has looked more than confident over the last three weeks with close losses to very good Buccaneers and Saints teams in Weeks 5 and 6 respectively. But don’t overlook the defense, while the losses point to a unit looking for an identity, the schedule has been on the tougher side. This defense ranks 12th in defensive DVOA on the season even though the record would seem to point a different direction. This week, they’ll get the Broncos in Denver which has historically been a tough place to travel. But like we said last week with the Chiefs, this Broncos teams’ deficiencies more than offset any downgrade teams get going into the Mile High air of Denver. They got destroyed by the Chiefs last week following two straight wins, but those were over the Jets and the increasingly suspect looking New England Patriots. While the defense has looked competent at times, last week notwithstanding, the offense has been horrific no matter who’s been under center. Sure, it’s been a shaky ride with Lock out of the lineup for some games and the running back situation is hit or miss because of injuries (and otherwise). But this is a team without a ton of hope for improvement on the offensive end. They rank 31st in offensive DVOA. Meanwhile, I still think there’s room for growth on the Chargers’ end as Herbert becomes increasingly more comfortable. Even heading out on the road, it’s hard to imagine the Denver offense getting much of anything going here.   Tampa Bay BuccaneersOpponent NYGBuccaneers -10.5 We are starting to get to the point of the season where the separation between the haves and have nots becomes increasingly glaring. Such is the case with the Bucs and the Giants. While 10.5 is a huge number to give on the road, it’s worth noting that this season road teams are slightly outscoring home teams so the advantage of...

Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 7 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not safe plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterback With a ton of players already ruled out and a bunch more questionable, there is going to be a lot of chalk this week but one position I like making some pivots to differentiate is teh quarterback position. The Chalk(not in any projected order of own%) - Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, Matt Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Justin Herbert Let's take a look at a couple of projected low-owned options with big upside. Patrick Mahomes FD 9000 DK 7400 Opponent DEN Proj Points FD - 22.91 DK - 23.45 Doug talked about the Chiefs in his Top Bets Article and I am going to parlay that in DFS as I absolutely love Mahomes in GPP this week. I listed six quarterbacks above who are all projected to be higher owned this week and the crazy part is Mahomes is only the third-highest priced on DraftKings(highest priced QB on FanDuel). I think a lot of people will go back to Clyde Edwards-Helaire after a breakout game and that makes sense but even with that huge game Mahomes still came just shy of 3x on DraftKings last week. There is snow and low temps in the forecast and likely scares people away but I am not concerned at all as Mahomes faced the Broncos team in the snow last December and put up 340 yards and two touchdowns. It really doesn't feel too risky banking on a former MVP and reigning Super Bowl MVP and I love the upside and especially the possible sub 5% ownership. Stack with - Travis Kelce, Tyreke Hill  Run it back with -  Gardner Minshew II FD 7200 DK 5900 Opponent LAC Proj Points FD - 19.07 DK - 19.7 We can get even more leverage in the mid-tier as Stafford and Herbert should be the overwhelming chalk in this range. While Mahomes gives us a feeling of "safety" when we roster him, the same cannot be said for Minshew...