Passing Attacks to Target for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 1 on FanDuel and DraftKings Week 1 is breathing down our necks, but we are going to have you all set with plenty of time to spare before that first kickoff on Sunday. We've given an early look at some way-too-early values and optimal lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings. There was also a look at rushing attacks and running backs to target based at Vegas Spreads and volume. Now, let's take a look at some of the top passing attacks who stand out as strong plays for week one. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs.  San Francisco 49ers Jameis Winston FD 7500 DK 6600 Opponent SF Proj Points FD - 19.81 DK - 20.49 Mike Evans FD 7900 DK 7900 Opponent SF Proj Points FD - 15.16 DK - 17.59 Chris Godwin FD 6900 DK 6200 Opponent SF Proj Points FD - 12.24 DK - 14.45 The Buccaneers posted a disappointing 5-11 record in 2018 but from a fantasy perspective, they were nearly an every-week target in the passing game. With one of the worst defenses in the league allowing 29 points per game (31st overall), they trailed so many games, forcing them to throw a ton (4th most attempts) and ended up leading the league with an average of 320.3 passing yards per game. Their defensive outlook is not a whole a lot better in 2019 so fire up the Bucs early and often. Their Week 1 matchup against the 49ers has the third-highest total (49) on the board. It starts at the quarterback position with Jameis Winston who is coming off an inconsistent season overall but finished strong (fantasy-wise) with back to back 300+ yards games. In fact, since taking over as starter again in Week 11, he had three 300+ yard games, four multi-TD games, and only three interceptions in the final six games (did not play week 17).  From Week 11 on, Jameis was QB5 in DraftKings points, and was an elite fantasy option. With a Bucs run game led by Peyton Barber, I am expecting a ton of attempts and Winston loves to chuck it deep (annually Top 10 in yards per attempt) adding to his upside. Despite finishing 13th in targets per game(8.7), Mike Evans ended up third behind only Julio and Hopkins with an average of 95.3 receiving yards per game and also posted a career-high 62.3% catch rate(53% average going into 2018 season). He makes contested catches...

The DFS NFL Podcast is Back! Week 1 FanDuel and DraftKings Prices, Player Movement and more 8/23/19 They start with a high level look at some of the big names that find themselves in new situations to start the season and how bullish or bearish to be on these guys heading into the first week of the season. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! The DFSR NFL Podcast is back! It’s been a long offseason with plenty of player movement, news, speculation and much more. And the guys are excited to be back talking footballs and preparing for Week 1 on FanDuel and DraftKings. They discuss Le’Veon Bell’s move to New York and the big contract with the Jets. Is he ready to see the same kind of usage he totaled in 2017 with the Steelers? If so then he might be one of the very best values on DraftKings to start the season. There’s also discussion about what the move to Cleveland will look like for Odell Beckham Jr. and if he is poised to be maybe just the best overall WR in football this season. They also discuss the Cardinals, Bucs and more as the preparation for Week 1 DFS lineups starts to gear up. Subscribe to this podcast on...

Rushing Attacks to Target in Daily Fantasy NFL Week 1 for FanDuel and DraftKings We already covered some early looks at optimal NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings when both sites released prices. Now let's start drilling down a little further with some rushing attacks in EV+ spots for Week 1. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! A general rule of thumb in NFL DFS cash games is to begin targeting running backs and running attacks that are in advantageous situations. This is an oversimplification of course but there are some basic metrics we can look at ahead of time to determine whether a running back is in a "good spot." Vegas lines continue to tell us quite a lot about expectation leading into a game. The following two graphs show the Vegas spread a team entered a game with and where the average rushing attempts and yards landed. See that steady downward trajectory as the Vegas line became less favorable for a team? As a quick and dirty rule, we want to target running backs on the left side, those who are favored, preferably at home. It makes sense; teams who come in as heavy favorites are typically better, get a lead early and can run the game out late. Yes, there are diminishing returns for RB1s as the lead extends too far. At some point, teams will start giving their back-ups reps. But for the most part, we want our running backs to be on the favored team. Understanding all of this, there are some key spots that stand out for Week 1. Ravens -4.5 at Dolphins Lamar Jackson FD 7400 DK 6000 Opponent MIA Proj Points FD - 18.64 DK - 19.28 Mark Ingram FD 6600 DK 5100 Opponent MIA Proj Points FD - 11.69 DK - 12.69 From Week 11 on, when he took over the starting quarterback role for the Ravens, Lamar Jackson was 7th overall (that’s the entire NFL) in total rushing yards (556) from scrimmage and sixth in total carries (119). The Ravens’ running back Gus Edwards? He was fourth in both yards (654) and carries (122). The Ravens had a plan to keep it on the ground and it worked. They won six of their final seven games on their way to the playoffs. Rest assured they’ll take a similar approach this season. They enter the season as -4 home favorites against a Dolphins’ team gashed by the rush in 2018. Miami allowed the second-most total rushing yards and were...

Five Too-Early DraftKings and FanDuel Week 1 DFS Plays - 8/13/18 Last week FanDuel and DraftKings released their prices for Week 1 about a month early. That gives us a long runway to start fiddling with lineups while we wait for the slog of the preseason to come to a merciful end. In the meantime, let’s take a look at some early optimal lineups and see where our system is possibly looking to start the season.  Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! I ran the top 50 lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings. The percentages next to each name are how often they appeared in those lineups.  DraftKings Top 2 Lineups FanDuel Top 2 Lineups Is the Browns’ Hype Train Enough to Play Baker? Baker Mayfield FD 7900 DK 6400 Opponent TENProj Points FD - 21.32 DK - 21.79The Browns come into the season with unbelievable amounts of hype, most of it deserving with the upgrades they made in the offseason. From Week 11 on last season, Baker Mayfield scored the seventh-most fantasy points in the league among quarterbacks and now has a top 5 (or higher?) wide receiver at his disposal in Odell Beckham Jr. The latter finally gets a quarterback with a real-life NFL arm and it stands to reason the Browns step on the gas early and often in Week 1 with their new toys. We tend to like running quarterbacks a bit more for cash games. Mayfield *only* ran for 131 yards in 2018 though did at least show the ability to get out of the pocket when necessary. The Browns have the fifth-highest implied total on the main slate (25.5) and Baker sure seems like a safe option to open the season. Expensive Volume RBs on Bad Teams As of this printing, Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon are still holding out/demanding trades, putting their respective availability for Week 1 in serious doubt. If either (or both) sit there’s almost assuredly going to be punt running back plays to slot in. That’s why this is the “way too early” edition of the picks. Saquon Barkley FD 9200 DK 9000 Opponent DALProj Points FD - 20.38 DK - 23.05Barkley was second in the league behind Ezekiel Elliott in total running back usage (rushing attempts + receiving targets) with 382 looks in 2018. This was 11% more than the next closest running back, Christian McCaffrey, who had 343. The Giants were borderline negligent with Barkley’s usage considering how bad the team was and there’s no reason to...

NFL Podcast - Special Episode Super Bowl Betting Angles, Prop Bets and More 2/1/19 Listen to "NFL Podcast - Betting Angles, Prop Bets and More for the Big Game 2/1/19" on Spreaker. The DFSR crew of Doug Norrie, Chris Durell and James Davis take to the last NFL podcast of the year breaking down the betting angles for the Super Bowl between the Patriots and the Rams. They look at game odds, pick winners and talk about the overall game trends. The guys look at some of the MVP odds to see if there’s any value outside of the quarterbacks. There’s a lot of discussion about individual player props and how game flow will matter with certain narratives. And finally, they roll through some novelty bets you can get in on the game. Subscribe to this podcast on...