Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 1 – 9/5/19
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 1 - 9/5/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterbacks Lamar Jackson FD 7400 DK 6000 Opponent MIA Proj Points FD - 20.86 DK - 21.14 We're starting the season with Lamar Jackson under center? It's looking that way. After Jackson took over in week 11, he ran for 536 yards in 7 games. If you extrapolate that rate over 16 games, he would have had 1,225 yards, which would have been good for 4th best in the entire NFL. It would have been 26 yards fewer than Todd Gurley, who is more expensive than Jackson going into this week. Oh, and Jackson also passes the ball. It's reasonable to suggest that we'll see some regression from Jackson in the running game this season, simply because we have never seen a quarterback run so prolifically without getting injured. That being said, isn't it also reasonable to assume that he'll probably improve somewhat in the passing game? Any of that would just be the icing on the cake, here. The Ravens are in a fantastic spot against the Dolphins, who allowed the second most rushing yards per game last season and have already mailed in the season. I like Jackson in just about every format this week. Carson Wentz FD 7600 DK 5700 Opponent WAS Proj Points FD - 19.63 DK - 20.15 If you don't trust Jackson to continue his breakneck (perhaps literally) rushing pace, Wentz is a very interesting QB to consider. While it's true that Wentz is running a lot less than it looked like he would early in his career, he's quietly a much bigger force in the passing game than he gets credit for. While his end of year stats aren't phenomenal, is rate stats are excellent. His 69.6% completion rate ranked 3rd best in the league, and his 279.6 yards per game was sixth best among returning starters. He's got a solid core of receivers that's been bolstered by the arrival of DeSean Jackson, who provides a deep threat that the Eagles haven't really had in Wentz's time there. The running game should be improved with Howard and Sanders, both of whom can catch balls out of the backfield as well. Wentz threw for 306 yards while completing 27 of his 39 passes against the Skins last year, and again, his offense should be better this season. I like Wentz as a breakout candidate, and he his price could rise sharply if...
DFS NFL Podcast – Week 1 Cash Game Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings 9/4/19
DFS NFL Podcast - Week 1 Cash Game Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings 9/4/19 The Daily Fantasy Sports Rankings crew of James Davis and Doug Norrie take to the podcast discuss Week 1 Cash Game plays for FanDuel and DraftKings. It’s finally here! Week 1 main slate is around the corner and the guys take to the podcast to discuss cash game strategies, what to prioritize in Week 1 and how to go about creating *safe* DFS lineups. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! The DFSR NFL Podcast is back! It’s been a long offseason with plenty of player movement, news, speculation and much more. And the guys are excited to be back talking footballs and preparing for Week 1 on FanDuel and DraftKings. They take a slightly different approach to Week 1 on the podcast. Typically, they’ve written the cash game article and are breaking down their picks. This week, it’s in reverse with the guys looking at a group of players and deciding essentially where they’ll land for the write ups. The biggest issues boil down to a seeming treasure trove of value at Running Back with Wide Receiver looking a little thinner from a value perspective. That leaves some questions about where to pay up. At quarterback they discuss the safety in a guy like Lamar Jackson but also look at Carson Wentz and some other QBs in that middle tier price range. At running back they look at a whole host of plays and try to narrow the field. And finally, wide receiver proves to be the trickiest as of this taping with some elite WR1 guys in shadow coverage matchups and some other values maybe being a little too speculative for Week 1. Subscribe to this podcast on...
NFL Consistency – A look back at 2018’s Wide Receivers
NFL Consistency - A look back at 2018's Wide Receivers - 9/2/19 We’ve already taken a look at the differences in consistency around the quarterback position from 2018 and how certain QBs stack up going into this season. We’ve also rolled through some Week 1 running games to use in Week 1 for FanDuel and DraftKings plus some air attacks to look at in the passing game for DFS. Want to see some optimal lineups for NFL Week 1? Grab DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Also, tune into our NFL podcast, broadcasting twice a week during the season. Episode 2 from this season is below. Now let’s glance at the top wide receivers from last season and how they stacked up against each other over the course of the season from a consistency and upside perspective. And like we said with quarterbacks, we’ll do this by comparing the DraftKings coefficient of variation (CV - standard deviation / average points) of each player’s performance over the course of the year. This will allow us to compare players at each position to their peers. The lower the CV, the more consistent the player was over the course of the year. The average DraftKings points, kind of speaks for itself. Takeaways Davante Adams FD 8700 DK 7700 Opponent CHI Proj Points FD - 15 DK - 18.07 Considering the offense was stale and Aaron Rodgers did play banged up last season, Davante Adams was a pillar of consistency over the course of the sixteen weeks. He was obviously a monster and it helped that he caught at least one touchdown in 12 of his 16 games games. His lowest targeted games were seven twice and he had nine games of 11 or more targets. That being said, it’s tough to imagine with another year of Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling that Adams is the ultra-target machine we saw last season. Additionally, with a change of coaching out of the stale Mike McCarthy offense and into Matt LaFleur’s style we could see the ball spread more. I very much doubt we see this level of consistency from Adams again though he’s clearly WR1 in this offense. Juju Smith-Schuster FD 8100 DK 7500 Opponent NE Proj Points FD - 15.36 DK - 18.56 The Steelers and Vikings both sustained two top 15 receivers in Antonio Brown/Juju Smith-Schuster and Adam Thielen/Stefon Diggs respectively. The latter obviously come back as a tandem but now Juju is thrust into Pittsburgh's WR1 role. It’s going to be tough making strides in...
NFL Consistency – A look back at 2018’s Quarterbacks
NFL Consistency - A look back at 2018's Quarterbacks Leading into the season, we’ve been looking at putting together something of a primer for Week 1. We started with an early look at Week 1 pricing with early FanDuel and DraftKings optimal lineups. Then it was on to rushing attacks and runnings backs as well as passing games to target heading into the first week of the season. Over the next few articles we’ll look at the consistency or volatility around certain players at each position. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! We’ll do this by comparing the DraftKings coefficient of variation (CV - standard deviation / average points) of each player’s performance over the course of the year. This will allow us to compare players at each position to their peers. The lower the CV, the more consistent the player was over the course of the year. The average DraftKings points, kind of speaks for itself. For quarterbacks, I took the top 15 average weekly scorers who started eight or more games in 2017. Check out the graph below. Takeaways Models of Consistency Patrick Mahomes FD 8700 DK 7200 Opponent JAX Proj Points FD - 21.14 DK - 22.02 Um, what? Mahomes is living so far to the right of this graph that the formatting literally cut his name off. Sure, I could have fixed it, but I appreciated the metaphor here. He was so much better than every other quarterback that they couldn’t even see fully him. It’s not news that he had a historic season, dwarfing the rest of the competition by an epic landslide. But he was also about as consistent as it comes on a week-to-week basis. Only Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson had lower CVs and neither played full seasons. It stands to reason each of their numbers would have only trended up if given more run. I don’t believe Mahomes’s TD pace is replicable, but I thought the same thing at the beginning of last season as well and was promptly proven wrong. Lamar Jackson FD 7400 DK 6000 Opponent MIA Proj Points FD - 19.48 DK - 20.15 Speaking of Lamar Jackson,I wrote about Lamar Jackson and his potential as a Week 1 play already so go back and check that out for a rehash on how awesome his running statistics were last season. It remains to be seen if he can keep that going for an entire season as defenses adjust to the attack. But the rushing attempts and...
Prepping For Week 1 – Zeke News, Change of scenery guys and a rant on Andrew Luck – 8/30/19
Prepping For Week 1 - Zeke News, Change of scenery guys and a rant on Andrew Luck - 8/30/19 The DFSR NFL crew of Doug Norrie and James Davis is back for their second episode of the season, getting you prepped and ready for Week 1 on DraftKings and FanDuel. The season is now right around the corner and the guys are still looking at some of the news that's relevant for the DFS landscape. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! The DFSR NFL Podcast is back! It’s been a long offseason with plenty of player movement, news, speculation and much more. And the guys are excited to be back talking footballs and preparing for Week 1 on FanDuel and DraftKings. They start with the obvious and that's the heightening speculation that Ezekiel Elliott will miss Week 1 of the season. That would put Tony Pollard firmly in the driver seat of the Dallas backfield and likely make him the most highly-owned player on the slate considering his price point. There's also discussion of whether one could even trust Zeke in Week 1 after sitting out this long were he to come back. After that, they are looking at change-of-scenery/ coming back from injury guys and how that could look for their own stat lines plus those around them. They talk about Jimmy Garoppolo and the receivers in San Fran, Ryan Fitzpatrick looking at the starting nod for the Dolphins and Nick Foles and Dede Westbrook in Jacksonville. And finally, they finish things off with a long rant about the Andrew Luck retirement, his presser, crappy fans, bad takes and the right to live your life as you choose. It's a packed NFL podcast for DraftKings, FanDuel and life! Subscribe to this podcast on...