Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 11 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not safe plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterback The Chalk - Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Ben Roethlisberger The Pivot Aaron Rodgers FD 9000 DK 7000 Opponent IND Proj Points FD - 17.6 DK - 18.01 I am going to start at the quarterback position this week as I feel there is some terrific leverage here. First of all, I see all three chalk quarterbacks listed above being popular this week, especially Herbert in an elite spot vs. the Jets. This should help push Rodgers ownership down which was already projected lower due to the matchup vs. the Colts who rank 2nd in passing yards per game allowed and 1st in fantasy points allowed to the QB position. I am not worried for multiple reasons starting with the fact the Colts have only played against one team(TEN #2) ranked inside the Top 15 in DVOA passing offense and only four teams ranked inside the Top 20. Three times they have given up 20+ DK points to a QB and they were Stafford(Week 8), Burrow(Week 6), Minshew(Week 1) and Aaron Rodgers is *cough cough* a much better quarterback than all three of those(very tough to get that out being a Vikings fan). For Rodgers, outside of the Tampa game, he has been terrific this season tallying 19+ DK points in every game, scoring 25+ six times, and 29+ four times. He is gifted an elite wideout in Davante Adams and an elite running back in Aaron Jones who is also a top pass-catching back. Finally, I found this very interesting from Zach Kruse on Twitter and it aligns as GB is ranked #3 in pass protection while the Colts pass rush is ranked 15th this season. #Packers QB Aaron Rodgers when kept clean in the pocket in 2020, per @PFF: – 83.7 adjusted completion percentage (5th) – 25 touchdown passes (1st) – 130.0 passer rating (1st) Kept clean on 77.2% of dropbacks (2nd) — Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) November 20, 2020 I am absolutely...

Week 11 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 11/18/20 After another strong Week 10, going 2-0-1 (HOU miracle push) and 4-1-1 over the last two weeks, we have Week 11 lining up for some solid NFL betting value. Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!   Tennessee TitansOpponent BALTitans +6.5 Titans +240 .5 units This is an interesting game between two 6-3 teams who’ve reached their respective records in decidedly different ways. For starters, the Ravens haven’t had anything close to the offensive punch we saw in 2019, ranking 24th in DVOA on that side of the ball. Lamar Jackson appears to have regressed to his personal mean and the numbers have dropped dramatically off his MVP season. But on the defensive side of the ball, they’ve been stout once again, ranking 6th and even better against the rush at 3rd. That, for sure, could be a problem for Tennessee who wants to get things going with Derrick Henry early. On the other hand, we have the Titans who’ve made hay on offensive ranking 4th overall and, most importantly, 2nd in their passing attack. This is an important piece here against Baltimore who’ve been worse in their passing defense. All things considered, the Titans have a balanced offensive attack that can exploit holes in the Ravens’ front. Sure, the Titans’ defense has been an issue this season ranking 24th overall. But when it plays out through the numbers, these teams are closer to even than the 6.5 spread would indicate. Take the Titans’ points here in what should be a closer game.   Arizona CardinalsOpponent SEAARI +3.5 ARI +140 Here we have another road team getting points. Let’s take them. This season, home teams have a slight advantage when it comes to scoring, but it’s ever so slight. On the season, they are outscoring visitors by less than half a point per game. It’s not nothing, but it’s a far cry from what we’d seen in say 2018 when that number was more like 2.2. Arizona is coming off the Hail Mary win over the Bills in Week 10 and are now in a three-way tie at the top of the NFC West. They have the best point differential of the group (which includes Seattle) though arguably have played the easiest schedule. But this is still a team with a top-10 defensive DVOA and the 12th ranking on offense. The losses to the Panthers and Lions...

Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 10 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not always the safest plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! QB/WR Stack The Chalk - Jared Goff/Cooper Kupp, Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs, Deshaun Watson/Brandin Cooks, Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams The Pivot Russell Wilson FD 8900 DK 7700 Opponent LAR Proj Points FD - 22.71 DK - 23.16 DK Metcalf FD 8300 DK 7600 Opponent LAR Proj Points FD - 16.35 DK - 19.1 Looking at the buzz around the industry, Week 10 brings us a terrific opportunity to jump on board an elite QB/WR stack that could be the lowest owned we have seen them in some time. The projected low ownership comes from a combination of a below-average matchup for the Seahawks pass game and terrific matchups for the four chalk stacks I listed above. While the matchup is tough vs. Rams who rank 10th in DVOA against the pass and 2nd in fantasy points against both QB and WR, this game has the second-highest total(55.5) on the slate and is primed for a high-scoring game. The Seahawks also own the league's #1 passing offense(298.1 yards per game) Wilson and Metcalf have also been one of the most consistent and highest-upside stacks in the league as they have combined for 40+ DK points in seven of eight games and 50+ in six of eight. I also like the upside when looking at the advanced stats as Wilson is 5th among starting quarterbacks in air yards per attempt and Metcalf is 10th in aDOT(average depth of target) of players with 25+ targets on the season. The results from those opportunities have shown as well as Wilson leads the league in completions of 40+ yards(9) with Metcalf receiving four of those which also leads all wideouts. Both Wilson and Metcalf project to be lower than 10% owned in GPP formats and if that holds as we approach lineup lock, I will be loading up and in search of GPP glory! Running Back The Chalk - Aaron Jones, Mike Davis, Alvin Kamara, Chase Edmonds, James Conner...

Week 10 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 11/12/20 Plenty of NFL betting action to get in on for Week 10 after a 2-1 record in the article. Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!   Texans Opponent CLEHOU +3It’s tough taking teams who have been, well pretty bad this season. That’s definitely the case with the Texans who fired their head coach/GM midseason and sport a 2-6 record with the only two wins over the lowly Jaguars. That is far from a great resume though it’s worth noting they had a brutal stretch to start the season against the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, and (to some extent) the Vikings.By opposing record, the Texans have the 8th most difficult schedule this season. It’s for sure been a rough go of it. But they remain an above-average DVOA offense and still have Deshaun Watson under center. This is worth something. The defense ranks poorly, but they’ve had the second-hardest schedule in terms of the offensive opponent which does help explain some of that. Meanwhile, the Browns' 5-3 record is a lot of smoke and mirrors. They have a -31 point differential on the season despite the 20th most difficult schedule on the season. Both the offense (17th in DVOA) and defense (19th) are below average this season. Records aside these two teams aren’t all that different with the Houston passing offense making up for the lack of effort on the defensive end. I’m a little concerned with the Houston motivation her considering the record has gone off the rails, but by the numbers, I see this as more of a pick’em. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Opponent CARTB -5.5 It was a rough scene for the Buccaneers in Week 9 with them losing control of the game early against the Saints and ultimately getting dumpstered 38-3. It’s hard to know what to make of that game and whether it’s just a blip on the radar for a team that was 6-2 coming in. It’s not excusable, but one game doesn’t a season make. They struggled to get going on the ground and really couldn’t do anything on offense. But despite that performance, this Bucs team still ranks first overall in DVOA defense on the season and are well above average on offense. This is still a very good team that had a very bad week. Meanwhile, Carolina has sported one of the league’s worst defenses this season, ranking 26th while...

Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 9 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Running Back The Chalk - David Johnson, Justin Jackson The Pivot Antonio Gibson FD 6200 DK 5800 Opponent NYG Proj Points FD - 15.03 DK - 16.73 Both Johnson and Jackson have favorable matchups this week and have been getting a ton of buzz. What stands out right away is that Antonio Gibson is projected slightly higher than both in our system yet it appears he could be much lower owned, especially considering he was held in check against the Giants in Week 6. The good news is that he is coming off a huge week in which he carried the ball 20 times for 128 yards and a touchdown. He isn't overly involved in teh passing game but does have five targets in three of his last four games and has now tallied double-digit DK points in five of his last six, topping 20 points twice. The combination of a projected Top 5-10 performance and projected low ownership outside the Top 10 has him as one of my favorite GPP pivots at the running back position. QB/WR Stack The Chalk - Justin Herbert/Keenan Allen(LAC), Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs(BUF), Russell Wilson/Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf(SEA) The Pivot Kyler Murray FD 8600 DK 7800 Opponent MIA Proj Points FD - 23.81 DK - 24.58 DeAndre Hopkins FD 8800 DK 8200 Opponent MIA Proj Points FD - 17.98 DK - 22.05 All three of the chalky stacks I listed above are great options in their own right but I also love the pivot to Murray/Hopkins who are both projected to be under 10% owned in GPP formats. That is great news as they are at or near the top of our projections on both sites. Kyler comes in having put up at least 24 DK/23 FD points in every game with a ceiling of 41 DK/38 FD points. For Hopkins, he has fit in nicely in Arizona and is one of just four players averaging double-digit targets per game and he has made the most of those targets leading the league with 704 receiving...