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Daily Fantasy Football Game by Game Breakdowns Sunday’s FanDuel and DraftKings Slates

Posted by on Jan 6, 2021 in featured, Injuries, News |

Daily Fantasy Football Game by Game Breakdowns Sunday's FanDuel and DraftKings Slates The NFL managed to make it through all 256 games of the regular season, and now we get to sit and pray that Covid doesn't ruin the playoffs. With the Saints apparently narrowly avoiding losing their running backs to the plague, it looks like we might get a normal week of football after all. Let's go game by game and see where we can find a little DFS value. Plus, check out our picks for Saturday's Divisional Round Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings. Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Tennessee Titans (3.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) Things kick off on Sunday with a rematch of one of the best games of the regular season, a game that saw the Titans win on a 29-yard touchdown run from Derrick Henry in overtime. Blessedly, this was a week where both teams were mostly healthy, and there's a lot we can learn from how each team game-planned against the other. Let's take a look at the DFS relevant plays on both sides. Tennessee Titans Derrick Henry FD 10200 DK 9200 Opponent BAL Proj Points FD - 22.44 DK - 23.48 One thing that was clear when these two teams met in November was that the Titans were prepared to live and die with Derrick Henry. In spite of falling behind by 11 points in the second quarter, Henry touched the ball 30 times for 132 yards. Baltimore was tough against the run this season, but the playoffs are a time where we are going to have to recalibrate our expectations about match-ups. We're looking at short slates with good teams, and you just aren't going to get to run Henry against teams like the Texans. Now price might wind up making Henry miss the cut, but don't fret this spot based on match-up or opportunity. Ryan Tannehill FD 8200 DK 6600 Opponent BAL Proj Points FD - 18.77 DK - 19.45 Our system recommends Lamar Jackson as the top overall cash game play on both sites, but Tannehill is the next man up. While Jackson is obviously the superior DFS QB, Tannehill brings an interesting skill set to the table in his own right. The Titans have been using Tannehill's rushing ability in the red zone far more often toward the end of the season, with RT going for 5 rushing touchdowns in the Titans'...

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Daily Fantasy Football Saturday Cash Game Breakdown for FanDuel and DraftKings Slates

Posted by on Jan 5, 2021 in featured, News, Weekly Fantasy Football Picks |

Daily Fantasy Football Saturday Cash Game Breakdown for FanDuel and DraftKings Slates We’ve got a Saturday of playoff football with plenty of value to start the weekend on FanDuel and DraftKings. Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterback Josh Allen FD 9000 DK 7500 Opponent IND Proj Points FD - 21.33 DK - 22.1 Josh Allen could be a tough fade on this Saturday slate considering just how much of the team’s fantasy production comes through his arm and his legs. Allen finished the season as QB1 in terms of overall raw fantasy points and second only to Patrick Mahomes in per-game scoring at the position because the latter sat Week 17. While the Colts’ defense has been more than sound this season, ranking 7th in defensive DVOA, this game has easily the highest over/under of the day (53) with the Bills as -7 favorites owning the best-implied total (29.5). Allen’s ability to sling it (37 passing TDs) and run (421 yards and eight TDs on the ground) make him the ideal cash game quarterback. John Wolford FD 6200 DK 4900 Opponent SEA Proj Points FD - 16.23 DK - 17.05 If you want a cheaper option on this slate Wolford is actually a fine option. In his first NFL snaps, in a must-win Week 17 game against the Cardinals the rookie quarterback threw for 231 yards on a 57% completion percentage. That’s obviously merely *meh* but he also got out and scrambled for 56 yards on six carries. If he can do work with his legs then the floor is probably high enough at these price points. He’ll face a middle-tier defense in the Seahawks who allowed the most opponents plays per game (69.5) this season. It’s a pace-up matchup for Wolford who’s coming as the cheapest quarterback on the slate on DraftKings. Running Back Jonathan Taylor FD 8800 DK 7900 Opponent BUF Proj Points FD - 16.94 DK - 18.03 Taylor comes into the game as a prohibitive underdog to the Bills, -7 on the road. That isn’t typically where we want to be with running backs, especially if there are concerns about lack of opportunity when playing from behind. Since Week 11, Taylor ranks third in running back fantasy points per game behind only Derrick Henry and David Montgomery. In that time he averaged 18 touches (16 rushes, two targets) per game and posted well over 100 yards per game in...

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Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings – Week 17

Posted by on Jan 2, 2021 in featured, Football Strategy |

Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 17 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not safe plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Running Back The Chalk - David Montgomery, Jonathan Taylor The Pivot Aaron Jones FD 8000 DK 7100 Opponent CHI Proj Points FD - 15.11 DK - 16.61 There is absolutely no safety here with Jones in Week 17 as not only is Williams coming back but AJ Dillon is coming off a breakout rookie performance, albeit in a blowout. With the Packers in a "win and take division title" scenario and Aaron Rodgers/Devante Adams on a complete rampage of the league, Jones is going to come in very low owned especially with chalk Montgomery on the other side and Jonathan Taylor for the Colts. There is a ton of risk here but he is more than capable of 100+ yards multiple touchdowns in this offense and is a terrific leverage play off the passing game in which we don't need a ton of exposure to take advantage. Quarterback The Chalk - Lamar Jackson, Ryan Tannehill, Aaron Rodgers The Pivot Josh Allen FD 8200 DK 7600 Opponent MIA Proj Points FD - 19.06 DK - 19.82 I am all aboard the risk train in GPP this week and this pick highlights that. The Bills are in great shape to capture the #2 seed but would lose it with a loss and Steelers win so I see them playing the starters here and that is great news as they are likely very low owned. Allen is having an MVP-like season and comes into this one red-hot throwing for 320+ yards in three of his last four games with a total of 14 touchdowns(12 passing, 2 rushing). It helps he has one of the best wideouts in the league in Stefon Diggs who I will be stacking him with this week. With Cole Beasley out, I will also be looking at value with Gabriel Davis and Dawson Know. The matchup is a tougher one as the Dolphins rank 5th in DVOA defense vs. the pass and 7th...

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Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings – Week 15

Posted by on Dec 19, 2020 in featured, Football Strategy |

Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 15 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not safe plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Wide Receiver The Chalk - DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Cooper Kupp The Pivot Justin Jefferson FD 7600 DK 7300 Opponent CHI Proj Points FD - 14.15 DK - 16.84 Adam Thielen FD 7500 DK 7100 Opponent CHI Proj Points FD - 12.74 DK - 15.38 In cash games and even in limited entry contests I will have lots of exposure to the chalk wideouts this week as they are all in terrific spots. For larger GPP's, however, I will be making some pivots to try and leverage some of my builds. This leads me to the Vikings duo who have been crushing value all year as Jefferson sits 7th in receiving yards and Thielen is 3rd overall in receiving touchdowns. This is pretty incredible considering the Vikings have one of the best running backs in the game in Dalvin Cook. Cook will be high-owned this week and for good reason and that is why I love pivoting to the passing game. While the Bears do rank 3rd in fantasy points per game to wideouts, they have given up some big games lately. Last week they shut down the Texans but they were without their Top 3 wideouts so let's overlook that performance for a second. Before that, they had allowed at least one wideout to reach 100+ yards or gave up multiple touchdowns to wideouts in four straight games. This includes the 19-13 win for the Vikings back in Week 10 in which Jefferson tallied 135 yards receiving and Thielen tallied 43 yards and two touchdowns. Most of my builds with these wideouts will be one or the other with a couple of stacks with them both and Kirk Cousins. For the lowest possible ownership, you will want to focus on Thielen who could very well be sub 5% owned this week. Running Back The Chalk - Derrick Henry, Cam Akers, Jonathan Taylor, Leonard Fournette The Pivot Miles Sanders FD 6800 DK 6900 Opponent...

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Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 15

Posted by on Dec 15, 2020 in featured, News, Weekly Fantasy Football Picks |

Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 15 Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterbacks Lamar Jackson FD 8200 DK 7500 Opponent JAXProj Points FD - 24.46 DK - 25.05 Though they are 8-5, the Ravens are still very much in a fight for their playoff lives over the home stretch of the season. Luckily, they get a dream matchup in Week 15 against the Jacksonville Jaguars who rank dead last in the league in defensive DVOA and are slightly worse against the pass than the run. Jackson has 50 or more rushing yards in each of the last seven weeks and 218 in just the last two weeks. In that span, he has five rushing touchdowns after only scoring one in the first five weeks. We’ve seen a return to the 2019 fantasy Lamar Jackson and he has the highest floor of any quarterback this week. It will cost you, but for cash games it hard to get much safer than Jackson against the Jags this week. Jalen Hurts FD 6900 DK 5900 Opponent ARIProj Points FD - 19.77 DK - 20.83 We wrote Hurts up as a cash game play in Week 14, especially on DraftKings where he was coming very cheap. It paid off. In his first game as a starter, taking over for Carson Wentz, Hurts led the Eagles to a stunning upset over the New Orleans Saints and their top-2 defense. Hurts wasn’t all that efficient through the air, completing only 57% of his passes (17-30) but he did throw a touchdown. Where he really put it up was on the ground, carrying the ball 18 times and piling on 108 yards. That should be the plan this week as well. The matchup against the Cardinals is more favorable than New Orleans, but this is still a top-10 defense. That being said, Hurts’s ability to run gives you a solid baseline and the DraftKings price is still sub-$7k. Taysom Hill FD 7500 DK 6000 Opponent KCProj Points FD - 22.89 DK - 23.65 We liked Hill for cash as well last week and things were looking real rough to start against the Eagles. Hill was as bad as humanly possible in the first half. But, while playing from behind in the second half he managed to dial things up and finished with 291 yards passing and two touchdowns. This week should be another chance to...

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