FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks – Saturday 9/5/20
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Saturday 9/5/20 Head on over a for your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NBA FanDuel and DraftKings optimizer, our MLB Optimizer and NHL Projections as well. Plus our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with NBA or NFL? Be sure to read our free NBA and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Celtics (1) vs. Raptors (-1) Well, this was a truly incredible game three. The Kemba assist. The OG shot, of course. And now instead of wondering if the series will be a sweep we have the Celtics who have to be sweating just a little bit. From a DFS perspective, our system likes this game a lot better than the other game for a couple of factors. First of all, these teams are playing tight games, and losing minutes to blowout likely goes out the window at this point. Second of all, both of these teams are consolidating minutes to an absurd degree, relying on their starters rather than their benches. The Raptors' bench played just 43 minutes in game three, and the Celtics' bench played just over 54 minutes. As a result, our system likes every single one of the Raptors' starters, and prioritizes game three hero OG Anunoby (FD $5800 DK $5600), who played nearly every minute of game three before hitting the game winner. It ranks Kyle Lowry (FD $9000 DK $7800) as the worst buy on FanDuel, but a very solid play on DraftKings. Both of the Toronto guards shot more than 20 times in game three, and have to be considered high floor options regardless. On the Celtics' side we see more of the same. The best play is a guy who is playing unexpectedly high minutes in Marcus Smart (FD $5500 DK $6500), whose FanDuel price in particular hasn't caught up with the minutes. With four guys who shot 15 times or more, things are spread out enough that you're not really forcing any given Celtic into your lineup, but instead just mixing and matching based on what priced player you need where. Clippers (-9) vs. Nuggets (+9) Now we head into a game two of a series where we learned precious little. We can't get a sense for where the minutes are headed here since both teams rested their starters on account of the blowout. So where do we begin? Unfortunately, we sort of begin where we started. Let's start with the Nuggets, who are by far the riskiest team to prioritize on today's...
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks – Thursday 9/4/20
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Thursday 9/4/20 Head on over a for your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NBA FanDuel and DraftKings optimizer, our MLB Optimizer and NHL Projections as well. Plus our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with NBA or NFL? Be sure to read our free NBA and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Bucks (-5) vs. Heat (+5) Things are getting a bit weird in Milwaukee with the regular season juggernaut Bucks now down 0-2 in the series to the Heat and maybe on their way to an early playoff exit. They’ll have a chance to get back into it on Thursday and one has to believe they go all-out in order to avoid the Heat going up 3-0 here. For the Bucks, it starts and stops with Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD $10600 DK $11500) who is averaging 23 points, 12 rebounds and six assists through the first two games. For him, these numbers aren’t overwhelming and the 36.5 minutes per game remains concerning. That being said, I think the plan was to play him even more in game two, but he got into some foul trouble. While Coach Bud has always bucked back at running the guys max minutes, he’s probably (we think?) pushed to the breaking point here. While Miami has speed bumped Giannis through the first two games, I think he’s still at the top of the cash game considerations (though it’s close with the Lakers’ guys) and if there was a moment to go full run, this is it. In terms of value, Eric Bledsoe (FD $5600 DK $5700) and George Hill (FD $4500 DK $4300) played 31 and 26 minutes respectively in game two. For their prices, I think they make two of the better point guard plays on Monday at a position we aren’t going to want to overpay. Jae Crowder (FD $5000 DK $5300) has played big minute in the first two games as the Heat try to offer a little more size and strength to combat Giannis. In game two he took 12 shots and dropped 16 points and six rebounds. That makes for 13 points and eight rebounds on average for the first two games. If Andre Iguodala were to sit then Crowder’s minutes would remain ultra-safe. I’m still a fan of Tyler Herro (FD $5400 DK $5200) even off the bench. He’s been closing for this team and that shouldn’t change going forward considering how well he’s played. he took the second-most shots on the...
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks – Thursday 9/3/20
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Thursday 9/3/20 Head on over a for your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NBA FanDuel and DraftKings optimizer, our MLB Optimizer and NHL Projections as well. Plus our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with NBA or NFL? Be sure to read our free NBA and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Celtics (1) vs. Raptors (-1) On to game three for the Celtics and Raptors after the Raps lost a heartbreaker in game two. Fred Vanvleet and Kyle Lowry literally can't shoot any worse, and watching Marcus Smart do his best Jason McElwain impersonation had to have been simply brutal. Vegas still has the Raptors as 1 point favorites here, so at the very least we can count on this one to be competitive enough that the starters from both sides play their minutes. Our system thinks the Raptors are largely in play as a squad, but it really is honing in on Pascal Siakam (FD $8200 DK $7900). Siakam played 43 minutes and contributed across the board in game two, going for 17/8/6 with four defensive stats to boot.OG Anunoby (FD $5300 DK $5100) ranks closely behind him, though, after seeing a huge minutes bump to 38 minutes in game two. He is an easy 5x points per dollar on lock at these prices. The guards are looking like reasonable values as well, with both Kyle Lowry (FD $7800 DK $7500) and Fred Vanvleet (FD $7700 DK $7700) running terribly from the field so far. I haven't loved VanVleet's looks so far, so if I had to leave one of these Raptors out it might be him. On the Celtics side of the ball, our system loves all five starters. We'll continue to ride Marcus Smart (FD $5700 DK $6300), who we've been running for the entire playoffs so far. He won't always be lights out from deep, but as we've seen in other games he can contribute across multiple categories. If I had to pick two other Celtics (and again, I'm fine with any of them), I'd just go with the high usage guys in Kemba Walker (FD $7600 DK $7700) and Jayson Tatum (FD $9200 DK $9200). Tatum getting to the line 14 times shows you well enough that this Raptors team just can't guard him, and I'm ready to double down on him once again. Look for Kemba to bounce back after an off night from the field. Clippers (-8.5) vs. Nuggets (+8.5) Round two begins for the...
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks – Wednesday 9/2/20
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday 9/2/20 Head on over a for your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NBA FanDuel and DraftKings optimizer, our MLB Optimizer and NHL Projections as well. Plus our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with NBA or NFL? Be sure to read our free NBA and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Heat (4.5) vs. Bucks (-4.5) The Bucks came into the playoffs with questions on how Giannis’s game and their overall scheme would lend itself to closing in close games. Game one did nothing to dispel any of those concerns. The Bucks struggled to find non-contested shots late in the game and ultimately lost to Miami. Going into game two, they face another tough one against a team that clearly came to play. The question on DraftKings will be Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD $11500 DK $11400) or James Harden, I don’t think you are fitting both. On FanDuel I think there will be a path to playing both big money superstars considering the softer pricing over there. Giannis played an uncharacteristic 37 minutes in game one though was “ineffective” by his standards with *only* 18 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists. He also turned the ball over six times. The Bucks will have to run him a lot again to make sure this is a series. I still think he’s a cash game play despite the first game’s results. Khris Middleton (FD $7500 DK $8100) picked up the scoring slack, taking a team-high 24 shots and finishing with 28 points. Some of his ticked up usage relied on Eric Bledsoe missing the first game. If the latter was back, I might not be as bullish on Middleton again, though I think the minutes will still be there. Speaking of Bledsoe, George Hill (FD $4400 DK $4300) got the start in his place though struggled to find much production in his 36 minutes. He got up only five total shots. That being said, if Bledsoe sat again, Hill strikes me as a near must-play at these prices on a two-game slate. On the Miami side, I think the temptation will be to play Jimmy Butler (FD $9000 DK $8300) in cash after his 40-point game one though I’d caution that at least on his FanDuel price. He’s a bit better value on DraftKings. His production was almost all through the scoring and I just am not sure the floor is high enough against a, still, very good defensive Milwaukee team. For Miami, in cash...
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks – Tuesday 9/1/20
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Tuesday 9/1/20 Head on over a for your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NBA FanDuel and DraftKings optimizer, our MLB Optimizer and NHL Projections as well. Plus our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with NBA or NFL? Be sure to read our free NBA and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Celtics (1.5) vs. Raptors (-1.5) Boston took it to Toronto in game one of this series, winning in pretty easy fashion 112-94 with starters losing minutes all around. I’m not sure we learned a ton from this game beyond Boston shooting 44% from three and Toronto 25%. From a value stand point, Daniel Theis (FD $5300 DK $5200) was excellent on his minutes, putting in 13 points and grabbing 15 rebounds. He’s unlikely to get to the line seven more times so I think the scoring is something of an outlier, but it’s clear they need his size on the court up against either Marc Gasol or Serge Ibaka. The Celtics did spread the shot wealth around among Jayson Tatum (18), Jaylen Brown (18), Kemba Walker (11) and Marcus Smart (10). I still think, in a close game that all four are value plays with maybe only Tatum being priced out a little in comparison. Jaylen Brown (FD $6300 DK $7300) had foul trouble last game but is still coming in at a fair price, especially on FanDuel. Meanwhile, Marcus Smart (FD $5700 DK $6000) was lights out from three (5-9) on his way to 21 points. He’s a candidate to take on a heavy minutes load going forward because of his defense in close games. I love him on both sites even sharing the court with other higher usage guys. It’s easy to get down on Toronto, but it was only one game. Fred Vanvleet (FD $7600 DK $7800) is still a mid-tier play and really struggled from the field (3-16) in game one. I’m not writing him off and Nick Nurse has shown that he can run 42-43 minutes in close games no problem. Marc Gasol (FD $4500 DK $4100) is a cheap DraftKings play and got out there for mid-20’s minutes in game one. That’s about all you need from him and it’s worth a reminder that cheap guys with steady minutes are near impossible to find these days on short playoff slates. Jazz (-1) vs. Nuggets (+1) Jamal Murray (FD $9400 DK $9700) and Donovan Mitchell (FD $8500 DK $9900) put on a show for the ages...