Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings – Week 15
Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 15 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not safe plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Wide Receiver The Chalk - DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Cooper Kupp The Pivot Justin Jefferson FD 7600 DK 7300 Opponent CHI Proj Points FD - 14.15 DK - 16.84 Adam Thielen FD 7500 DK 7100 Opponent CHI Proj Points FD - 12.74 DK - 15.38 In cash games and even in limited entry contests I will have lots of exposure to the chalk wideouts this week as they are all in terrific spots. For larger GPP's, however, I will be making some pivots to try and leverage some of my builds. This leads me to the Vikings duo who have been crushing value all year as Jefferson sits 7th in receiving yards and Thielen is 3rd overall in receiving touchdowns. This is pretty incredible considering the Vikings have one of the best running backs in the game in Dalvin Cook. Cook will be high-owned this week and for good reason and that is why I love pivoting to the passing game. While the Bears do rank 3rd in fantasy points per game to wideouts, they have given up some big games lately. Last week they shut down the Texans but they were without their Top 3 wideouts so let's overlook that performance for a second. Before that, they had allowed at least one wideout to reach 100+ yards or gave up multiple touchdowns to wideouts in four straight games. This includes the 19-13 win for the Vikings back in Week 10 in which Jefferson tallied 135 yards receiving and Thielen tallied 43 yards and two touchdowns. Most of my builds with these wideouts will be one or the other with a couple of stacks with them both and Kirk Cousins. For the lowest possible ownership, you will want to focus on Thielen who could very well be sub 5% owned this week. Running Back The Chalk - Derrick Henry, Cam Akers, Jonathan Taylor, Leonard Fournette The Pivot Miles Sanders FD 6800 DK 6900 Opponent...
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 15
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 15 Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterbacks Lamar Jackson FD 8200 DK 7500 Opponent JAXProj Points FD - 24.46 DK - 25.05 Though they are 8-5, the Ravens are still very much in a fight for their playoff lives over the home stretch of the season. Luckily, they get a dream matchup in Week 15 against the Jacksonville Jaguars who rank dead last in the league in defensive DVOA and are slightly worse against the pass than the run. Jackson has 50 or more rushing yards in each of the last seven weeks and 218 in just the last two weeks. In that span, he has five rushing touchdowns after only scoring one in the first five weeks. We’ve seen a return to the 2019 fantasy Lamar Jackson and he has the highest floor of any quarterback this week. It will cost you, but for cash games it hard to get much safer than Jackson against the Jags this week. Jalen Hurts FD 6900 DK 5900 Opponent ARIProj Points FD - 19.77 DK - 20.83 We wrote Hurts up as a cash game play in Week 14, especially on DraftKings where he was coming very cheap. It paid off. In his first game as a starter, taking over for Carson Wentz, Hurts led the Eagles to a stunning upset over the New Orleans Saints and their top-2 defense. Hurts wasn’t all that efficient through the air, completing only 57% of his passes (17-30) but he did throw a touchdown. Where he really put it up was on the ground, carrying the ball 18 times and piling on 108 yards. That should be the plan this week as well. The matchup against the Cardinals is more favorable than New Orleans, but this is still a top-10 defense. That being said, Hurts’s ability to run gives you a solid baseline and the DraftKings price is still sub-$7k. Taysom Hill FD 7500 DK 6000 Opponent KCProj Points FD - 22.89 DK - 23.65 We liked Hill for cash as well last week and things were looking real rough to start against the Eagles. Hill was as bad as humanly possible in the first half. But, while playing from behind in the second half he managed to dial things up and finished with 291 yards passing and two touchdowns. This week should be another chance to...
Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings – Week 14
Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 14 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not safe plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! QB/WR Stack The Chalk - Patrick Mahomes/Tyreek Hill, Justin Herbert/Keenan Allen, Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams The Pivot Kyler Murray FD 8100 DK 7200 Opponent NYG Proj Points FD - 21.88 DK - 22.63 DeAndre Hopkins FD 8200 DK 7600 Opponent NYG Proj Points FD - 16.25 DK - 19.94 Christian Kirk FD 5500 DK 4700 Opponent NYG Proj Points FD - 6.89 DK - 8.46 While I will likely have heavy exposure to the chalk stacks above as they are all in great spots, I love pivoting the Cardinals in bigger GPP's like the Milli Maker. Going off recency bias, you likely think I am crazy here but going off the beaten path can often create a very unique core that would allow you to solo take down a GPP. Kyler has struggled to get the yardage and production we were accustomed to seeing early in the season but is coming off a stretch of three games in which he faced the Rams and Patriots which are tough pass defenses and an improved Seahawks pass defense. That stretch of below-average performances have helped lower his price on both sites and we have seen him hit 6x value on DK at these prices a few times already. It helps he has one of the best wideouts in the game to throw to and despite Hopkins showing a ton of frustration, he still put up 19 points last week and like Murray, his price is down leading to big PTS/$ upside. If you want to go even lower owned with this stack, roll out Christian Kirk. He is more of a deep shot threat and doesn't see the target share to make you feel warm and fuzzy but is most likely 1-2% owned and with a high 13.0 aDOT, he only needs a couple catches to crush his value. Looking at the matchup, the Giants have been better as of late during their four-game winning streak but...
Week 14 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 12/10/20
Week 14 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 12/10/20 We are starting Week 14 off with some action on the Thursday night game between the Rams and the Patriots. Los Angeles RamsOpponent NERams -4.5 The Patriots are coming off a massive, 45-0 stomping of the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 13. And they have played better of late, winning four of their last five. But two of those wins were against a couple of the worst teams in the league, the Chargers and the Jets. They also somehow dropped one to the Texans. And of course, they still own a bottom-third defense. The Rams are an incredibly balanced team on the season. They rank 4th in offensive DVOA and 5th on defense. And the best part of their offensive game, running the ball, lines up well against the Patriots’ biggest deficiency: stopping the ground game. The Patriots rank 28th against the rush on the season. It stands to reason Sean McVay and company will grind down New England with the rush. All season, New England has tried to grind down teams with their own running game, trying to use Cam Newton’s legs while also leaning on guys like Damien Harris. And of late it’s worked having won four of their last five games. It hasn’t felt great (ever) betting against Bill Belichick, but let’s do it here. WIN New Orleans SaintsOpponent PHISaints -7 The Saints head into Philadelphia this week with at least one more game of Taysom Hill under center. In the last three weeks, Hill has gone 3-0 though admittedly it wasn’t the toughest run of competition. They beat the Falcons twice and the Denver practice squad once. That being said, it doesn’t get much harder this week against the Eagles and Jalen Hurts’ first start. On the Hill side, there hasn’t been much of a drop-off in the offensive efficiency for the team and though the offense looks different, they’ve still managed to put up points relatively speaking. Meanwhile, the Eagles have struggled this season (understatement) and are now moving to a rookie quarterback in Jalen Hurts. Though Hurts did put tip yards through the air in his Week 13 debut, he was incredibly inefficient going 5-12. The Eagles likely reduce some of their sack issues, but it’s hard to imagine the offense taking a big leap here. New Orleans has the second-best defense in the league and should take advantage of Hurts’s inexperience. Indianapolis Colts Opponent LVColts -3 Though the Colts and the Raiders are only separated in the standings by one game (Indy 8-5, LV 7-5) the seasons have been very different on paper. The Colts have outscored opponents by 55 points while...
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 14
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 14 Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterbacks Russell Wilson FD 9000 DK 7900 Opponent NYJProj Points FD - 24.27 DK - 24.76 After throwing for touchdowns on what seemed like every pass to start the season, Wilson has slowed down considerably over the last few games. In his last five, he has only six total touchdowns and five interceptions. The Seahawks are 2-3 in that stretch. But this is a bounce back opportunity against the Jets who’ve been destroyed through the air this year. They rank dead last against the pass and allow the second-most yards per pass attempt. They’ve allowed more than 25 DraftKings points to QBs in four of the last five weeks. This is a smash spot for Wilson who remains expensive but is still a cash game play this week. Taysom Hill FD 7700 DK 6600 Opponent PHIProj Points FD - 21.83 DK - 22.5 It looks like Drew Brees is still anoter week from returning meaning Taysom Hill will spend another game under center. Hill is QB6 in FanDuel over the last three weeks and that includes a game against Denver in which the Saints took their foot completely off the gas in the second half. In the last three weeks, he’s averaged 11 carries and 59 yards on the ground, scoring four touchdowns along the way. And he’s been efficient through the air when asked to put the ball up, completing 68% of his passes, finally getting his first throwing touchdown last week. The Eagles defense ranks 15th on the season, but are much worse against the pass at 24th in DVOA. This is still a fine time to grab Hill who has such a high floor because of the rushing ability. Jalen Hurts FD 6600 DK 5100 Opponent NOProj Points FD - 15.69 DK - 16.63 Let’s do this thing, shall we? Hurts will take over for Carson Wentz a week after it was speculated he’d take the reins for Philly. But after Wentz struggled once again, Hurts came in against the Packers and Doug Pederson waited only a day to name him the starter for Week 14. Hurts was inefficient, going 5-12 but did throw for 109 yards and a touchdown. He added, almost more importantly, 29 yards on the ground on five carries. It’s the rushing ability at this price point on DraftKings...