Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/24/16 Opening Round Note that this article’s format changed when the playoffs started. Additionally, there won’t be a separate updates article. Check back to this article throughout the day and review the discussion in the comments below for updated information. Now’s your chance to get DFSR Pro with NBA Optimal Lineups, Projections, Player Cards and Google Chrome extension that auto-populates your lineups into FanDuel. Or try a free trial of our base package with projections for every player. While the seasons overlap, you'll get access to our tools for MLB, NBA, and NHL! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with NBA? Be sure to read our free NBA Ebook on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. We've also launched a Stats and Research Page, which includes a lot of the individual statistics that we use to make our projections. It's free! Enjoy. San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies Analysis Brooms high! The most lopsided match-up of round one will almost assuredly come to a close here, and really, I am not too sad to see it go. The first round of the NBA playoffs has been incredibly tough to project from a daily fantasy perspective, and this series has been no exception. After two games where basically no players paid their price, a (relatively) close game 3 saw a handful of solid fantasy performances. With this being the 4th (and likely final) game of the series, we're projecting that Memphis will play their good guys (such as they are) as much as they can since there's nothing left to play for after this one. The Spurs? It's a little trickier. Let's get to it. Top Value Plays Jordan Farmar - FD 3500 DK 3300 Opponent - SAS FD Proj. Pts - 18.18 DK Proj. Pts - 19.1 Tony Allen - FD 4500 DK 3800 Opponent - SAS FD Proj. Pts - 24.76 DK Proj. Pts - 25.3 Memphis guard stack!! Woof. Farmar was kinda great in the last game, at least from a points per dollar perspective. If he's going to play 30+ minutes and handle the ball a decent amount, I maintain that he's a solid play here, and I can very likely see playing him (even in 50/50s and double-ups) if I need a savings at some position. As for Allen, that'll take a bit of 'splaining. Allen played a ton of minutes in the closest game in this series, but was not particularly effective, scoring just 14.5 fantasy points in 37 minutes of play. Not awesome. But there were signs of...

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/22/16 Opening Round Friday brings the next batch of first round Game 3s. These series shift to the lower seeds’ court, increasing the likelihood of closer games. At least, that’s what we’d expect. Thursday’s early games were both romps for the road team. That would indicate that home court advantage isn’t a big factor when significantly lower seeds are the teams at home. We have some information (or hardly any at all if you’re a statistician), but not many conclusions to be drawn. Perhaps the appropriate response is to focus on matchups and minutes. That’s really what we do in DFS to begin with. I want to point out that you’ll find exactly zero Spurs and Grizzlies recommended. The blowout risk, dicey rotations, and simple overall mismatch are too much. You’ll also find a pretty tight range of salaries. This is not the night to hunt for punts, as the options are too unpredictable for cash games, the focus of these recommendations. Note that this article’s format changed when the playoffs started. Additionally, there won’t be a separate update article. Check back to this article throughout the day Friday and review the discussion in the comments below for updated information.   Now’s your chance to get DFSR Pro with NBA Optimal Lineups, Projections, Player Cards and Google Chrome extension that auto-populates your lineups into FanDuel. Or try a free trial of our base package with projections for every player. While the seasons overlap, you'll get access to our tools for the NBA and NHL (and MLB when the time comes)! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with NBA? Be sure to read our free NBA Ebook on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. We've also launched a Stats and Research Page, which includes a lot of the individual statistics that we use to make our projections. It's free! Enjoy.   Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons Analysis Cleveland followed up a close win in Game 1 with a much more comfortable one in Game 2, blowing things open in the third quarter. The Cavs are only getting four points in this game after giving eleven in the first two, indicating that our friends in the desert and offshore think the Pistons are likely to keep things close again. That suggests plenty of run for the regular rotation players, even more for the guys who see the most court time given that rotations are tighter in the playoffs. In the last game, the Pistons ran their starters most of the game, but they weren’t very effective....

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/21/16 Opening Round Thursday brings us to the first games with higher seeds on the road. Home court advantage is something often speculated about, but I did some research to see if it really makes a difference, particularly in the first round of the playoffs. You can’t draw quite that specific of a conclusion, but there is definitely an advantage, and the best I can estimate is 5 points on the spread. That’s right in line with the spreads from the first two games of this years’ series compared to game 3. How helpful is that for DFS? I think you can expect that, at the margins, key players perform slightly better in Game 3 for the lower seeds. I can’t statistically validate this, but I suspect that higher seeds may play their top guys a little longer than usual if the games are closer. Keep those trends in mind when setting your lineups. Also, keep in mind that these projections assume Steph Curry will play his normal allotment of minutes. If he doesn’t go, the other GSW players will get significant bumps (especially Shaun Livingston and Draymond Green - no really). Note that this article’s format changed when the playoffs started. Additionally, there won’t be a separate update article. Check back to this article throughout the day Thursday and review the discussion in the comments below for updated information.   Now’s your chance to get DFSR Pro with NBA Optimal Lineups, Projections, Player Cards and Google Chrome extension that auto-populates your lineups into FanDuel. Or try a free trial of our base package with projections for every player. While the seasons overlap, you'll get access to our tools for the NBA and NHL (and MLB when the time comes)! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with NBA? Be sure to read our free NBA Ebook on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. We've also launched a Stats and Research Page, which includes a lot of the individual statistics that we use to make our projections. It's free! Enjoy.   Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks Analysis After a Game 1 beat-down by the Thunder, the Mavs came back and stole Game 2 at the buzzer in OKC. What changed? Dallas hit the boards and cut the rebounding deficit way down, and the Thunder (particularly KD) couldn’t make a shot. It will be interesting to see how much OKC’s shot was off due to defense or just variance. I’m looking for a bounce-back from the Durant-Westbrook combo, and the DFSR projections seem to agree....

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/20/16 Opening Round Wednesday’s three game slate brings us increased options compared to the two played on Tuesday. Technically that’s 50% more, a great example of Mark Twain’s explanation of the increasing magnitude of falsehoods: lies, damn lies, and statistics. Just because there are more options doesn’t translate to many options, so there's still not a lot of margin for error. Even in cash games, lineups will be similar. This is when playing late-night cash games with reduced slates during the regular season pays off. As usual in the first round of the playoffs, the biggest concern is court time. Examining blowout risk is a major theme below. Note that this article’s format changed when the playoffs started. Additionally, there won’t be a separate update article. Come back to this article throughout the day Wednesday and review the discussion in the comments below for updated information. Good luck all, though the plan is that you’ll need less, armed with DFSR’s projections and analysis.   Now’s your chance to get DFSR Pro with NBA Optimal Lineups, Projections, Player Cards and Google Chrome extension that auto-populates your lineups into FanDuel. Or try a free trial of our base package with projections for every player. While the seasons overlap, you'll get access to our tools for the NBA and NHL (and MLB when the time comes)! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with NBA? Be sure to read our free NBA Ebook on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. We've also launched a Stats and Research Page, which includes a lot of the individual statistics that we use to make our projections. It's free! Enjoy.   Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat Analysis The series began with a 32-point rout for the Heat, and the game wasn’t even that close. The real issue here is whether Steve Clifford and the Hornets can make the necessary adjustments to be competitive, given the opportunity to dig in and focus on one team. Our friends offshore upped the line just a point to 5 ½. For DFS players, that suggests a closer game and tighter rotations. Reviewing both teams’ minutes shows a pattern fairly close to what we saw in the regular season. In turn, it's reasonable to expect typical fantasy production from each of the clubs' usual suspects. Top Value Plays Nicolas Batum - FD 6900 DK 6600 Opponent - MIA FD Proj. Pts - 35.61 DK Proj. Pts - 37.73 Nic Batum is the top SF on FanDuel (FD) and DraftKings (DK) on a Pts/$ basis. In a game...

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/19/16 Opening Round A painfully short slate today, and one game is almost certainly going to be a blowout. The other one has tons of minutes uncertainty thanks to a 37 minute player going down in game 1. It's the NBA playoffs, DFS edition! Let's do work.   Now’s your chance to get DFSR Pro with NBA Optimal Lineups, Projections, Player Cards and Google Chrome extension that auto-populates your lineups into FanDuel. Or try a free trial of our base package with projections for every player. While the seasons overlap, you'll get access to our tools for the NBA and NHL (and MLB when the time comes)! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with NBA? Be sure to read our free NBA Ebook on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. We've also launched a Stats and Research Page, which includes a lot of the individual statistics that we use to make our projections. It's free! Enjoy.   Boston Celtics at the Atlanta Hawks Analysis After an incredibly tight game 1, the Celtics lose the guy who plays the most minutes for them in close games. With Avery Bradley on the bench, the Celtics will need to need to replace his defense primariy, and his offense secondarily. This should mean more minutes for Marcus Smart, Evan Turner, and Jae Crowder - all of whom will be chalk plays today. There is uncertainty around exactly how it will shake out, though, because the last time Bradley sat the Celtics were in a gimme against the Lakers. With more on the line, it's tough to predict exactly how all of this will shake out. With the incredible blowout potential of the only other game on the slate, my guess is that our lineup optimizer is going to be spitting out a lot of BOS/ATL stacks with a sprinkling of cheap dudes from SAS/MEM. Top Plays Marcus Smart - FD 5600 DK 4500 Opponent - ATL FD Proj. Pts - 26.27 DK Proj. Pts - 28.01 Evan Turner - FD 6000 DK 5800 Opponent - ATL FD Proj. Pts - 27.76 DK Proj. Pts - 28.59 The only two guys on the slate who will have an almost guaranteed uptick in minutes today, leading to slightly off prices. Both paid better than 5x on these FanDuel prices in game one, and both should see an expanded role out of the shooting guard position today. There's not really a whole lot else to break down, here - there are minutes available in what ought to be a close game,...