DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 7/16/21 – Main slate
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 7/16/21 - Main slate Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clickiang the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Robbie Ray FD 9800 DK 9300 Opponent - TEX (Jordan Lyles) Park - TEXFD - 36.88 DK - 19.48 Robbie Ray is putting together the season the Arizona Diamondbacks dreamed about for all those years. They never got it and now he’s awesome with Toronto. On the season, Ray is striking out more than 11 batters per nine and has finally limited the walks to fewer than two free passes per nine. He has a career-best 3.15 xFIP which is right in line with his 3.13 ERA. He is a -225 home favorite against the Rangers on Friday, the best win odds on the slate by far. Chris Bassitt FD 9900 DK 8500 Opponent - CLE (Eli Morgan) Park - CLEFD - 40.31 DK - 22 Like Robbie Ray, Bassitt is having the best season of his career, striking out a batter an inning and going longer into games as well. He’s averaging more than six innings per start on the season. The 3.97 xFIP is a bit worse than his 3.28 ERA, but he’s still in a good spot against the Indians on Friday. The A’s are -190 home favorites with an 8 over/under. The implied runs against are about the best on the slate outside of the doubleheaders. This is a great spot to run Ray/ Bassitt on DraftKings. Catcher/First Base Cody Bellinger FD 4000 DK 5000 Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COLFD - 16.93 DK - 12.62 Max Muncy FD 4400 DK 5800 Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COLFD - 16.83 DK - 12.4 The Dodgers are going to be a popular stack on Friday with the return from the All-Star Break, and for very good reason. They are heading into Coors and facing Antonio Senzatela in the best matchup and park on the slate. Muncy should be in the second slot in the lineup for LA and is having another fantastic season. His .973 OBA is elite, walking (18%) more than he strikes out (17%) and cranking out 19 home runs already. You have to pay for him for sure, like all the Dodgers, but not paying out the nose for pitching helps here. Meanwhile, Bellinger has really struggled so far this season with an OPS under .600, striking out at the highest rate of his career (27%). The more concerning number is the hard contact rate which is...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 7/11/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 7/11/21 - Main slate Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clickiang the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Brandon Woodruff FD - P 11200 DK - SP 10000 Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - MILFD - 43.44 DK - 24.93 The Reds are a really good offense this season which makes this something of a more questionable play. But it’s tough to look at Woodruff’s numbers and not just basically run him sight unseen. He’s striking out 10.5 batters per nine and he limits the walks as well. His 2.91 xFIP is among the best of the league and he’s running even better on the ERA. He’s been among the best WAR pitchers in the league this season and even with a bad matchup, he makes for the best cash game arm on the slate. José Berríos FD - P 9900 DK - SP 8000 Opponent - DET (Wily Peralta) Park - MINFD - 35.4 DK - 19.47 The Tigers rank in the bottom third of the league in team offense with a .304 wOBA. And they strike out more than 27% of the time as well, giving Berrios big-time K upside in this matchup. Berrios is having one of the best seasons of his career with a 3.52 xFIP that would be his best number over the last six seasons. He’s striking out more than a batter per inning and been able to get the walks back to what he was doing in 2019. He’s a -215 home favorite which gives him the best win probability on the slate. Catcher/First Base José Abreu FD - 1B 3600 DK - 1B 5900 Opponent - BAL (Spenser Watkins) Park - BALFD - 14.73 DK - 11.14 For the second day in a row, you are going to see a bunch of White Sox bats in this writeup. That’s what happens when you get a team facing a middling arm who doesn’t project to strike anyone out. That’s the case with Spenser Watkins who has a low ERA in his first few innings but hasn’t had swing and miss stuff at almost any level. Abreu’s power numbers and OPS are down this season, but that’s somewhat keeping the price in check and he’s got such a good matchup here. Trey Mancini FD - 1B 2900 DK - 1B 4400 Opponent - CHW (Dylan Cease) Park - BALFD - 11.56 DK - 8.79 Mancini hit second in the order for the Orioles on Saturday and could be...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 7/10/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 7/10/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Afternoon Lucas Giolito FD - P 9600 DK - SP 10300 Opponent - BAL (Thomas Eshelman) Park - BALFD - 36.26 DK - 19.76 Giolito has an xFIP more than half a run lower than his ERA (3.65) and is striking out almost 11 batters per nine on the season. He’s a -192 road favorite against the Orioles and I’m only a little concerned about the 10 over/under that opens here. That being said, he’s the best high-upside K guy on this slate. Anthony DeSclafani FD - P 8200 DK - SP 9500 Opponent - WSH (Jon Lester) Park - SFFD - 29.75 DK - 15.49 DeSclafani isn’t as good as the sub-3 ERA would suggest, but he’s still put together a very good season so far. He’s striking out about a batter an inning and has been able to keep the runs in check because he’s a fly ball pitcher in a huge pitchers park. He is allowing a 48% flyball rate which plays perfectly in San Francisco and comes into this game as a -180 home favorite against the Nationals. Pitching is on the weaker side for this slate. Evening Freddy Peralta FD - P 9900 DK - SP 9200 Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - MILFD - 42.29 DK - 24.23 Peralta is putting up huge strikeout numbers this season, putting down 12.5 batters per nine on the season. This isn’t a great matchup against the Reds who have a good offense, but he is still tough to pass up considering what he can get you for the upside. He’s a -190 home favorite here with an over/under of 9. The price isn’t reflective of what he can dial up with the strikeouts. Walker Buehler FD - P 10400 DK - SP 9600 Opponent - ARI (Caleb Smith) Park - LADFD - 40.08 DK - 22.03 Buehler enters the evening slate as a -260 favorite against the Diamondbacks who are among the worst teams in the league on offense. They rank 26th in team wOBA this season and are striking out around 24% of the time. Buehler has seen the Ks dip a little bit this season down to about a strikeout an inning, but he is still rocking decent peripherals. The xFIP is about a run higher than the ERA but he is still a borderline ace. On the evening slate he is the best...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 7/9/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 7/9/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Charlie Morton FD 10000 DK 9600 Opponent - MIA (Zach Thompson) Park - MIA FD - 34.54 DK - 18.93 This very well may be the worst pitching slate of the season and makes our decision to fade a high-priced ace very easy as there aren't any. We still have to roster a pitcher(two on DraftKings) and for me, it starts with Charlie Morton who has been providing nice PTS/$ value but now gets a monster price which is mostly relative to the options on this slate. While he did get hit around by these very Marlins in his last start, the matchup is on the plus side as they do rank bottom 10 in almost all offensive categories. This game also has the lowest total(7.5) on the slate and with strikeouts being king Morton gives us a 5-7 K floor. All things considered, he is my top pitcher on this slate and in play in all formats. Taijuan Walker FD - P 9500 DK - SP 9000 Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - NYM FD - 34.68 DK - 18.72 Walker got pushed up a day due to a rainout yesterday and has been terrific lately holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts(2.90 ERA/3.10 xFIP) with a 30% K rate. The Pirates don't strike out a lot(22% vs. RH pitching) which does limit the upside here but overall they rank as a bottom 5-10 offense giving Walker a nice PTS/$ floor in the $9K range on both sites. Kenta Maeda FD - P 7300 DK - SP 7100 Opponent - DET (Matt Manning) Park - MIN FD - 29.85 DK - 15.93 With an overall lack of serviceable options on this slate, I was a little surprised to see Maeda as a -205 favorite in the low $7K range on DraftKings. His first half has been a complete roller coaster ride but the good news is that he is coming off his best start of the season going six innings in KC allowing just two hits and no runs while striking out 10 and walking just one. If he limits the walks, he can easily get into the 6th inning giving him a very high PTS/$ floor and ceiling. Lock in the value at SP2 in all formats. Catcher/First Base Matt Olson FD 3700 DK 5400 Opponent - TEX (Jordan...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/8/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/8/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Taijuan Walker FD - P 9500 DK - SP 8400 Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - NYM FD - 33.32 DK - 18.1 Not going to lie. I am getting tired of being burned by elite-priced pitching and making the decision to fade those top ones is much easier tonight as they are facing each other(Max vs. Yu). I will be going with a much more balanced approach and it starts with Walker who has been terrific lately holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts(2.90 ERA/3.10 xFIP) with a 30% K rate. The Pirates don't strike out a lot(22% vs. RH pitching) but rank as a bottom-five offense overall leading to the Mets being big -195 favorites and Walker one of my favorite pitchers on this slate. Alek Manoah FD - P 10300 DK - SP 6800 Opponent - BAL (Keegan Akin) Park - BAL FD - 33.44 DK - 18.38 This is mostly a DraftKings-only play as he is massively underpriced, especially considering the rookie is coming off his best start of the season. It was also his longest outing(7 IP) and against a tough Rays team that he struck out 10 times. He now has a season-low price tag(since his debut) facing a bottom 10 offense in the Orioles who are also much worse against righties with an 84 wRC+ and 25% K rate. Manoah is my top, and likely chalk, SP2 on DraftKings and makes a nice high upside/low owned GPP pivot on FanDuel. Catcher/First Base Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD - 1B 4700 DK - 1B 6000 Opponent - BAL (Keegan Akin) Park - BAL FD - 16.83 DK - 12.77 The Blue Jays are like a super team tonight as they are easily the highest projected offense and despite being very expensive aren't too hard to fit if using Manoah as your SP2. While the lineup is stacked top to bottom it revolves around Valddy who is having an MVP-like first half hitting .344 with 28 home runs and 72 RBI. He and the Jays now get a matchup against a struggling Keegan Akin who has given up 6+ hits and 4+ earned runs in four straight starts. If you needed more convincing, Vladdy has destroyed lefties to the tune of a .409 wOBA and 159 wRC+. You know what to do! Eric Haase FD - C...