DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 5/23/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Max Fried FD 8500 DK 8600 Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - PITFD - 35.83 DK - 18.64 Fried enters as a -199 home favorite in this one, the best moneyline odds on the main slate. He's striking out more than 10 batters per nine though the walks remain an issue. Don't let the 5+ ERA fool you, the xFIP is about 1.5 runs lower. And now he gets a bottom-feeding Pirates offense with barely a bat in it. This is a great spot for Fried and we are buying low on him because his BABIP is way too high and his LOB% is way too low. Freddy Peralta FD - P 9900 DK - SP 10500 Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - CINFD - 38.37 DK - 21.26 This isn’t a great matchup for Peralta but there isn’t a ton of top-end talent taking the mound on the main slate for Sunday. Peralta might be as close as we get. He’s struck out 14 batters per nine this season good for a 39% K rate which is about as good as it gets in baseball. His 3.26 xFIP isn’t as good as the low 2’s ERA would suggest, but it’s still damn good. He’s a slight favorite against the Reds who have been a very good offense this season. And it’s in a good hitter’s park, but again, in terms of strikeout upside, Peralta is the best bet on the main slate. Cristian Javier FD - P 9100 DK - SP 9200 Opponent - TEX (Mike Foltynewicz) Park - TEXFD - 34.76 DK - 18.81 The Rangers are a bottom-third offensive team on the season and are striking out more than 26% of the time as a club. That’s going to have Javier in a good spot in the early games where he opens as a -163 road favorite. On the season, Javier is striking out close to 11 batters per nine and has kept the walks relatively in check. In terms of win expectation, his number is about as good as you’ll find on this slate and the cost isn’t prohibitive. He could be the chalk arm on the main slate. Jameson Taillon FD - P 6700 DK - SP 8100 Opponent - CHW (Dallas Keuchel) Park - NYYFD - 30.97 DK - 16.62 Taillon’s 5/3 ERA is, of course, bad. But his xFIP is nearly...

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 5/21/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Afternoon slate Lance McCullers Jr. FD - P 9400 DK - SP 9500 Opponent - TEX (Jordan Lyles) Park - TEXFD - 37.33 DK - 20.16 McCullers is one of the top options for the afternoon slate of games, coming in as a -174 road favorite against the Rangers. The run line is on the lower side, starting at 8.5 and McCullers looks fully healthy this season. He’s striking out more than 10 batters per nine on the season with an ERA under 3.00. The xFIP is a little higher and he’s gotten a bit lucky with the BABIP which is masking the walk rate just a tad. But he gets a Rangers offense that’s currently in the bottom-third of the league and strikes out more than 26% of the time. Shane Bieber (FD $11500 DK $11200) is the expenseive option here, but it’s hard to argue with him even at these price points. Evening slate Walker Buehler FD - P 10500 DK - SP 11000 Opponent - SF (Undecided) Park - SFFD - 35.18 DK - 19.38 Buehler isn’t striking batters out at the same rate he did over the last two seasons, with the K% under 28% for the first time in a while. But he’s mitigated that some by drastically reducing his walks per nine innings. The control has been elite and he’s sporting a 3.26 xFIP on the season. The Giants offense has actually been good this season with some turn-back-the-clock seasons from a few of their dudes. But Walker is still a value on this evening slate of games. He’s not cheap, but he’s the best arm going on this slate. Catcher/First Base Afternoon slate Josh Bell FD - 1B 3500 DK - 1B 4000 Opponent - BAL (Bruce Zimmermann) Park - WSHFD - 11.56 DK - 8.63 Bell has come out of the gate struggling and it’s been a carryover from his last season as well. There’s a good chance we aren’t going to see him return to the 2019 form when he cranked out 37 home runs. That season is looking like a blip for sure. But he’s still hitting in the middle of this Nationals’ lineup and they get one of the better matchups of the day against the lefty Bruce Zimmermann. Evening slate Danny Santana FD - DK - 1B 2400 Opponent - PHI (Spencer Howard) Park - PHIFD - 0...

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 5/21/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Trevor Bauer FD - P 11800 DK - SP 11900 Opponent - SF (Alex Wood) Park - SF FD - 44.15 DK - 24.29 First of all, I get the Giants put up a silly 19 runs yesterday but Bauer easily has the best matchup of the top tier starting pitchers tonight. On the season, the Giants actually went into that game sitting at exactly the league average in terms of wRC+(100) but what stands out the most is the 26% K rate on the season(6th most). For Bauer, he has been terrific in his first season with the Dodgers holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in eight straight and enters the night with a 2.20 ERA/3.08 xFIP and an elite 35% K rate. All things considered, Bauer is my to pitcher in all formats. Mike Minor FD - P 7600 DK - SP 7500 Opponent - DET (Jose Urena) Park - KC FD - 30.75 DK - 16.05 To fit Bauer on DraftKings at nearly $12K, we are going to need to find some value and Minor stands out for a couple of reasons. The Royals open as pretty big -150 favorites giving Minor some nice win equity and he has qualified for a win(5+ innings) in five of his last six starts. He has not been consistent at all but is coming off a great start limiting the White Sox to two hits and now gets an elite matchup vs. the Tigers who rank dead last vs. lefties in wOBA(.251), wRC+(58), and K rate(34%). He is my top value SP2 on DraftKings tonight. Also Consider: Stephen Strasburg(WAS) who is coming off the IL but did throw 75 pitches in his rehab start so there is a chance he goes 90+ pitches and is cheap on DraftKings making for big PTS/$ upside Catcher/First Base C.J. Cron FD - 1B 3300 DK - 1B 3800 Opponent - ARI (Riley Smith) Park - COL FD - 13.27 DK - 10 I am not prioritizing the Rockies at home in Coors as I have in previous seasons with their well-documented struggles but C.J. Cron is one name that jumps off the page. While almost the entire team is overpriced due to the "Coors factor", C.J. Cron has fallen under the radar since his return from the IL. in two games back, he has gone 3 for 7 with a double while...

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday, 5/20/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! This might end up being the smallest slate I write about all season. We have a four-game day slate and a four-game night ledger on this traveling Thursday card, and we're going to focus on the night slate beginning at 7ET. That means we have only eight teams in action and one of the smallest player pools you'll see. That's on full display when you see the lackluster pitching options, but that also means there are some fun bats to stack as well. With that in mind, let's kick things off with Vince Velasquez. Pitchers Vince Velasquez FD - P 7900 DK - SP 7500 Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - PHI FD - 32.89 DK - 17.59 The fact that Velasquez is our top pitcher says a lot about this slate, but I've always been partial to this guy. He had that one 16-K game against the Padres a few years back, and I've been going back to the well ever since. It hasn't always worked, but it has lately. VV has a 2.84 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9 rate over his last five starts. He's done that despite a few tough matchups, and this is certainly far from one of those. The Marlins currently rank 27th in K rate and dead-last in xwOBA. That's no surprise when you see that they're missing Starling Marte, making Velasquez one of the best plays on the board. Drew Smyly FD - P 7300 DK - SP 8400 Opponent - PIT (Wil Crowe) Park - ATL FD - 38.07 DK - 20.57 Smyly has been giving me frowns for a while now, but this dude has shown some serious potential in the past and at times this season. In his first four seasons, Smyly pitched to a 3.24 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, which is right on par with what he did in the shortened season last year. A couple of injury-riddled years killed his career numbers, and inconsistencies are the only thing holding him back this year. He's actually got at least 37 FanDuel points in three of his six starts which is an absurd number from a guy this cheap. The best part of this play is the matchup, though, with Pittsburgh ranked 24th in OBP, 29th in wOBA, and dead-last in wOBACON. Catcher/First Base Freddie Freeman FD - 1B 4100 DK - 1B 5200 Opponent - PIT (Wil Crowe) Park - ATL...

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 5/19/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Corbin Burnes FD - P 10500 DK - 10300 Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC FD - 40.82 DK - 18.6 We are blessed with some big-name pitching again tonight but there are two that stand out and it starts with Corbin Burnes. While the record has not been in his favor, it is almost completely on the lack of offense as Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in baseball with an elite 1.57 ERA and he backs that up with an even better xFIP(1.25). Then there is the upside as he enters the 58 strikeouts(45.3% K rate) and just that one walk. He also gets a plus matchup vs. a Royals team that ranks outside the Top 20 in wOBA(.301) ad wRC+(91) on the season and outside the Top 25 in those categories over the last two weeks. All things considered, Burnes is my top pitcher in all formats. Jack Flaherty FD - P 10800 DK - 9700 Opponent - PIT (Trevor Cahill) Park - STL FD - 41.73 DK - 19.2 As of writing this, the system has Flaherty slightly ahead of Burnes in terms of projection and it has to do with a combination of the Cardinals sitting as a bigger favorite(-201) in a game with a lower total(7.0). Flaherty has also been terrific lately holding opponents to one or fewer earned runs in five of his last seven starts and since that opening day blunder, he has tallied an elite 1.47 ERA. Like Burnes, Flaherty and the Cards also get a plus matchup vs. the Pirates who ranked 28th in wOBA(.290) and wRC+(83) on the season and produce runs 15% below league average vs. righties. On FanDuel, I can't ignore the $300 discount with Burnes but on DraftKings, Flaherty is easily a top PTS.$ play on this slate. Catcher/First Base Max Muncy FD - 1B 3800 DK - 5300 Opponent - ARI (Merrill Kelly) Park - LAD FD - 12.18 DK - 9.6 Here is what I wrote about Muncy yesterday before Kelly was pushed back: After somewhat of a slump, the Dodgers offense looks to be heating back up as they are averaging over 5.5 runs per game over the last 10 days.  Muncy has been a big part of that as he has hits in eight of those 10 games with five multi-hit efforts, five home runs, and 12 RBI....