DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 6/9/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 6/9/19Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!The last two days have been the quietest weather days of the season and we are so thankful that Mother Nature is not playing games with us. That's not exactly the case here though, as we have rain forecasted throughout the country. The cities/teams we need to focus in on here are Philly, Milwaukee, Chicago, Detroit and Kansas City. The good news is that all of these teams start within three hours of one another, so be sure to monitor forecasts before submitting lineups. PitchersJake Odorizzi FD - P 9800 DK - SP 10900 Opponent - DET (Ryan Carpenter) Park - DETFD - 37.72 DK - 20.29This guy is not getting the credit he deserves, as he's simply been one of the best pitchers in the AL. That's evident by the fact that the Minnesota righty is pitching to a 1.96 ERA and 0.96 WHIP so far this season. That has led to an 8-2 record, with Odorizzi striking out 70 batters across 64.1 innings. What really makes him tempting here is this matchup though, with Detroit ranked 29th in both wOBA and K rate while ranking dead-last in runs scored. That's why Vegas has Minnesota as a -255 favorite. Odorizzi isn't a flashy name, but he's a very solid play in any format today.Noah Syndergaard FD - P 8400 DK - SP 8900 Opponent - COL (Jeff Hoffman) Park - NYMFD - 36.87 DK - 19.8The inconsistency of Syndergaard makes him a tough pitcher to trust but this drop in price limits the amount of risk. The baseline numbers are not pretty from Syndergaard but the peripherals tell us that he's been very unlucky this season. In fact, Thor is posting a .278 xwOBA which is right in line with his 2.79 career FIP. That doesn't even consider the fact that Syndergaard is providing a 27 percent career K rate, as he simply has some of the best stuff in the Majors. Facing the Rockies when they are on the road is a treat too, with Colorado ranking 28th in road OPS the in each of the last two seasons. Our projection system really likes Madison Bumgarner at home against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Catcher/First BaseJi-Man Choi FD - 1B 2800 DK - 1B 4100 Opponent - BOS (Eduardo Rodriguez) Park - BOSFD - 10.18 DK - 7.67The slugging first baseman has quietly been a productive fantasy producer this season and it's a wonder why his price remains so low....
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 6/8/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 6/8/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Early Zack Greinke FD - P 9600 DK - SP 10100 Opponent - TOR (Aaron Sanchez) Park - TOR FD - 36.74 DK - 20.09 Greinke is coming off one of his worst starts of the season(4 IP, 4 ER, 2 K) against the Mets but I have no issue going back to the well as he has been one of the more consistent arms in all of baseball. He has held opponents to three or fewer earned runs in 11 of his last 13 starts for an impressive 3.09 ERA which is backed up an above average 3.47 xFIP. He has given up a home run in three straight and has a 15% HR/FB rate on the season but that doesn't seem sustainable moving forward seeing as he is giving up a very low 86 mph average exit velo(26th among starters) combined with a low 32% hard contact rate. What stands out more than anything here is the matchup against the Jays who have been a bottom-feeding offense all season and have bottom three wOBA(.287), wRC+(78), and K rate(25%) against right-handed pitching. All things considered, Greinke is my top cash game pitcher on this slate. Lucas Giolito FD - P 11400 DK - SP 11200 Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC FD - 38.11 DK - 19.49 Giolito is one of my favorite pitchers to write about this season as he has gone from a gas can in 2018 that we targeted against on the regular to a near elite ace we target almost every start in 2019. What changed? A lot actually and it starts with him ditching the sinker that he threw 19% of the time a year ago while opponents crushed it to the tune of a .339 wOBA/125 wRC+/19.4% HR/FB. He has replaced it with a four-seam fastball that opponents are hitting just .238 off with a .287 wOBA/89 wRC+ while it also generates over a 9% swinging strike rate. He is also throwing a changeup almost 10% more and that pitch is generating a crazy 19% swinging strike rate. The other change, and while it may seem small, has been his setup position on the first base side of the rubber vs. the middle. I am back on him today as he gets a plus matchup against a Royals team that has really struggled lately with a .290 wOBA, 78 wRC+, and 27% K rate...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 6/6/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 6/6/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Joey Lucchesi FD - P 8200 DK - SP 9000 Opponent - WSH (Patrick Corbin) Park - SD FD - 32.08 DK - 16.82 Pitching on the main slate tonight is actually fairly complicated. While it seems like there is one clear ace going (more on him in a minute), our system is prioritizing Joey Lucchesi instead. Why? Well, there are a few reasons. The first comes down to Lucchesi himself. He's striking out a batter per inning, has upped his ground-ball rate to 49.5%, and has maintained a 3.71 xFIP this year. That's pretty solid. He's pitching in the spacious Petco Park, and you love to see that as well. But this is where it gets weird. On paper, the Nationals are just a much tougher match-up than the Padres are. Their OPS is .059 points higher against southpaws, and they strikeout 5% less often. And yes, Vegas sees this as a pick 'em with a 7.5 total. I actually have my doubts, and I highly recommend betting the Nats here, but if they are even close to correct taking the savings on Lucchesi looks like a no-brainer. Patrick Corbin FD - P 10900 DK - SP 10300 Opponent - SD (Joey Lucchesi) Park - SD FD - 35.33 DK - 19.17 The other half of the best pitching match-up on the slate, Corbin has to be one of the more underrated pitchers in the Majors right now. He piloted a sparkling 2.61 xFIP last season to a pedestrian 11 and 7 record, and never really got credit as one of 2018's very best pitchers. This year he's taken a slight step back, as his K/9 has dipped below 10 and his BB/9 and HR/9 have crept upward. Still, Corbin is an excellent pitcher, and this really is a great match-up. The Padres hold the 3rd highest K rate in the majors vs. left handed pitching while ranking in the bottom 10 in wOBA, and while they have some better right handed bats than they did last year I just can't sit here and feel scared of facing them in Petco. Maybe it's nuts, but I don't even mind running Corbin and Lucchesi against one another on a night without a lot of great options. Also considered: Tyler Skaggs. A quick note on the Cleveland/Minnesota match-up. With Berrios and Bauer facing off, you have two legitimately good pitchers that blend both a...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 6/5/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 6/5/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Charlie Morton FD - P 10400 DK - SP 11600 Opponent - DET (Spencer Turnbull) Park - DET FD - 38.04 DK - 21.26 Morton has been a huge contributor to the Rays leading the league with an outstanding 2.64 rotation ERA this season. Outside of one start against Boston, he has been extremely consistent holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 10 of his 12 starts and sits with a 2.54 ERA on the season with a 3.41 xFIP to back it up. After eight straight seasons posting a sub 20% K rate, he has seen an uptick in five straight years and sits with a career-high 30.4% K rate and 12.6% swinging strike rate this season. He now gets an elite matchup against a Tigers team that has been much worse against righties and have been better than only the Marlins in wOBA(.293), wRC+(74), and ISO(.150) and have an ugly 26.4% K rate in the splits and have struck out 28% of the time over the past seven days. Morton is my top pitcher in all formats. James Paxton FD - P 10000 DK - SP 11300 Opponent - TOR (Trent Thornton) Park - TOR FD - 40.56 DK - 22.88 Paxton was on a pitch count in his return from injury in his last start but looked like peak Paxton tossing four no-hit innings while striking out seven and still managed to tally 33 FD/21.8 DK points. With that performance, I fully expect him to get at least 85+ pitches tonight and he gets another premium matchup against a Jays team that has been bad overall but slightly worse against lefties with a .283 wOBA, 75 wRC+, .163 ISO, and 25.5% K rate. Paxton also throws his fastball 64% of the time with a 12.6% swinging strike while the Jays rank dead last against fastballs to this point in the season. Unless there is word of another pitch count, I think we can target Paxton in all formats and even if there is a pitch count I will be targeting in GPP formats in this spot. Brad Peacock FD - P 8600 DK - SP 9600 Opponent - SEA (Mike Leake) Park - SEA FD - 28.92 DK - 15.49 After finishing the 2017 season with 21 starts in his last 22 outings with an impressive 3.27 ERA/3.67 xFIP, Peacock was sent back to the pen in 2018...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 6/2/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 6/2/19Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! We've had a pretty light weather week all things considered but we do have some concerns here. There are a few games we do need to focus in on, with Pittsburgh, Texas, Chicago, New York and Baltimore all having rain in the forecast. That's scary for DFS owners but luckily, all of the games start within three hours of one another. PitchersRich Hill FD - P 8900 DK - SP 9600 Opponent - PHI (Nick Pivetta) Park - LADFD - 33.07 DK - 18.08This price really shocks me and it's hard to understand why these DFS sites continue to undervalue Hill. We're talking about one of the best arms in the Majors, with Hill pitching to a 2.96 ERA and 1.05 WHIP since 2015. That's nearly identical to his numbers for this year and it's hard to argue with his 30 percent K rate in that span. That obviously puts him in play and it's hard to understand why he remains a four-figure player. Vegas appears to love Hill too, as they have him as a -190 favorite with Philly projected for only four runs.Lucas Giolito FD - P 10600 DK - SP 11100 Opponent - CLE (Zach Plesac) Park - CHWFD - 34.32 DK - 17.32Giolito was a gas can last season but he's truly developed into one of the best pitchers in the league this season. What's really impressive is his recent form, with Giolito posting a 1.24 ERA and 0.69 WHIP over his last five starts while striking out 39 batters across 36.1 innings. That shows us that he's truly taken the next step in his game and we love him against the Indians. So far this season, Cleveland ranks 25th in scoring and 26th in both OPS and wOBA. Post hype prospects for the win, it seems. Gerrit Cole has one of the best K rates in Major League history and is worth considering, despite the high price tag and tough matchup against the A's. Catcher/First BaseDaniel Murphy FD - 1B 3900 DK - 1B 4900 Opponent - TOR (Aaron Sanchez) Park - COLFD - 14.81 DK - 11.37The Rockies are at home and that means we're getting at least a few of these guys into our article. We really like Murphy with the platoon advantage in his favor, with the lefty posting an OPS north of .900 against righties dating back to 2016. While he did get off to a slow start this season, recent results...