DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 6/19/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Early Gerrit Cole FD - P 12000 DK - SP 11400 Opponent - CIN (Tyler Mahle) Park - CIN FD - 40.57 DK - 22.82 Despite the downgrade in park factor, Gerrit Cole is easily the pitcher on the early slate today. He has been absolutely lights out lately holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in four straight and six of his last seven starts(3.07 ERA/2.26 xFIP) while tallying 10+ K's four times. Overall, he leads the league(qualified) with an elite 2.48 xFIP and eye-popping 38.8% K rate. He now gets a plus matchup against a Reds team that has not only struggles lately(.289 wOBA, 74 wRC+, 149 ISO last 14 days) but has also struggled slightly more against righties(.298 wOBA, 80 wRC+, 24% K rate). Weather permitting, there should be more than enough value plays pop up when lineups come out to pay up for Cole in all formats. Also Consider: Blake Snell(TB) or Zach Eflin(PHI) as GPP plays on the road in tougher matchups Main Rich Hill FD - P 9600 DK - SP 10300 Opponent - SF (Drew Pomeranz) Park - LAD FD - 36.61 DK - 19.97 The main slate gives us a nice selection of pitchers at the top but with Scherzer questionable(likely starts) and Giolito in a tougher matchup vs. the Cubs, I will be riding with Rich Hill. Through nine starts he has yet to allow more than three earned runs in a start while averaging 5.8 innings and 93.3 pitchers per start. Not only has he been consistent for cash games, but he has also provided upside with a 27% K rate. The matchup also stands out tonight as he faces a Giants team that has struggled lately(.284 wOBA, 75 wRC+, .113 ISO last 14 days) and also rank at the bottom of the league against lefties(.273 wOBA, 68 wRC+, 24% K rate). Fire up Hill in all formats, especially on FanDuel where he is in the sub $10K range. Also Consider: Andrew Heaney(LAA) as an SP2 on DraftKings or GPP pivot on FanDuel in a plus matchup against the Jays Listen to "Wednesday MLB DFS Podcast with Bonus NBA thoughts and reactions - 6/19/19" on Spreaker. Catcher/First Base Early Eric Hosmer FD - 1B 3100 DK - 1B 4400 Opponent - MIL (Zach Davies) Park - SD FD - 10.31 DK - 7.9 Some positions on this slate are a bit tricky...

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 6/16/19Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!Weather has been fairly kind to us recently but Mother Nature is wreaking havoc on this slate. In fact, nearly half of the games have rain in their forecast. The home teams we need to focus in on are Chicago, Baltimore, Colorado, Washington, Atlanta and New York. That's a ton of weather issues and it'll be key to monitor forecasts before submitting lineups. PitchersTrevor Bauer FD - P 11300 DK - SP 11200 Opponent - DET (Spencer Turnbull) Park - DETFD - 38.85 DK - 21.18Bauer has been a slight disappointment for season-long owners this season but this matchup is a recipe for success. The reason for that is because Bauer should be in for a ton of strikeouts, facing an offense like this. Not only does Detroit rank 29th in runs scored and 27th in wOBA, the Tigers also have the worst K rate in the Majors dating back to last season. That's extremely encouraging considering the fact that Bauer has a 29 percent K rate in that span. It's not like Bauer has been terrible either, pitching to a 3.71 ERA and 1.18 WHIP while throwing at least five innings in all 15 of his starts. Vegas agrees with this assessment, as they have the Indians as a -165 favorite with the Tigers projected for only 3.5 runs. Brad Peacock FD - P 8500 DK - SP 8800 Opponent - TOR (Trent Thornton) Park - HOUFD - 35.11 DK - 18.9Peacock has quietly been one of the best pitchers in the league over the last month. In fact, Peacock has generated a 2.01 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over his last seven starts while striking out 45 batters across 40.1 innings. Those are obviously elite numbers and it's scary to think that he has the best offense in the league behind him. That's why he enters this game as a -240 favorite. Facing the Blue Jays is simply the icing on the cake, with Toronto ranking 27th in runs scored, 28th in wOBA and 21st in K rate. Our projection model loves James Paxton against the Chicago White Sox as well. It's also hard to argue with using Hyun Jin-Ryu, as he leads the league in nearly every pitching statistic. Catcher/First BaseJoey Votto FD - 1B 3100 DK - 1B 4000 Opponent - TEX (Ariel Jurado) Park - CINFD - 12.91 DK - 9.67The Votto hatred has gone too far for my liking and recent results would indicate that he's...

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 6/15/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Noah Syndergaard FD - P 9000 DK - SP 9300 Opponent - STL (Michael Wacha) Park - NYM FD - 34.54 DK - 18.26 The industry was down on Syndergaard thanks to an underwhelming start to the season, but our lineup optimizer has stood by his side. That paid off in his last start against the Rockies, where Thor went seven scoreless innings, fanning seven and allowing just three base runners. Tonight he'll get a very similar match-up with the Cardinals, who rank as slightly worse against RHP this season than the Rockies do while striking out a hair less as well. With Syndergaard it just comes down to his prices, though. He's too cheap for his upside, and when we have signs that he's realizing that upside again he remains a very attractive DFS option. Aaron Nola FD - P 8800 DK - SP 8500 Opponent - ATL (Sean Newcomb) Park - ATL FD - 30.73 DK - 16.58 Speaking of 26 year old right handed studs that are off to slow starts to the beginning of the 2019 season, I present to you Mr. Aaron Nola. While the Phillies' ace has taken a step back in a couple of areas this season (most noticeably his lousy 3.99 BB/9), he is still a far more effective pitcher than his 4.58 ERA would suggest. After a tough March and April, Nola bounced back with a 3.29 xFIP in May, which almost identical to 2018's 3.21 number. He seems to have figured out his control issues to some degree while adding a few additional strikeouts, and I'm ready to treat him like an ace again. The issue with playing Nola in cash games is the Braves, of course. They're a top 10 team against right handed pitching, and this doesn't look like a super safe play by any means. Still, Nola has as much upside as anyone, and I'm happy to roll him out if I am just trying to shoot the moon. He's also looking pretty tempting at $8,500 as a pitcher two option on DraftKings. Jake Odorizzi FD - P 10000 DK - SP 10900 Opponent - KC (Glenn Sparkman) Park - MIN FD - 37.61 DK - 20.23 I can't say I'm over the moon about this play if you compare it to just running Syndergaard on FanDuel, but if you're not a believer in Thor Odorizzi is a reasonable plan...

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 6/13/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Jacob deGrom FD - P 10400 DK - SP 10400 Opponent - STL (Jack Flaherty) Park - NYM FD - 39.99 DK - 22.52 Let's start right at the top tonight on this smaller nine-game slate. There are some top options who have been consistent(Kershaw, Greinke) but have drawn tougher matchups tonight placing Jacob deGrom as the top option on this slate from a raw points perspective. He is coming off a 10 K performance against the Rockies and since the start of May, he has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in seven of eight starts for a tidy 2.72 ERA/3.43 xFIP. He and the Mets open as -140 home favorites against a Cardinals team that is just below average offensively against righties(.316 wOBA, 95 wRC+, .157 ISO) and have been struggling overall lately with a .285 wOBA, 76 wC+, and 27% K rate over the last 14 days. The Mets offense has also been hot lately adding to the win potential in this matchup and further cementing deGrom as my top pitcher in all formats. Matthew Boyd FD - P 10700 DK - SP 10700 Opponent - KC (Homer Bailey) Park - KC FD - 37.04 DK - 20.23 We have discussed a few different pitchers(Giolito, Castillo) who went from struggling last year to making some big changes and seeing early success in 2019. Boyd is another as he comes into tonight with an impressive 3.08 ERA which is, by far, a career-high in that area(career 4.76 ERA) and before you go shouting "regression" from the rooftops, consider he is also running a tidy 3.43 xFIP to back it up. The biggest change was throwing more four-seam fastball and sliders and fewer curves and changeups which has helped him drop the walk rate(4.4%) and raise the strikeout rate(30.5%). He now gets a plus matchup against a Royals team that has really struggled vs. lefties with a .279 wOBA, 71 wRC+, .131 ISO, and 25% K rate. With their prices so close and deGrom having the slightly worse matchup, I fully expect the ownership to be close and I am fine with either in all formats tonight. Also Consider: Marcus Stroman(TOR) vs. the Orioles or J.A. Happ vs. White Sox as value SP2's Catcher/First Base Luke Voit FD - 1B 4200 DK - 1B 5100 Opponent - CHW (Ivan Nova) Park - CHW FD - 12.61 DK - 9.55 Gary Sanchez...

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 6/12/19 Wednesday brings us another full day of baseball. Let's look at core plays for the eight-game main slate.Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Justin Verlander FD - P 11100 DK - SP 11300 Opponent - MIL (Brandon Woodruff) Park - HOU FD - 39.17 DK - 21.84 Verlander is clearly the most talented pitcher and top option from a raw points perspective on this slate despite the bad matchup against the Brewers. Verlander has been terrific since joining the Astros and while he is not quite on the same level as last season(outlier), he has still been great this year posting a 2.40 ERA, 31% K rate, and 15% swinging strike rate coming into tonight. The one argument that could be made against him is the xFIP(3.67) that is just over a run worse than the ERA which can be correlated to his minuscule .172 BABIP(.282 career BABIP). Digging deeper using baseball savant data, he sits with an xwOBA(.267) that is actually 17 points lower than his wOBA given up so I don't think he exactly fits the regression mold like other pitchers. Verlander has also been dominant against left-handed batters(2.99 xFIP, .183 wOBA, .250 SLG) and the Brewers are lefty-heavy so all in all, I Verlander in all formats on tonight's slate. Mike Soroka FD - P 10600 DK - SP 10900 Opponent - PIT (Mitch Keller) Park - ATL FD - 32.53 DK - 17.4 Doug and I talked about Soroka on the podcast last Friday and I made a strong case(in my opinion) for why the regression would not be as sudden for Soroka who is second overall with a 1.38 ERA. The xFIP(3.50) is just over two runs higher than the ERA and he is operating with a very unsustainable .219 BABIP but he also generates an elite 59% ground ball rate and a very low 85.3 mph average exit velo which is Top 10 among all starters. Pitchers who can generate that kind of ground ball rate and so little hard contact can definitely live with a higher xFIP. His composure at 21 years old is what stands out the most to me as nothing seems to ever get to him. Like Verlander, Soroka doesn't exactly get the best matchup tonight against a Pirates team that is better against righties but I am not worrying too much as overall, they are just league average in that split. With Verlander only a touch more expensive...