DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 6/22/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 6/22/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Freddy Peralta FD - P 9500 DK - SP 10000 Opponent - ARI (Zac Gallen) Park - ARI FD - 40.65 DK - 23.19 If you are into pitching as much as I am, this is the slate for you. The system has Gerrit Cole up top in terms of raw points but I am taking the discount and rolling with Freddy Peralta as my top pitcher tonight. After running almost exclusively out of the bullpen in 2020, he is back in the rotation and has been terrific holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in seven straight and 11 of 13 starts good for a 2.28 ERA/3.39 xFIP. He also gets the much better matchup against the D-backs team that went into Monday losers of 17 straight games while tallying a league-low 66 wRC+ and .109 ISO. He is my top overall pitcher and his best value comes on FanDuel in the mid $9K range. Lucas Giolito FD - P 10500 DK - SP 9400 Opponent - PIT (Tyler Anderson) Park - PIT FD - 40.15 DK - 21.59 What I like more about fading Gerrit Cole in cash is that it allows us to easily pay up for two really good pitchers and my favorite for SP2 is Giolito who is back down in the mid $9K range on DraftKings. While he has been having issues keeping the ball in the yard(7 HR last 4 starts), he has hit at least 2x value on DK at these prices in six straight starts thanks to his K upside as he has struck out 35% of batters in that time. The power issue is also less of an issue in this matchup as the Pirates have a league-worst .125 ISO on the season and produce runs close to 20% below league average(park-adjusted). All things considered, Giolito is in my player pool in all formats. Catcher/First Base Yuli Gurriel FD - 1B 3200 DK - 1B 4700 Opponent - BAL (Jorge López) Park - BAL FD - 16.01 DK - 12.28 The first thing that jumps off the page when looking at the bats for this slate is how underpriced most of the Astros are tonight. The value mostly comes on DraftKings where Gurriel, Correa, and Alvarez are all still in the $4K range while 40 players on this slate are in the $5K or more. What makes that even...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 6/18/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 6/18/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Trevor Bauer FD - P 10500 DK - SP 10600 Opponent - ARI (Caleb Smith) Park - ARI FD - 44.03 DK - 24.18 Looking at the top-tier pitchers tonight, both Rodon and Burnes have better xFIP's and K rates but it's Bauer who I like the most tonight and it really comes down to matchup. He gets to face a D-backs team that has dropped 14 straight while averaging just 3.5 runs per game and in terms of wRC+ they are 18% worse against right-handed pitching. All things considered, Bauer is my top payup at pitcher on this slate. José Berríos FD - P 9000 DK - SP 8500 Opponent - TEX (Mike Foltynewicz) Park - TEX FD - 31.97 DK - 17.33 With the other top-priced pitchers in either tough matchups(Rodon vs. HOU) or terrible pitching environments(Burnes in Coors) my choice at SP2 is pretty easy here with Jose Berrios. The Twins are early -160 favorites against a bottom-five offense in the Rangers that has been even worse lately losing 16 of their last 19 games while averaging a league-low 3.5 runs per game during that stretch. For Berrios, he has been very consistent all season with a 3.49 ERA/.340 xFIP and has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts. All things considered, Berrios is my top pitcher on this slate. Catcher/First Base Jared Walsh FD - 1B 3600 DK - 1B 5500 Opponent - DET (Jose Urena) Park - LAA FD - 11.87 DK - 8.9 The decision to release Pujols was in large part to Walsh needing more playing time at first. While the average(.254) has been lower than expected since Pujols departure, Walsh does have nine home runs and 25 RBI in that time. What I like best here is the elite matchup against Jose Urena(5.16 ERA/4.98 xFIP) and had given up a .306 average and .356 wOBA to lefties. Fire up Walsh in all formats. Daniel Vogelbach FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 4500 Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL FD - 11.44 DK - 8.46 For value at first base, it is hard to ignore the price on Vogelbach as the Brewers continue their series in Coors Field. What stands out more than the park factor is the fact he has been red hot in June with hits in 10 of...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday, 6/17/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday, 6/17/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Joe Musgrove FD - P 8500 DK - SP 8900 Opponent - CIN (Wade Miley) Park - SD FD - 38.73 DK - 21.21 Musgrove looks fantastic on a slate where a lot of the other big name pitchers have question marks. His team is a -163 favorite in a game with just a 7 run total against the Cincinnati Reds. He's maintained a 12 K/9 after last year's breakout season, and he's posting a career best 1.75 BB/9. If there's one fly in the ointment it's relatively tough match-up with the Reds, but if Vegas isn't scared then I'm not either. Jose Urquidy FD - P 7500 DK - SP 7900 Opponent - CHW (Dylan Cease) Park - HOU FD - 32.66 DK - 16.99 Urquidy is not a conventional cash game play, but he does have a lot going for him here. His excellent 1.6 BB/9 walkrate helps him go deep into games, finishing 7 innings in three of his last six starts. His lack of big time strikeout stuff can get him chased on occasion, though, so there is certainly blowup potential. The White Sox are a tough match-up, but they are considerably better against left handed pitching, and I'm considering rolling the dice with Urquidy in my pitcher 2 slot on DraftKings. Also considered: Stroman and Ohtani. I don't trust Stroman's recent strikeout surge, though, and Ohtani hasn't been going super deep into games when coming off the mound. I prefer the above options as a result. Catcher/First Base Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD - 1B 4400 DK - 1B 5900 Opponent - NYY (Michael King) Park - TOR FD - 12.84 DK - 9.74 It's amazing how young players can go from struggling to superstar in such a short period of time. I can't remember an explosion like this since Mike Trout went from zero to hero in a single year, but Guerrero seems to be up to the task. He's lapping the field in WAR, leads the league in homers, OBP, and SLG, and all of this at age 22. The bad news is that he'll be facing Michael King today. Just kidding. King is a journeyman type that projects as a long reliever, and Vlad should eat him for breakfast. Gary Sánchez FD - C 3000 DK - C 4800 Opponent - TOR (Undecided) Park - TOR FD - 11.16 DK - 9.12...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 6/16/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 6/16/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Early Lucas Giolito FD - P 10000 DK - SP 9900 Opponent - TB (Ryan Yarbrough) Park - CHW FD - 38.24 DK - 20.68 The early slate gives us a choice between two ace pitchers in average-at-best matchups and while the system has Peralta slightly ahead I personally lean Giolito. There have been a few starts that have gotten away from him but he has been consistent lately with a 2.86 ERA/3.55 xFIP while striking out 31% of batters over eight starts since the start of May. While the overall matchups are almost identical, Giolito gets the edge as the Rays strike out 27% of the time overall(2nd most) and 26% vs. right-handed pitching(4th most). Fire up Gioito in all formats. Also Consider: Tyler Mahle(CIN) as a GPP pivot in a plus matchup against the Brewers who have a 83 wRC+ and 26% K rate vs. right-handed pitching Main Gerrit Cole FD - P 11000 DK - SP 10500 Opponent - TOR (Ross Stripling) Park - TOR FD - 46.14 DK - 26.36 The main slate also gives us a big choice to make at the top but I just can't fully trust deGrom will get his max innings after leaving early(80 pitches) in his last start. I also like the fact that Gerrit Cole has dropped below $11K on DraftKings for the first time in close to a month. While the K rate is down some(36.7%) it is still in elite territory and he has been consistent holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 11 of 13 starts(1 or less in 7 starts) this season. He has also had the Jays number holding them to just three earned runs over two starts with 16 strikeouts. All things considered, he is my top pitcher in cash games and my exposure in GPP will come down to deGrom status throughout the day. Also Consider: Clayton Kershaw(LAD) as a -150 favorite in a low total(7.5) game facing a Phillies team that strikes out 27.6% vs. left-handed pitching Catcher/First Base Early Matt Olson FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 5700 Opponent - LAA (Griffin Canning) Park - OAK FD - 11.98 DK - 8.88 The price is pretty much at its peak on DraftKings but first is pretty thin on the early slate and Matt Olson is not only having a breakout season, but he also gets an elite...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 6/15/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 6/15/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Yu Darvish FD - P 9000 DK - SP 9400 Opponent - COL (Chi Chi Gonzalez) Park - COL FD - 38.18 DK - 21.54 You know it's a weird night for pitching when our top pitcher gets a huge park downgrade heading into Coors Field. What stands out the most and reason for his lofty PTS/$ projection is the fact he is near season-low pricing on both sites sitting 3rd/4th in pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel. While the K upside has been up and down, Darvish has been consistent holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 11 of 13 starts this season. If you can get past the ballpark the matchup is a plus one as the Rockies have scored a league-low 91 runs over the last month and have an ugly 67 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching. Fire up Darvish in all formats. Trevor Rogers FD - P 10000 DK - RP 10000 Opponent - STL (Undecided) Park - STL FD - 34.96 DK - 18.8 The optimizer often pairs two top pitchers on DraftKings and that will most likely be the case tonight with a lack of pitching and Rogers/Darvish combined salary being under $20K. Rogers has also been terrific to start his second season averaging almost six innings per start and has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in seven straight and 12 of his 13 starts(3 ER in the other). He has not only been consistent but provided but upside as well with a 30% K rate/15% swinging-strike rate and now faces a struggling Cardinals team that has posted a 80 wRC+ and 26% K rate over the last two weeks. I will have exposure in all formats. Also Consider: Casey Mize(DET) as value SP2 option who has posted a 2.45 ERA over his last seven starts Catcher/First Base Daniel Vogelbach FD - 1B 3000 DK - 1B 3800 Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - MIL FD - 9.36 DK - 6.92 It another Coors night and I really like the matchup or the Padres which means we are going to need some value if we want to stack them. One team I have turned to quite a bit recently for value has been the Brewers and specifically the top of the lineup. While hitting just .221 on the season, Vogelbach has been consistent in the short term with hits in...