DFSR’s Daily Fantasy MLB Podcast for FanDuel & DraftKings Friday 8/17/18
DFSR's Daily Fantasy MLB Podcast for FanDuel & DraftKings Friday 8/17/18 The DFSR crew of Doug Norrie and James Davis take to the podcast discussing a full Friday of MLB action for DraftKings and FanDuel. They start off looking at the, fairly obvious, cash pitcher in Max Scherzer. He’s among the very best arms in the league and gets to take on a Marlins’ team ranked near the bottom of the league on offense. There is something of a case to be made for Carlos Carrasco as well who is also a big favorite and gets a bottom-feeding Tigers’ team. Then they talk about Robbie Ray and Kyle Gibson as SP2 options on DraftKings. There are a lot of bad pitchers taking the mound and plenty of stacking options like the Indians against David Hess, Reds against Casey Kelly, Nationals against Dan Straily and many more. Be sure to subscribe...
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 8/17/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/17/18 Let's get rolling on a full Friday of baseball action for DraftKings and FanDuel. We've got Scherzer, Carrasco and some offenses coming cheap against weaker arms. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Max Scherzer FD 12000 DK 12600 Opponent - MIA (Dan Straily) Park - WSH FD - 52.39 DK - 29.29 What is there to write about the guy that isn’t already in existence somewhere on the internet? He’s the 4th-best pitcher in WAR (5.9 - best in the NL), strikes out batters at a better than 12 K’s per nine clip, and is actually walking batters at a career-low rate. He’s among the tippy-top (pro term) tier of arms in the league and short of a terrible matchup is in the discussion for cash games. Luckily, there are no matchup concerns in this one, facing off against the Marlins who rank 28th against righties in wOBA this season. Max is a crazy -375 opening home favorite, one of the highest lines of the entire season for any team. So the win expectation is through the roof. Even at these upper tier prices, there isn’t much of a reason to get away from him in cash. Carlos Carrasco FD 10700 DK 11200 Opponent - BAL (David Hess) Park - CLE FD - 42.76 DK - 23.35 This dude is just straight up good. He’s on his third season out of four striking out more than ten batters per nine. And this year has even been able to cut down on the walks as well (6.2% to 4.9%). It’s helping him average more than six innings per start. The 3.11 xFIP is good for top ten in the league among qualified starters. He’s an interesting pivot from Scherzer on Friday considering Carrasco also has a nut-so money line: -360 at home against the Orioles. Baltimore isn’t as bad as the Marlins, but they are close. They strike out 24% of the time against righties this season and rank in the bottom-third of the league in that split. Scherzer has more K upside for sure, but Carrasco is coming 12-14% cheaper depending on the site. You can talk yourself into the extra dollars for bats by pivoting down the Carrasco and you’d still be in a great spot. Robbie Ray FD 8700 DK 7600 Opponent -...
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 8/15/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/15/18 Wednesday in MLB action brings us a few early games and a modest slate of evening games. We get a couple aces, some offenses in good spots and decent amount of question marks in the middle. Let's wade through some of the considerations on DraftKings and FanDuel. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Main Gerrit Cole FD 10400 DK 12200 Opponent - COL (Tyler Anderson) Park - HOU FD - 43.26 DK - 23.25 Honestly, what does this guy need to do for the FanDuel price to come up? It’s like the pricing algorithm is stuck on some kind of error cycle where no matter how good the guy is, we still get him at sub $11K rates. This is a dude with the third-best K% stuff in the majors (34.2%) and 2.74 xFIP who clears 6.5 innings per start. I mean, what do you need from the guy? He faces off against a Rockies’ team rated below average against righty pitching and striking out 23% of the time in the split. Colorado comes in at a day-low 3.1 implied run line and Cole is the second-best money line favorite on the day at -190. On FanDuel, this seems like one of the easiest calls in awhile. You aren’t paying any kind of premium on one of the best pitchers in the game against a weaker offense. Roster him and call it a day. Kevin Gausman FD 7200 DK 8700 Opponent - MIA (Jose Urena) Park - ATL FD - 34.97 DK - 17.86 His first two starts in a Braves’ uniform went okay with 10 strikeouts in 13 innings and only two walks. He’s an above average pitcher who gets to face the second worst offense in the majors. The Padres are just awful, striking out 26% of the time against righties this season with a .288 wOBA in that split. This is the perfect spot to buy Gausman. He’s coming incredibly cheap on FanDuel and easily within the range of value on DraftKings. The biggest piece working in his favor is the -230 home favorite line, boosting the win expectation above any other pitcher on the slate. Of course, wins are binary so that needs to be taken with a grain of salt but at these prices it easily vaults him above other...
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 8/13/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/13/18 Monday's MLB action brings us aces facing off against each other in an interesting slate of baseball. When there a fair amount of decent arms on a smaller slate of games, we get some greatly reduced options on offense. But let's not get bogged down in the details here. Let's get to the picks. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Luis Severino FD 10300 DK 11800 Opponent - NYM (Jacob deGrom) Park - NYY FD - 40.78 DK - 22.23 We have some interesting decisions to make at pitcher for Monday. The (arguably) two best pitchers on the slate are taking on the (arguably) third and fourth best pitchers respectively. Severino is one of those cases, facing up against Jacob deGrom and the Mets. Severino had something of a bounce-back start in his last game, striking out eight through seven innings against the White Sox. He allowed three earned runs on seven hits, but didn’t surrender a walk. This is an even better matchup against the lowly Mets who rank 24th in wOBA against righties this season and are trotting out a demonstrably weaker lineup in the short term. Severino went through a rough patch but still owns a 10 K/9 rate and 3.20 xFIP. The -165 money line puts him up there with among the best win expectations on Monday and the Mets come in at 3.02 implied runs, the second-lowest on the slate. I think Severino, coming a bit cheaper than Kershaw on FanDuel is the play there. But on DraftKings I’ll likely go with the latter. Clayton Kershaw FD 10800 DK 10000 Opponent - SF (Madison Bumgarner) Park - LAD FD - 42.49 DK - 23.83 I mentioned Kershaw in the previous writeup mostly to highlight just how close these two guys are on the Monday slate. My concern around Kershaw basically comes down to one thing: pitch count. He’s reached 101 pitches only once in his last three games despite some pretty damn efficient pitching. Sure, the K’s weren’t there against the A’s last game, but over his last three games he owns a 8:1 K:BB ratio and only three earned runs in his last 19.2 innings. Despite facing off Bumgarner, Kershaw is still a slate-best -200 home favorite. The Giants are a bottom-third team against lefties this season despite bringing...
DFS MLB Podcast for Tuesday 8/10/18 – FanDuel and DraftKings
DFSR's Daily Fantasy MLB Podcast for FanDuel & DraftKings Friday 8/10/18 It's a Friday evening full of MLB action and the DFSR crew of Doug Norrie and James Davis have you covered with a podcast breaking down plays for FanDuel and DraftKings. They discuss how there's a wealth of solid arms on the slate, making some of the hitting choices a little tougher. For cash game pitchers they look at Gerrit Cole, Shane Bieber, Zach Eflin and Nathan Eovaldi. But do hat tip to some other arms as well who might have some GPP upside. For stacks and cash game hitters, Giancarlo Stanton against a weaker lefty in Yankee Stadium looks like the clear pay option. They break down the Yankees, Twins, Indians and more. Be sure to subscribe...