Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 8/27/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/27/18 We have a very small Monday MLB slate that surprisingly has a handful of very solid pitching options. That could make the decisions a little closer than usual considering just how few bats we can realistically target in cash games. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Gerrit Cole FD 10800 DK 12000 Opponent - OAK (Brett Anderson) Park - HOU FD - 42.08 DK - 22.78 Cole just keeps on trucking through 2018, mowing down batters at a near-league high clip (12.35/ 9) and the short term hasn’t been much different. In his last two games, he has 19 strikeouts in 11 innings and ranks among the league leaders in starting pitcher WAR. As we’ve said more than a few times this season, the biggest change for Cole is in his overall approach and pitching profile. He’s ditched the sinker and is now basically a fastball, slider, curveball guy. The results are, well, impressive. He doesn’t get a great matchup on Monday against the A’s who rank in the top ten in wOBA against righties this season. But Cole is still underpriced relative to his peripherals and the A’s do strike out 22% of the time in this split. He’s a solid -171 home favorite, the second-biggest money line of the day. With some other good starting pitchers going on such a short slate, I do think we see lower ownership on Cole. Masahiro Tanaka FD 10200 DK 9500 Opponent - CHW (Carlos Rodon) Park - NYY FD - 39.16 DK - 21.32 Speaking of the highest money line of the day, that comes to you thanks to one Mr. Masahiro Tanaka who opens as a -200 home favorite against the White Sox. Chicago, well, stinks. They strike out 26% of the time against righties this season and really struggle to get anything going at the bottom of the order. Tanaka strikes out more than a batter an inning on the season and keeps the walks in check, only allowing two free passes per nine. The park doesn’t do him any favors here, with Yankee Stadium playing great for lefty power. Luckily, Chicago isn’t deep in that department and considering the price here, especially on DraftKings, you are looking at Tanaka as a cash play. I think I prefer Cole’s strikeout upside for the same...
DFS MLB Podcast for Friday 8/24/18 – FanDuel and DraftKings
DFS MLB Podcast for Friday 8/24/18 - FanDuel and DraftKings DFSR’s Doug Norrie and James Davis are back for the MLB podcast talking a full slate of Friday MLB action for DraftKings and FanDuel. After a short afternoon slate with a ton of pitchers on Thursday, Friday doesn’t look as strong with the guys taking the bump. They break down Mike Foltynewicz against the Marlins, Mike Clevinger against the Royals and Rich Hill facing off with the Padres. Those three guys offer a bunch of upside considering their peripherals and matchups. They also take a look at Gio Gonzalez’s season and whether he’s worth a look against the Mets. As for the offenses, there’s a game in Coors but the implied run line might not support some of the prices on bats. Instead, it could be time to pick on weaker arms like Brad Keller, Alex Cobb, Jason Vargas and Dan Straily. All of this and more on a full Friday MLB podcast for FanDuel and DraftKings. Be sure to subscribe...
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 8/23/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/23/18 It's a very small Thursday in baseball, but that doesn't mean there aren't some close decisions out there. The early slate has a glut of pitching plus a Coors' game, making for some very interesting decisions. And then the evening slate looks, well, not as interesting. So it goes in the world of MLB grinding. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Early Max Scherzer FD 12200 DK 11500 Opponent - PHI (Aaron Nola) Park - WSH FD - 46.42 DK - 26.1 Man, what an early slate of pitching. There are only four games, and they include Scherzer vs. Nola and deGrom vs. Bumgarner. Plus there’s even David Price hanging out there. It’s something of a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, we’d always rather choose between a group of good pitchers. On the other, these aces (for lack of a better term in grouping them all together) do cut into each other a bit because they’re either facing off against each other or have tough matchups. For the sake of ease, let’s just roll the highest projected guy and very best arm of the group. It’s not a cop-out, seeing as how Scherzer is just still head and shoulders above almost any other pitcher in the game at this point. He has the fourth-highest WAR in the majors to go with a 12.06 K/9. With him, you get the best of all worlds because he strikes out a lot of batters and also runs a super low BABIP because of the higher flyball rate. The Phillies made some trade deadline moves to bolster their offense (Asdrubal and Bour) but still rank in the lower third of the league against righties. They are marginally improved, but not dramatically so. I’ll take Max as a -158 home favorite and the Phillies come in with a low 3.1 implied run line. Madison Bumgarner FD 9000 DK 7500 Opponent - NYM (Jacob deGrom) Park - NYM FD - 34.68 DK - 18.27 This one is a tougher sell considering the other arms on this slate. But he’s here because of price, especially on DraftKings. There are definite warning signs with Bumgarner’s output this season, combined with some time spent on the DL to start the year. I’m a little worried considering the K rate has dropped...
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 8/22/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/22/18 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Early Freddy Peralta FD 7900 DK 7500 Opponent - CIN (Robert Stephenson) Park - MIL FD - 38.85 DK - 19.91 Peralta enters Wednesday as the second-biggest money line favorite at -225 (Colorado is -230) and it makes a lot of sense. The Reds’ lineup gets a huge downgrade losing Votto to the DL. They were right around average against righties on the season with him and get markedly worse without their best hitter in the lineup. Peralta has big-time K upside, striking out more than 11 batters per nine on the season. His issue is the walks where he’s allowing free passes 14% of the time. That’s something less of a concern against this Reds’ order who don’t have a ton of patience. On the season, the walks have knocked down Peralta’s innings per game, and cause a bunch of volatility in his starts (his game log reads something like every other game he goes quality innings). He’s cheap on both sites and our projection system loves the money line odds and matchup. Strongly consider Kyle Gibson against the White Sox. Main Noah Syndergaard FD 9800 DK 10200 Opponent - SF (Casey Kelly) Park - NYM FD - 39.2 DK - 21.95 It says a lot about the opponent when the Mets, 54-70 record, are -160 home favorites to start a day. But that’s the case with the pitching discrepancy in this game between Syndergaard and Casey Kelly. The pitching hasn’t been the issue for New York this season considering they have this bad a record with -44 run differential despite scoring the 12th most runs in the NL. Thor is putting together another excellent season despite spending some time on the DL. The 5:1 K:BB ratio is elite and he’s shown laser control with less than two walks per nine. The Giants are among the worst offenses in baseball this season, ranked 26th in the league against righty pitching while striking out 24% of the time in that split. Zack Wheeler manhandled them two nights ago and Thor is set up for success on Wednesday as well. Lance Lynn FD 7500 DK 8000 Opponent - MIA (Trevor Richards) Park - MIA FD - 34.91 DK - 17.45 I was a little concerned with Lynn’s pitch count in his...
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 8/20/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/20/18 If you aren't suffering from too bad of a Monday hangover, with the weekend blowing your doors off only to realize the cruel reality of the beginning of a new week, then come on and get excited for a baseball slate with a little something for everyone. We have an ace-level arm, some other value pitchers and a whole host of bats facing off against bums. Monday baby! Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Gerrit Cole FD 10600 DK 13300 Opponent - SEA (Felix Hernandez) Park - SEA FD - 39.78 DK - 21.23 I say this literally every day the guy takes to the mound, but Cole is still criminally underpriced on FanDuel. That he’s not even over $11K for a guy with a 12.34 K/9 rate, 2.96 xFIP (an even better 2.71 ERA), 11 wins and 4.4:1 K:BB ratio. He’s just one of the best pitchers going this season and I don’t think you need to go crazy overthinking it on FanDuel on a shorter slate. On DraftKings it’s a little closer where he is very expensive. I still think he’s in play there considering the state of pitching on this slate. He comes in as a solid -165 road favorite against the Mariners, a below-average team against righty pitching even if they do strike out less than league average in the split (20%). Again, there are few quality pitching options going on Monday which does make Cole stand out even more. Jose Berrios FD 9600 DK 10000 Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - MIN FD - 36.47 DK - 19.25 If you think Cole is just too expensive on DraftKings, then pivoting down to Berrios for about $3K cheaper is a fine move. The latter doesn’t have quite the strikeout upside as Cole, but the matchup helps get things a little closer. The White Sox strike out the most in the league against righties this season (26%) and rank 24th in wOBA against that split. The Twins are a -155 home favorite, but the White Sox do come in at 4.2 implied runs (Mariners 3.5). Berrios brings in a 25% K rate and 3.6:1 K:BB ratio. the 3.85 xFIP is above average and while not an ace, he certainly does strike me as a relatively safe option on this slate of...