DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 6/20/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 6/20/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu FD - P 8500 DK - SP 8900 Opponent - BAL (Matt Harvey) Park - BALFD - 32.99 DK - 17.25 The strikeout stuff isn’t anything to write home about for the lefty Ryu, especially considering what some other starting pitchers have done with that stat this season. But he still has very good control and a 4:1 K:BB ratio. His solid 3.79 xFIP is thanks to a nearly 50% groundball rate, a big reason he’s able to keep the runs down and the ball in the park. The Orioles are below-average offense on the season and strike out around 24% of the time. This is a rough main slate for starting pitching with very little in the way of ace-level talent taking the mound. Ryu looks like a solid option. Taijuan Walker FD - P 9400 DK - SP 9400 Opponent - WSH (Patrick Corbin) Park - WSHFD - 31.35 DK - 16.09 Walker’s been a nice surprise for the Mets this season, posting a 2.12 ERA and striking out more then 9.5 batters per nine control still isn’t perfect and the 3.58 xFIP points to plenty of good luck on his side. Some of that has come in the form of a lower .246 BABIP which is likely set to come up over the course of the rest of the season. He’s a slight, -132 favorite on the road against the Nationals but the run line at eight is one of the lowest on the board. The story here is that the pitching on the afternoon slate is just pretty bad so we need to take what we can get. Consider Nathan Eovaldi (FD $8900 DK $8300) against the Royals Catcher/First Base Yuli Gurriel FD - 1B 3000 DK - 1B 4400 Opponent - CHW (Dallas Keuchel) Park - HOUFD - 12.23 DK - 9.38 Gurriel is having a great season at the plate with an OPS sitting right around .900 thanks to a lot of patience and some power as well. He’s walking (11%) more than he’s striking out (9%) and has 10 home runs on the season. That all lines up great facing Dallas Keuchel who’s peripherals are abysmal striking out only 5.26 batters per nine. Sure, he generates a lot of groundballs still, but the xFIP is in the 4’s. This is a good spot for the Astros. After Gurriel, the options are pretty...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 6/14/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 6/14/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Tyler Glasnow FD - P 10800 DK - SP 10700 Opponent - CHW (Lance Lynn) Park - CHW FD - 42.14 DK - 24.01 Lance Lynn FD - P 11000 DK - SP 9900 Opponent - TB (Tyler Glasnow) Park - CHW FD - 33.46 DK - 17.7 We have the grim misfortune of having the two aces on the slate A) squaring off with each other and B) facing off against good opposing offenses. The White Sox and Rays have the fourth and thirteenth best offenses in the Majors, respectively, and the Rays are slight -135 favorites in this one. Glasnow is a better pitcher than Lynn, but the White Sox are a decidedly tougher match-up as well. Still, these two are in a league of their own today, and your first stop for cash game options. Our system leans Glasnow, even as a slight underdog. Adam Wainwright FD - P 8000 DK - SP 8800 Opponent - MIA (Braxton Garrett) Park - STL FD - 32.87 DK - 16.54 If you find yourself unable to pull the trigger on a top-tier guy, you find yourself without the money for both on DraftKings, consider Adam Wainwright. The aging Cardinal has his best xFIP since 2015 on the back of a reasonable K rate and a 2.32 BB/9. For DFS purposes he's also attractive because he's averaging better than 6 innings a start in 2021. The match-up is excellent as well, with the Marlins ranking in the top 5 in strikeout percentage and the bottom 5 in wOBA. Also considered: Alex Wood. Catcher/First Base Paul Goldschmidt FD - 1B 3100 DK - 1B 4000 Opponent - MIA (Braxton Garrett) Park - STL FD - 12.75 DK - 9.59 We'll start our position players with the aging Goldschmidt, who is undoubtedly having the worst season of his career. While it's generally exciting to run hitters during their decline phase, I think we have reason to take a risk here. Goldschmidt's BABIP is .050 points below his career levels, and while some of the power is gone, he's still got pop. Then there's the match-up. Braxton Garrett has been flat out terrible in his 20 or so Major League innings, with a walk rate in the mid 5s per 9. With the platoon advantage in his favor, Goldschmidt should farm him here. C.J. Cron FD - 1B 2900 DK - 1B...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 6/13/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 6/13/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Shane Bieber FD - P 12000 DK - SP 11000 Opponent - SEA (Logan Gilbert) Park - CLEFD - 44.53 DK - 25.46 Bieber continues to be one of the most dominant starting pitchers in baseball, dialing up the strikeouts with the best of them. He’s putting down almost 13 batters per nine this season, which amazingly is a dip from his numbers last season. But the xFIP still sits under 3.00 and he still induces ground ball at a 46% rate. He’s just an elite arm and on Sunday face a Mariners team as a -228 home favorite with 7.5 over/under. This is the spot to pay up for him in cash and he’s the safest arm on the slate. Carlos Rodón FD - P 10500 DK - SP 10200 Opponent - DET (Undecided) Park - DETFD - 35.68 DK - 19.48 Rodin has sure turned things around this season, showing much more of the high upside promise many had dreamed about earlier in his career. This is shaping up to be, by far, his best year thanks to increased velocity on his fastball which he’s throwing more often and ditching the sinker he’d been using for years. It’s paying off. He’s striking out batters at a 37% clip and the 2.73 xFIP is just slightly behind the 1.96 ERA. On Sunday he’ll face off against a weaker Tigers’ lineup in a smash spot for the lefty. Catcher/First Base Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD - 1B 4300 DK - 1B 5000 Opponent - BOS (Martin Perez) Park - BOSFD - 13.03 DK - 9.89 This game between the Red Sox and the Blue Jays has the highest implied run line to open the slate with an over/under of 10. Guerrero is having an MVP-type season so far with an OPS around 1.100 thanks to tremendous power with 19 home runs already and an elite 15% K rate. He’s quickly become one of the very best hitters in the league and faces off against the lefty Perez in this matchup. His OPS is lower against lefties for his career, but a lot of that is BABIP driven. This is a smash spot for Vlad. Josh Bell FD - 1B 2500 DK - 1B 4200 Opponent - SF (Johnny Cueto) Park - WSHFD - 12.88 DK - 9.62 Bell wasn’t in the lineup on Saturday against the lefty, but should be back...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 6/12/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 6/12/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Afternoon Corbin Burnes FD - P 12000 DK - RP 10500 Opponent - PIT (Chad Kuhl) Park - MILFD - 44.56 DK - 24.42 Burnes has been stupid good this season with numbers that are truly eye-popping even for the strikeout age of baseball. Through his first 59 innings and change, he’s struck out 42% of the haters he’s faced for a 14 K/9 rate. It’s led to a 1.71 xFIP and 0.97 FIP. These are cheat-code level stats for a starting pitcher and he’s just been fully dominating. On Saturday afternoon he’ll face off against a very weak Pirates team and is opening as a -270 home favorite. Even at the high prices, this is just a very tough fade based on what he’s done this season. Joe Musgrove (FD $8300 DK $9300) is a great play against the Mets. The FanDuel price is a total steal for what he’s been doing this season. Evening Trevor Bauer FD - P 11000 DK - SP 9800 Opponent - TEX (Kolby Allard) Park - LADFD - 51.69 DK - 28.73 Bauer is a monster favorite for the evening slate of games, with the Dodgers opening at -290 at home against the Rangers. Bauer isn’t as good as the 2.40 ERA would suggest, but the xFIP is only trailing by a little more than a run this season. He’s struck out more than 11 batters per nine and has the walk rate under his career average. The Rangers rank 28th in terms of team offense on the season and are striking out 26% of the time as a team. This is a smash spot for Bauer and he’ll likely be the chalk pitcher for the evening. Catcher/First Base Afternoon Freddie Freeman FD - 1B 3400 DK - 1B 5200 Opponent - MIA (Undecided) Park - MIAFD - 14.63 DK - 10.95 The Marlins haven’t announced their starter for Saturday and that’s going to have the Braves in a good spot for this game. While there isn’t an early line on the game, we can assume Atlanta is the clear favorite. Freeman’s OPS is down a bit this season compared to years past, but he’s still tough to K at only 18%, takes a ton of walks, and is running so bad on batted ball stuff with a BABIP over 100 points lower than his career average. He’s coming at a deal because...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 5/30/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 5/30/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Lucas Giolito FD - P 10000 DK - SP 9600 Opponent - BAL (Keegan Akin) Park - CHWFD - 42.99 DK - 23.45 Giolito enters as the biggest money line favorite on the main slate at -235 against the Orioles. He has big strikeout upside in this matchup against a bottom-third offense in baseball right now. Giolito struggled with one bad start this season when he allowed 8 runs in one inning against the Red Sox. Back that single game out and his numbers are pretty elite this season. He’d have a 2.78 ERA and is still striking out almost 11 batters per nine. Max Scherzer FD - P 12000 DK - SP 10800 Opponent - MIL (Brandon Woodruff) Park - WSHFD - 39.39 DK - 22.09 Scherzer just keeps going out there and dominating year after year. And this season is no different. In line with previous seasons, he’s striking out more than 12 batters per nine, but this year has even more control than last and is walking fewer than two batters per nine. His 3.06 xFIP is about three-quarters a run higher than the 2.27 ERA, but this is still a guy with some of the best stuff in the majors. He’ll face a Brewers team that is getting Yelich back, but has still been very weak this season, ranking third-to-last in team wOBA. Yelich will help, but this lineup is still mostly bad. Eduardo Rodriguez FD - P 7500 DK - SP 8500 Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - BOSFD - 34.35 DK - 18.01 Eduardo Rodriguez is having the best season of his career, finally putting together his stuff with the ability to locate his pitchers more consistently as well. And sure, you are going to look at the 5.06 ERA and think “best season?!?” and I would say “yes!”. He’s struggled with a .368 BABIP and a 70% LOB%, both of which are the worst of his career. The 5:1 K:BB rate is the best control he’s ever had and this Miami team is ranked 25th in team offense this season. I love spotting E-Rod here in a good matchup with a little run bad at his heels. Catcher/First Base Carlos Santana FD - 1B 3300 DK - 1B 4100 Opponent - MIN (Matt Shoemaker) Park - MINFD - 10.71 DK - 7.97 He’s the first Royals guy we have on the list,...