Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/4/18 Happy July 4th all you freedom lovers! For the holiday, MLB has scheduled a full day’s worth of games starting in the early afternoon and spreading out to the evening. We'll concentrate on the later afternoon (4PM EST) slate of games, as well as the main slate for the evening. All in all, it should make for a great holiday. So fire up the BBQ, get out the fireworks and read your friends and family these picks out loud as entertainment. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Afternoon Aaron Nola FD 10100 DK 13100 Opponent - BAL (David Hess) Park - PHI FD - 35.56 DK - 19.04 I do think the DraftKings price is a little out of bounds considering we haven’t seen a return to the K per inning guy we saw last season. It’s tough to roster a $13K pitcher if the strikeouts aren’t off the charts. But for the early slate, his sub-$10K FanDuel price likely makes him the safest cash game pitcher going early. It helps that we move the Orioles into a National League park. This is an offense ranked 26th in the league against right-handed pitching and they strike out 25% of the time in the split. As of this writing, there was no early line on the game though I suspect Nola comes in as something like a -140 favorite (or more) considering the lack of line was based on an Oriole pitcher making a spot start. Honestly, I did expect to see a little more growth from Nola this season, but he’s still an upper tier arm with solid strikeout stuff. Jose Quintana FD 7200 DK 7900 Opponent - DET (Francisco Liriano) Park - CHC FD - 32.79 DK - 17.15 This one doesn’t feel great, but the pitching strength definitely lies more on the evening slate of games. On the one hand, Quintana is a massive -230 home favorite (no over/under as we wait on the Wrigley Field wind directions) against the Tigers. Detroit is in the upper third of the league against lefty pitching this season with a low strikeout rate. What’s helping Quintana here is the low price and the win expectation. He’s really struggled at times in 2018 with a troublesome uptick in walks and a decrease in strikeouts. But what we...

DFS MLB Podcast for Tuesday 7/3/18 - FanDuel and DraftKings The DFSR crew of James Davis and Doug Norrie returns to the podcast after a week hiatus to discuss the Tuesday slate of MLB action for FanDuel and DraftKings. They kick things off looking at some of the pitchers going today and looking at whether Clayton Kershaw is still in the conversation for best arms in the game. They also look at a pivot to Zack Greinke and where guys like Domingo German, Shane Bieber and Andrew Heaney stack up as cash games options. Of course, there’s a game in Coors to deal with considering two below average arms take the mound there. But they also look at the Reds against Lucas Giolito and the Astros facing Austin-Bibens-Dirkx. Be sure to subscribe...

Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/2/18 Monday in the Majors brings us a shorter slate of baseball action that's still packed with interesting decisions. We have legit aces in Corey Kluber and Max Scherzer taking the mound. But there's also a game in Coors and a James Shields' siting. All of this and much more to start your week off right on FanDuel and DraftKings. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Corey Kluber FD 11200 DK 12500 Opponent - KC (Jake Junis) Park - KC FD - 41.74 DK - 22.93 Between the two big money guys, Scherzer and Kluber, I think we can lean the latter for Monday. It’s always tough to fade the incredible peripherals we get from Scherzer, but he’s walking into a matchup against the Red Sox who come in as the very best team in baseball against righty pitching on the season. Instead, Kluber gets to face the Royals who don’t strike out very much (18% of the time against righties) but rank second to last in overall offensive production in that split. Kluber isn’t putting up the same strikeout numbers he did in 2017, dipping from a 34% K rate last season to 27% this year. But he’s so damn efficient. On the season, he owns a 9:1 K:BB ratio and averages more than 6.5 innings per start. Essentially, he’s making up for the reduced K’s by just recording more overall outs. He’s a massive -275 road favorite against the Royals which means he is also making up some ground on Scherzer because of the win expectation points. It’s close between these two aces because of the contextual factors, but I’ll lean slightly in favor of Kluber here and just a little cheaper. Domingo German FD 7800 DK 8500 Opponent - ATL (Anibal Sanchez) Park - NYY FD - 35.11 DK - 18.89 After a three-game stretch two weeks ago in which German averaged more than six innings per start, striking out 28 batters in 19 innings and looking pretty damn dominant, he hit a snag against the Rays (six runs in three innings) and then had his spot in the rotation skipped in favor of a relief performance on June 27th. He’ll move back into the starter role for Monday and comes in at a healthy -190 favorite against the Braves. It’s not an...

Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/30/18 Man, I love MLB Saturdays. Games start early and I get an extra excuse to ignore the wife and kids in favor of watching some ace-level pitchers and offenses against below average arms. Everything seems to be breaking right for this Saturday except of course my family's ability to hang out with their rock (me). Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Afternoon Justin Verlander FD 12200 DK 13400 Opponent - TB (Matt Andriese) Park - TB FD - 38.32 DK - 20.88 Verlander was roughed up for his worst outing of the season last game against the Blue Jays on the 25th, allowing four earned runs in 6.6 innings with *only* six K’s. He’s still putting up career highs in strikeouts at a 31% rate with a career low in walks (1.82 per nine). I’m not buying the 1.82 ERA with the 3.57 xFIP coming in way behind it because he’s still somewhat living off of a .223 BABIP against and an 88% strand rate. What this means is that while he’s definitely an ace, he’s priced like a Scherzer type when the reality is something a tier below. That leaves us in a tricky spot because while you’d love to roster him in cash, you are overpaying some for the services. The Rays are a bottom-third offense on the season and strike out 23% of the time against righties. There’s no early line on the Astros, but I suspect Verlander comes in around where Cole hovered last night at -170-180. That’s fine on the win expectation but again, you are paying a premium. Jacob deGrom FD 11700 DK 13600 Opponent - MIA (Pablo Lopez) Park - MIA FD - 36.66 DK - 20.04 deGrom’s start getting pushed back to Saturday helps to go a long way towards some issues on the day. Namely, that starting pitcher completely sucks after Verlander for basically the entire day. He's right in line with the latter on both sites for the late afternoon slate of games considering his matchup, stats and the rest of the starting pitcher player pool. deGrom continues another season-over-season improvement with a 31% strikeout rate (career 27%) and still keeps the walks in check. He’s working with a career-low 2.60 xFIP which is running behind a 1.69 ERA. His issue is, of course, the...

Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/29/18 We've got some big time Friday MLB action with some peaking starters taking the mound, other complete gas cans and a whole slew of offenses in solid spots across the league. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Gerrit Cole FD 11500 DK 13000 Opponent - TB (Wilmer Font) Park - TB FD - 46.73 DK - 25.24 After starting the season in, basically, a lights-out fashion, Cole has moderately cooled off over the last three games. Whether it was the four earned runs in the games against the A’s and the Rays, the paltry five innings against the Royals, or the 10 walks in his last 18 innings he hasn’t really hit value at these prices in his last few outings. But there are still signs we are buying at a fine price on Cole. He struck out eight Royals while only allowing one earned run in his last outing. And the season-long strikeout numbers are among the best in the league. This is still an ace-level pitcher we are talking about, against one of the light-hitting offenses in baseball. The Rays come in with less than three implied runs (2.94 at open) and the ballpark really helps Cole as it limits power all around. I still think he’s something of a deal even on a bigger slate of games, though I suppose the last few outings at least have me a little wary. Trevor Bauer FD 12000 DK 13300 Opponent - OAK (Paul Blackburn) Park - OAK FD - 44.81 DK - 24.22 He and Cole’s starting pitcher schedules have lined up in lockstep over the last couple of weeks so it always seems like we are going back and forth between to the two when making lineups. Bauer’s been every bit an ace this season, continuing a career arc that’s seen steady (remarkable) gains over the last three seasons. He’s now striking out 32% of batters (career 24% average) with a career-low 3.03 xFIP. The big change over the last couple of years has been the steadier reliance on the curveball, leading to a dramatic increase in his O-Swing% (per FanGraphs). He’s not quite as high a favorite as Cole (-165) and the A’s come in with a higher implied run line (3.46) but he’s still about as strong a cash game option...