Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 8/6/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/6/18 Monday's MLB action brings us ten games on the schedule with some top-tier arms like Trevor Bauer and Noah Syndergaard taking the bump. But there are plenty (almost too many) gas cans getting starts as well, putting a bunch of teams in super spots on offense. Let's take a look at how things break down on Monday for FanDuel and DraftKings. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Trevor Bauer FD 11500 DK 12300 Opponent - MIN (Kyle Gibson) Park - CLE FD - 45.94 DK - 24.89 With Chris Sale landing on the DL this past week, Bauer could make a real late push for the AL Cy Young Award. He’ll make a strong case with the second-highest WAR among AL pitchers and a 31% strikeout rate that ranks among the best in the bigs. This season continues year-over-year improvement for Bauer with a fantastic 3.20 xFIP and career-best strikeout numbers. The Twins traded away some of their top-of-the-order bats in Escobar and Dozier at the trade deadline and are now mixing and matching lineups. Outside of Miguel Sano, they aren’t a team that strikes out at an overwhelming rate, but it’s still a plus matchup for Bauer. He’s a -190 opening favorite, the third-best win expectation of the slate. He's expensive for a reason but the strikeout numbers do like they are going to stick and you have to pay top dollar for elite pitchers. Bauer is, for sure, that type of arm now. Noah Syndergaard FD 9400 DK 9600 Opponent - CIN (Homer Bailey) Park - NYM FD - 39.53 DK - 22.04 Syndergaard has been on and off the DL this season with a bout of sickness the last time and a finger issue earlier in the season. He did go 91 pitches in his last start, and the assumption is he will up it to a full workload in this one. For his skill set and peripherals, he’s much too cheap on both sites, but especially on DraftKings where you might even be able to pair him with Bauer. In his 82 innings this season he has a 5.4:1 K:BB ratio with a 39% strikeout rate. Those numbers are of course pushing into the elite category and he’s worth a play even against a decent Reds' offense. The Mets come in at...
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 8/3/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/3/18 We've got a big, ole Friday in baseball with a ton of evening action. There are some elite arms like deGrom, Severino, and Verlander taking the mound as well as offenses in great spots against weaker arms. Let's dive in to some of the slate's value plays. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Patrick Corbin FD 9800 DK 10400 Opponent - SF (Chris Stratton) Park - ARI FD - 40.77 DK - 21.58 Corbin’s coming off a rough start against the Padres on Saturday night allowing four earned runs in six innings. Things started fine, but he just couldn’t leave runners stranded. That being said, the guys still struck out eight batters in those six innings and the jump in K’s he’s experienced this season for sure looks like the real deal. He’s gotten away from the fastball some, added in a curveball (out of nowhere) and is now up to a career-high 31% K% (previous high, 22%). He’s also cut the walks down to 2.5 per nine, helping him to a career-best 2.69 xFIP. These new numbers look like they’ll stick for Corbin and on Friday he gets a rather punchless Giants’ squad ranked in the bottom third of the league against lefty pitching. Arizona opens as a -191 home favorite, the best odds on the slate. And Corbin is priced considerably less than some of the other ace-level arms on the slate. I suspect he goes under-owned again even with the 2018 gains. Jacob deGrom FD 11500 DK 12400 Opponent - ATL (Anibal Sanchez) Park - NYM FD - 41.25 DK - 22.57 You aren’t going to see the Mets as favorites a whole lot, but when deGrom is on the mound they’ve got their best chances for the win. He’s been fantastic this season with a career-best 2.83 xFIP thanks to a 30% K rate and 5:1 K:BB ratio. The only thing holding him back is the lack of wins which is more a Mets’ issue than a deGrom one specifically. From a points-per-dollar perspective, I’d much rather play Corbin on FanDuel, but among the top salary tier, deGrom seems a cut above Justin Verlander. The former has the -142 money line in his favor and a better matchup against the Braves (Verlander faces the Dodgers on the road). Sure, the Mets...
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/30/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/30/18 Monday's MLB action is limited to just nine games with some of the better pitchers on the slate facing each other. That could make for some interesting decisions considering it's a smaller player pool and we might have to roster bats against above average arms. But there's still plenty of value out there to dissect. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Gerrit Cole FD 11100 DK 12800 Opponent - SEA (James Paxton) Park - SEA FD - 40.51 DK - 21.61 This is one of the very few games you aren’t going to get Cole as an overwhelming favorite and that’s because he’s pitching on the road against James Paxton. Really only ace-versus-ace matchups will keep Cole’s money line win expectation down. Everything else lines up in his favor. He moves into Safeco which plays below average in terms of power. He’s also just lighting the world on fire with the strikeout stuff since coming over from the Pirates. The 35.3% K rate is among the best in the league and he has 28 strikeouts in his last 18 innings (including a game in Coors). The new stuff is for real and he has the most K upside of any pitcher on this slate. There’s not a lot in the Mariners’ lineup that scares you and they are below average against righty arms this season. Kenta Maeda FD 9100 DK 10100 Opponent - MIL (Freddy Peralta) Park - LAD FD - 35.3 DK - 18.9 The concern with any Dodgers’ starter is just how long Dave Roberts will let the guy stay in the game. Maeda went 94 pitches in his last start, and you can basically forget about these guys reaching 100. But he’s been so good on the mound this season that you basically have to consider him even at fewer pitches than some of his workhorse counterparts. Maeda’s 29.4% K rate is the best of his career and he’s pitching with a 3.6:1 K:BB rate. The Brewers are an average offense against righty pitching this season, though they did add Mike Moustakas to the middle of that order. They are likely to improve at least some over the remainder of the season. But, as a team, they strike out 25% of the time in this split. Maeda is a solid -160 opening...
DFSR’s Daily Fantasy MLB Podcast for FanDuel & DraftKings Friday 7/27/18
DFSR's Daily Fantasy MLB Podcast for FanDuel & DraftKings Friday 7/27/18 DFSR’s Doug Norrie and James Davis take to the podcast to discuss a big Friday in baseball. There’s a ton to break down with a ton of good pitching and some bats in great spots as well. They start off the podcast discussing the pitching decision between Max Scherzer and Chris Sale. The latter has been clearly the better arm this season, but Scherzer has a fantastic matchup against Miami in a pitcher’s park. Ultimately, Scherzer is cheaper on FanDuel and vice versa on DraftKings. It makes for an interesting hedge possibility. They also look at guys like Chris Archer, Zack Greinke, Ivan Nova and more. For stacks, there’s the game in Coors with a huge run line, the Yankees now without Aaron Judge and some Pirates coming cheap against Jason Vargas. All of this and more on a full MLB podcast for FanDuel and DraftKings. Be sure to subscribe...
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/27/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/27/18 Tonight's baseball slate has a little something for everyone. We've got two of the best pitchers in the game with Max Scherzer and Chris Sale taking the mound. Plus there's a game in Coors with the righty-heavy Rockies led by Nolan Arenado facing a lefty in Sean Manaea. It's going to get interesting. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Max Scherzer FD 11500 DK 13900 Opponent - MIA (Pablo Lopez) Park - MIA FD - 48.85 DK - 27.51 There will be some debate between Scherzer and Sale for Friday’s matchup, but I’m taking a firm stand in Mad Max’s corner early on FanDuel. From a statistical perspective, Sale has the advantage over Scherzer with a better strikeout rate and lower xFIP. But the matchup for Scherzer overcomes those differences. Despite some recent offensive gains, Miami still ranks 25th in the league against righty pitching with a .303 team wOBA in that split. Scherzer also gets to throw in a clear pitchers’ park in Miami and on FanDuel is coming just a bit cheaper than Sale. Look, it’s close. But the savings you get on Scherzer on FanDuel ($1300 cheaper) makes all the difference. On DraftKings, go Sale for $400 less and take the hedge that way. Chris Archer FD 9000 DK 9500 Opponent - BAL (Andrew Cashner) Park - BAL FD - 33.22 DK - 17.83 Archer was a strikeout machine in his first start back from the All-Star Break, K-ing 13 batters in six innings against the Marlins without surrendering a walk. He did allow three earned runs, but the K’s more than made up for it. On Friday, he’ll get an Orioles team ranked 27th in wOBA against righties this season and that includes time with Manny Machado who’s now exited stage Los Angeles. They are a dramatically worse lineup and already struck out 25% of the time against righties. Archer worked his way back from the disabled list but seemed at full strength in his last start throwing 101 pitches. The walks are still something of an *issue* and K% is down from the last three seasons. But I’m not overly concerned and at these prices, he makes for an interesting GPP pivot off of the two big guys. Marcus Stroman FD 8000 DK 7300 Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park...