MLB Betting Preview - Bullish on the New-Look Cincinnati Reds Welcome to our MLB preseason series in which we'll highlight some season-long win/loss prop bets on a number of different teams. With Opening Day breathing down our neck (less than a month away. Look for these coming out over the course of the next few weeks, with 6-8 teams highlighted as potentially strong bets on projected win totals going into the season. We'll start with the Reds who put together plenty of offseason moves. Cincinnati Reds 2018 Record: 67-95 2018 Pythagorean Record: 69-93 2019 Over/Under Wins: 77.5 Key Additions Alex Wood Sonny Gray Yasiel Puig Matt Kemp Key Losses No one really, but I guess: Homer Bailey Matt Harvey Projected Lineup Jesse Winker - OF Jose Peraza - SS Joey Votto - 1B Eugenio Suarez - 3B Scooter Gennett - 2B Matt Kemp / Scott Schebler - OF Yasiel Puig - OF Tucker Barnhart - C Projected Starting Rotation Alex Wood Luis Castillo Sonny Gray Tanner Roark Anthony DeSclafani Perhaps no other team has addressed their core weakness quite like the Reds. Last season, the pitching staff was an unmitigated disaster with one of the worst team ERAs in the game. That is to be expected with a pitching staff whose games-started leaders were Luis Castillo, Sal Romano, Matt Harvey, Tyler Mahle, Anthony DeSclafani and Homer Bailey. Only Castillo (easily the best of the bunch) and DeSclafani remain in the projected rotation. They are now joined by Alex Wood, Sonny Gray and Tanner Roark. No other team sees this kind of overhaul/ upgrade. In fact, the Reds jettisoned 518 IP (Harvey, Romano, Mahle and Bailey) of 2.0 WAR and get back 461 IP (Wood, Gray, Roark) of 6.2 WAR. That is just such a massive upgrade (and likely even better considering some of Harvey’s innings were on the Mets. Wood hasn’t had an xFIP over 3.90 for the last five seasons and brings a 49% groundball rate to a park that can get out of hand with the power numbers. He should have a longer leash as well, moving away from a Dodgers’ organization that was extremely cautious with its starters. Similarly, Sonny Gray brings a 50% groundball rate and was better than his 2018 4.90 ERA would suggest considering he had a 4.10 xFIP. He’ll need to get the walks back in check after struggling with control last season, but I do like him for a bounce-back campaign. And finally, Roark isn’t a world-beater, but he’s still a clear upgrade to the back end of the rotation. A 3:1 K:BB ratio is nothing to scoff at from a fourth starter and he averaged exactly six innings per start...

Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/26/18 Man, late season baseball can be a tricky venture. Teams are playing young guys, most squads don't have a single incentive, and pitcher pitch counts can get real funky. But we've still got you covered with cash game options for FanDuel and DraftKings. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Jacob deGrom FD 12300 DK 13200 Opponent - ATL (Sean Newcomb) Park - ATL FD - 42.97 DK - 23.71 You are paying top dollar for a low money line odds favorite which has basically been deGrom’s story all season. He leads all pitchers in WAR (8.3) with a 32% strikeout rate and 5.6:1 K:BB ratio. He should win the NL Cy Young (unless voters equate the lack of wins as being an indictment on deGrom) and really probably has a class-action lawsuit pending against the Mets’ offense. He doesn’t draw the best matchup here considering the Braves don’t strike out all that much as a team, but he’s clearly the best arm going on this slate.* Late in the season, we can usually find cheap, fill-in bats hitting at the top of the order, making fitting deGrom’s salary just a little easier. *I’m caveating this by saying Chris Sale is probably the best pitcher, but I’m concerned about the pitch count at his current price point. Shane Bieber FD 8800 DK 8900 Opponent - CHW (Jace Fry) Park - CHW FD - 35.8 DK - 19.04 As of this writing, Bieber is the scheduled starter for Cleveland though there’s no Vegas line on the game yet. My guess, if Bieber sticks, is we see Cleveland as something like -165* road favorites against the White Sox. Bieber has excellent peripherals on the season, sitting at a 5.2:1 K:BB ratio while striking out a batter an inning. The 3.37 xFIP is about 1.5 runs lower than his 4.80 ERA mostly because it appears he’s run bad on both BABIP (.362) and LOB% (68%). He draws a fantastic matchup against the White Sox who, over the season, have struck out 26% of the time against righties and own a bottom-third .305 wOBA in that split. The park doesn’t do Bieber any favors here, but everything else is in his favor. *Update: It's Cleveland -190 Andrew Heaney FD 8500 DK 8000 Opponent - TEX (Yohander Mendez) Park - TEX...

Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/24/18 We are entering the final week of the MLB season (can you believe it?) and while most of the pennant race stories are closed and shut, there's still plenty of DFS value to go around. Let's dive into some of the plays Monday's slate of games. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Jack Flaherty FD 9000 DK 9100 Opponent - MIL (Undecided) Park - STL FD - 37.61 DK - 20.56 Flaherty had been rolling through August an into September, striking out 57 batters in 48 innings and allowing only nine earned runs in that span (eight starts) before finally coming somewhat undone last game in Atlanta. He allowed five runs in four and 2/3 innings before getting pulled. He’ll look to bounce back on Monday against the Brewers. He’s a -135 home favorite and is coming reasonably priced on both sites. The Cardinals are still very much playing meaningful games, 1.5 games up on the Rockies for the final NL Wildcard slot. Flaherty’s peripherals have been excellent this season, striking out almost 10.5 batters per nine, though the 3.4 BB/9 rate can catch him at times. The control hasn’t been an issue in the short term though. The Brewers are a good offense, but come in with only a 3.7 implied run line on Monday. The high leverage nature of the game combined with Flaherty’s stuff has him very much in the cash game mix on Monday. Stephen Strasburg FD 11200 DK 10700 Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - WSH FD - 39.91 DK - 21.81 Strasburg took this Marlins’ team to task five days ago with an 11K - 2BB performance over six innings in which he allowed only five hits and two earned runs. He was dominant with just one inning giving him fits and driving the pitch count up. The Nationals haven’t been in the playoff mix for quite some time, but it hasn’t stopped them from pushing the starters just for the sake of doing it. Strasburg has one of the best matchups on the board for Monday against a Marlins team ranked dead last against righties on the season with a .291 wOBA and 23% K rate. They stink. He’s a huge -240 opening home favorite and should be able to command through this borderline AAA lineup with...

Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/21/18 Sure, it's my birthday today but did that stop me from firing through the MLB picks for Friday? Hell no. We've got a full slate with some teams still vying for playoff spots, the Yankees and Mariners in spots to put up big runs and more. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Rich Hill FD 9200 DK 9500 Opponent - SD (Eric Lauer) Park - LAD FD - 37.32 DK - 20.05 Hill didn’t look sharp in either of his two last outings, only getting to five innings in each with a max of 84 pitches. The last one was in a rout of St. Louis so it makes sense he had a quick pull when the game was completely out of hand. Considering the Dodgers are one of the few teams in an actual playoff race right now, I do think we see a full complement of pitches for Hill if the game stays close. And he has the best matchup on the board. He’s a -250 home favorite against the lowly Padres who rank 22nd in wOBA against lefties this season and strike out 24% of the time in that split. When Hill is firing on all cylinders, the guy has big time K upside, striking out more than 10 batters per nine, though he does issue walks time and again (3.11/9). But for the price and win expectation (and of course the opponent) you are getting a solid cash game pitcher without breaking the bank. CC Sabathia FD 7500 DK 7500 Opponent - BAL (Yefrey Ramirez) Park - NYY FD - 32.27 DK - 16.12 Sabathia has actually ticked up his K stuff this season, sitting at a 21% K%, up from 19% last season and been able to reduce the walks by just a hair. Two of his last three starts have been rough, not making through three innings in his last one against Toronto. But on Friday he has a chance to bounce back against an Orioles’ team tied for last in the league against lefties this season with a .286 wOBA (pretty remarkably bad considering they get a DH and the other NL teams in that range don’t). Baltimore is fielding a borderline AAA team at this point and there’s a reason CC comes in with the best money...

Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/19/18 Let's get set for a full-day's worth of Wednesday MLB action. Though there are some early games on the schedule, we'll focus here on the main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Walker Buehler FD 9400 DK 11300 Opponent - COL (Tyler Anderson) Park - COL FD - 37.52 DK - 19.82 Buehler’s been fantastic over his last three starts, striking out 25 batters in his last 20.3 innings capped off by an 8IP, 0ER, 9K performance against St. Louis last Friday. The most encouraging part has been the longer leash on his pitch counts. He’s gone over 100 in two of his last three starts. Considering this is a high-leverage game for the Dodgers and their playoff chances, expect to see Buehler go as far as he can if pitching well. Considering the Rockies play half of their games in Coors, they’ve been terrible against righties this season striking out 23% of the time with a .313 wOBA in that split. They get real rough in the lower half of the lineup and Buehler has major strikeout upside in this matchup. He’s very expensive on DraftKings, but considering some of the question marks around other arms, it likely makes sense to pay a premium. This late in the season it’s tough to find games that actually matter. This is one of them and Buehler as a -200 home favorite could be the chalk cash pitcher. Chris Archer FD 7800 DK 7700 Opponent - KC (Heath Fillmyer) Park - KC FD - 36.2 DK - 19.47 Archer comes in as the second-best money line win favorite on the evening slate as a -200 home favorite against the Royals. I’ll hand it to Kansas City, they’ve stuck with pretty much this same trash lineup over the course of the season so we have a pretty good idea of their expectation (hint: it’s low). They rank 23rd in wOBA against righties and strike out about 21% of the time in that split. After some rough outings, Archer has struck out 19 batters in his last 17 innings while only walking six. BABIP has bit him at times in the short term, but the control is at least encouraging if he’s going to limit the free passes. Pittsburgh is a pitcher’s park and...