Early DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 4/11/19
Early DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 4/11/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Early Pitchers Shane Bieber FD 9700 DK 9900 Opponent - DET (Spencer Turnbull) Park - DET FD - 33.81 DK - 18.07 It’s really just Bieber and Buehler on the high-end at pitcher on this early slate. You can include Wacha and Leake as well, but Wacha is an underdog and Leake is involved in a 10 O/U game. Between Bieber and Buehler, we’re leaning Bieber. Buehler is a probably a better overall pitcher, but he has a tougher match-up and was limited to just 87 pitches in his last outing. We know the Dodgers like to limit their pitchers and you could easily see these two teams battling it out until late, leaving the win for a reliever. Combine that with the Cardinals being the best team Buehler has faced yet and an 8 O/U against a patient lineup. I’ll pass. Shane Bieber draws a Tigers team that’s living on luck so far (2nd in BABIP) and is one of the absolute worst lineups in all of the league. They struck out 23% of the time last season and are projected to finish last in the Central. The bat of Christin Stewart can only lead them so far. Shane Bieber is one of the more hyped up pitchers coming into this season, and he’s delivered this far with an 11:2 K:BB ratio. The hype comes from his disgusting 4.7% walk rate in 2018. He can pinpoint his pitches and will very rarely get himself into trouble. While he has a lot of work to do before getting himself even on the same level as the rest of the Indians staff, he’s good enough to get through the Tigers. The Indians are the biggest favorites on this slate and Bieber is your safest cash game option. Sonny Gray FD 7300 DK 8900 Opponent - MIA (Pablo Lopez) Park - CIN FD - 32.02 DK - 16.66 If you’re looking to pay for some bats and don’t think Bieber is all that, there are two affordable options here that deserve legitimate interest. Let’s start with Sonny Gray, who’s a bit more established. He didn’t have a great 2018, but definitely got a bit unlucky. His BABIP allowed was high (.340) and xFIP (3.98) pretty low, so he didn’t have as bad of a season as we’d like to think. Gray came back out after a miserable opening start and struck out seven Pirates across...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 4/10/19 – Early Slate
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 4/10/19 - Early Slate The early slate gives us a game in Coors with a hefty run total, plus Trevor Bauer looking to rebound from a disappointing (?!) no-hit bid last time out. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Trevor Bauer FD 11500 DK 11000 Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - DETFD - 40.06 DK - 21.92 Bauer really struggled with the walks his last time out against the Blue Jays, offering up six free passes in seven innings while striking out eight. That being said, he had a no-hitter going when he exited in the 7th. So the truth lies somewhere in between. He’s clearly an ace arm, as evidenced by the 2018 campaign that saw him strike out more than 11 batters per nine, limit the walks to less than three per nine and rock a 2.21 ERA (3.14 xFIP). It all spelled top-tier ace level production and he’s in a great spot against a righty-heavy Tigers’ lineup. While *only* a -141 road favorite here, you have to like him as the overall top points play on the early slate of games. Tyler Glasnow FD 8900 DK 9700 Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - CHWFD - 36.58 DK - 19.77 Glasnow converted to a starter late last season and started this year with two solid performances. He’s pitched five and six innings respectively, allowing only one earned run and striking out ten. You love to see the 5:1 K:BB ratio considering walks had been something of a problem from when he came up with the Pirates a few years ago. Those seem to have gone by the wayside and he’s no exhibiting rather elite control in the short term. The White Sox start the year striking out at a 26% rate against righties which is along the lines of the preseason projections. This is a team with a lot of swings and misses in their bats. Glasnow is expensive to pair with Bauer on DK, though it’s possible if you sacrifice a bat or two. Also Consider: Nick Margevicius (FD $6400 DK $7300) against the Giants. He didn't show it in his first start, but has had strikeout potential in the minors. Listen to "Daily Fantasy MLB Podcast for FanDuel and DraftKings Wednesday 4/10/19" on Spreaker. Team Cash Stacks Tampa Bay RaysPark - CHWOpposing Pitcher - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez)Vegas Implied Run Total - 4.37 Reynaldo Lopez continues his run as one of the worst starting pitchers...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 4/10/19 – Main Slate
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 4/10/19 - Main Slate Wednesday's main slate gives us a little dash of Thor, some A's to stack, a ways to play a bunch of Phillies. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Noah Syndergaard FD 9900 DK 10400 Opponent - MIN (Jake Odorizzi) Park - NYMFD - 40.61 DK - 22.07 Thor’s peripherals have been very solid to start the season, though he’s run into the Mets’ bug that deGrom had last season. Namely, his team doesn’t want to score a bunch for him. Granted he gave up four earned runs in his first start, but he’s struck out 13 batters in 12 innings while only walking two. Now he enters Wednesday’s action as a massive -215 home favorite against the Twins and their non-imposing lineup. deGrom was a chalk start on Tuesday night and I expect Syndergaard to be the same on the main slate for Wednesday. The sub-$10K price on FanDuel makes him a rather easy call, and you aren’t breaking the bank on DraftKings either. Nick Pivetta FD 8900 DK 8500 Opponent - WSH (Jeremy Hellickson) Park - PHIFD - 32.59 DK - 17.39 Ok the bad news first: Pivetta hasn’t made it past five innings in either of his first two starts this season. He allowed a ton of hits (17 total) to the Braves and Twins and got chased early in both games. So the early start returns haven’t been there. Now the good news: Pivetta has had somethings we can hang our hat on. He’s cut the walk rate, allowing only two free passes in 9.2 innings while getting BABIP’ed hard (.412). The 3.82 xFIP trails the 6.52 ERA by almost three runs. He’s always *underperformed* in that respect so we need to take it with a grain of salt. But I do think we are still buying low on the profile. Also Consider: Robbie Ray (FD $8100 DK $9400) against the Rangers. Dude can walk the ballpark, but has as much K upside as anyone in the game when he can lock in. Listen to "Daily Fantasy MLB Podcast for FanDuel and DraftKings Wednesday 4/10/19" on Spreaker. Team Cash Stacks Oakland AthleticsPark - BALOpposing Pitcher - BAL (Josh Rogers)Vegas Implied Run Total - 5.12 The Orioles pitching staff is an epic disaster and they are (seemingly) having a new bum come up each night to get rocked by the opposing team. That could be Josh Rogers’ roll on Wednesday. His minor league stats...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 4/9/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 4/9/19 Tuesday's MLB action brings us a bunch of aces hitting the mound throughout the day plus another game in Coors. There's a lot to like for FanDuel and DraftKings value though we may need to decide if it's worth paying up for arms or bats. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Gerrit Cole FD 11200 DK 10500 Opponent - NYY (Jonathan Loaisiga) Park - HOUFD - 40.81 DK - 22.7 Cole has opened this season much like he performed in 2018: striking everyone out. He has 19 K’s in his first 12 innings pitched this season against the Rays and Rangers respectively. He’ll get a *tougher* matchup against the Yankees on Tuesday, but it’s worth noting that this version of the Bronx *Bombers* is playing without Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar and Aaron Hicks at the top of the lineup. While still a somewhat imposing team, they’ve taken injury hits that have greatly compromised how imposing they look as a lineup. Cole’s been as good as any pitching in the league to start the year, posting a 6.3:1 K:BB ratio in dominating fashion. He’s a -170 home favorite against the Yankees on Tuesday, among the best win odds on the main slate. Jacob deGrom FD 12000 DK 11600 Opponent - MIN (Kyle Gibson) Park - NYMFD - 40.46 DK - 22.68 Speaking of win odds, deGrom actually has the best at -215 against the Twins at home. He, like Cole, is striking out just every thing in sight with 24 strikeouts in 13 innings against the Marlins and Nationals respectively. The Twins aren’t especially prone to strikeouts with their current order, but deGrom cares not for your batter profiles. This dude is just mowing people down. It helps getting Minnesota at home where he’ll get the pitcher slot and the only real question is if it’s worth paying the 7% (or so) more for deGrom over Cole. It’s very close considering what they bring to the table. Joey Lucchesi FD 7900 DK 9200 Opponent - SF (Derek Holland) Park - SFFD - 34.69 DK - 18.33 Joey “Lucky” Lucchesi has had a strong start to the season, striking out more than 11 batters per nine and keeping the walks under three per nine. He hasn’t allowed an earned run yet though the xFIP sits at 2.19. You love to see the control in check and he’s gifted another plus matchup against the Giants in San Francisco. He struck out seven...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 4/7/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 4/7/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Mike Clevinger FD 10800 DK 9900 Opponent - TOR (Marcus Stroman) Park - CLE FD - 39.97 DK - 21.51 We’re just focusing on the main slate, so keep that in mind here at pitcher. On the all day slate, you add options like Blake Snell and Chris Sale to the mix. On the main slate, it’s between Max Scherzer and Mike Clevinger at the top. Clevinger is not as good of a pitcher as Scherzer, but he’s going 100+ pitches and sees a phenomenal match-up with the Blue Jays. Clevinger is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, though, sporting a . 286 combined wOBA allowed with a near 10 K/9. He faces off with an offense that has already proven how ugly it is and that’s not going to change all season. Justin Smoak and Grichuk are going to have some big games, but it’s a lineup that will maintain the 23% K rate and bottom five team wOBA. Clevinger is as safe as it gets and you can play him for cheaper than Scherzer. Max Scherzer FD 11900 DK 11900 Opponent - NYM (Zack Wheeler) Park - NYM FD - 47.71 DK - 27.26 The leader in terms of raw points, Max Scherzer is facing off with the New York Mets. He dominated them in his first start of the season, going 7.2 innings and striking out 12, allowing just 2 runs. The Mets have been playing well, but they held a 23% strikeout rate in '18 and we know Scherzer can K as many as anyone. The Mets will split righties and lefties, and only a couple of lefties are any good. They still K and I think the 12 strikeouts on opening day is repeatable. Clevinger is a bit cheaper and has similar upside, but Scherzer has guaranteed strikeout upside and could be lesser owned. Brad Keller FD 7600 DK 7200 Opponent - DET (Tyson Ross) Park - DET FD - 26.19 DK - 12.6 If you’re looking to save some salary at pitcher, I love Brad Keller. In the same price range, I think most will prefer German and Newcomb. Newcomb is having trouble throwing strikes right now and German is a pure GPP play. Brad Keller was a 2017 rule 5 draft player and has impressed ever since joining the club. He’s a true sinker ball pitcher, which we don’t see much of anymore. Think...