DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 4/15/19 It would be tough for Monday to live up to Sunday's sports' goodness. Tiger wins the Masters, four games of NBA playoff action, baseball all day. It was glorious. Let's deal with a slight sports hangover by rocking through the best MLB value plays for FanDuel and DraftKings. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Trevor Bauer FD 11200 DK 10400 Opponent - SEA (Yusei Kikuchi) Park - SEAFD - 39.04 DK - 21.37 On Sunday, we wrote up Gerrit Cole against the Mariners despite that being somewhat of an unpopular move. It’s easy to see with the Mariners off to such a torrid offensive start. But as we mentioned, some of the M's early season success relies on them being among the tops in the league in both BABIP and Hr/FB ratios. When those numbers regress more to standards we will see this team slow down a bit. Bauer has mostly maintained his 11 K per nine rate from last year though this season the walks have been something of a problem. It’s meant his 3.92 xFIP is trailing the 2.29 ERA which could lead to some pessimism going forward. There are other quality arms on this slate, so I don’t see Bauer as a clear cash lock, but I do think we’ll get him slightly lower owned because of the matchup. Noah Syndergaard FD 9900 DK 10000 Opponent - PHI (Aaron Nola) Park - PHIFD - 33.38 DK - 18.04 There are a number of quality arms on this slate, though some are a little rough coming out of the gate. Nola hasn’t looked all that good, it’s Kershaw’s first game back, Darvish has been mostly a disaster and Castillo has a tough matchup. That kind of leaves us by default with Syndergaard. He’s been excellent to start the season with a 10:1 K:BB ratio, striking out about 9.5 batters per nine and limiting batters to a 26% hard contact rate. The problem, of course, is the Phillies lineup that ranks among the best in the league. They are a righty-heavy group, with only one lefty bat (Harper) in four of the first five batters. But I’m buying Thor as the best of the rest of the group on Monday. Freddy Peralta FD 7800 DK 8800 Opponent - STL (Dakota Hudson) Park - MILFD - 35.5 DK - 19 It’s easy to get seduced by Peralta’s strikeout upside. After all, this is a dude with 115 K’s over...

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 4/14/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Max Scherzer FD 11500 DK 10700 Opponent - PIT (Jameson Taillon) Park - WAS FD - 42.7 DK - 24.09 Max continues to be, well, about the best pitcher in baseball. After back-to-back seasons of 12+ K’s per nine, he’s actually increased the number this season to 13.26/9 over his first 19 innings while lowering the walks to less than two per nine. It’s just the beginning of another dominant season from arguably (or maybe not) the top arm in the game. The Pirates don’t strike out much as a team, but are a bottom-half squad in terms of OPS against righties. Scherzer is a -185 home favorite with Jameson Taillon going for the Buckos cutting a bit into the win expectation. That being said, Scherzer isn’t priced anywhere close to the peak, especially on DraftKings where the sub $11K salary isn’t anywhere close to reality. Gerrit Cole FD 10800 DK 10200 Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - SEA FD - 38.63 DK - 21.44 Cole took the strikeout gains from his first season in Houston and maintained them so far this year. After coming over from the Pirates, he had a shift in approach that saw him eliminate his sinker (and basically his changeup) in favor of a strictly fastball, curveball, slider repertoire. It worked. He’ll face off against a Mariners’ team that has been rather unkind to opposing pitchers so far this season. They rank near the top of the league in OPS on the season and have for sure mashed. But they also have among the highest BABIP and HR/FB rates in the league and strikeout 24% of the time against righties. They are a good squad, but Cole is a -167 road favorite and I think Seattle’s early season success will have the ownership a bit lower on the Astro righty. Charlie Morton FD 9200 DK 9700 Opponent - TOR (Caleb Ferguson) Park - TOR FD - 37.74 DK - 20.72 While the Mariners started the season white hot on the offensive end, the Blue Jays have been, well, something like the opposite. They’ve been horrible and there aren’t many lights at the end of the tunnel for Toronto this season. They are barely fielding a competent major league lineup and it shows. The Blue Jays strike out 30% of the time against righties, and have a bottom-third team OPS. We can consistently target opposing pitchers against this...

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 4/13/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Early Pitcher Blake Snell FD 12000 DK 10700 Opponent - TOR (Clay Buchholz) Park - TORFD - 39.93 DK - 22.22 Snell took a leap last season, going from a a guy who showed flashes of K upside along with major control issues to a dude who struck out 11 batters per nine and cut the walks to 3BB/9. He's looked even better this year. He has 27 strikeouts in his first 19 innings while walking only three. Snell has turned himself into one of the best pitchers in the game, finally realizing that prospect potential he'd shown in the minors. The matchup against the Blue Jays is basically ideal. He's a -185 road favorite against a team striking out 28% of the time (slightly less against lefties) on the season. Michael Pineda FD 8600 DK 7800 Opponent - DET (Tyson Ross) Park - DETFD - 34.81 DK - 18.46 After a lost year thanks to injury, Pineda has turned in some solid performances on a new team and in a new stadium. He threw only 40 pitches in his first game back, but was as efficient as possible with 4IP and 5K’s. They doubled the pitch count to 80 in his second start and he struck out five batters in five innings against the Phillies. That’s good for 10 K’s per nine and a 5:1 K:BB ratio. On Friday, he’ll get his easiest matchup yet against a bottom-tier Tigers’ offense, who strikes out 28% of the time this season against righties. Pineda’s price hasn’t moved enough yet, helped by having the short leash in his first two outings. If the pitch count trajectory continues, we could see him go into the sixth inning as a sizable favorite. This might be one of the last times we see Pineda at this sort of price in a matchup like this.  Team Cash Stacks Boston Red Sox Park - BOSOpposing Pitcher - BAL (Andrew Cashner)Vegas Implied Run Total - 6.46 Stacking against Andrew Cashner is always a good idea, especially when it's a potent offense like the Red Sox. His 5.21 ERA and 1.76 WHIP this season indicates why, as his 5.29 ERA and 1.58 WHIP last season isn't much better. While Boston's offense has struggled this year, their 2018 numbers would indicate they have some positive regression headed their way. Not only did they lead the majors in runs scored last season, but they also...

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 4/12/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Carlos Carrasco FD 10500 DK 11000 Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KCFD - 40.48 DK - 22.53 It’s been the tale of two starts for Carrasco at the beginning of this season. His opener was a disaster, allowing six runs in 4.1 innings against the Twins. But he bounced back with 12 Ks’ in six innings against the Blue Jays, allowing two runs and getting the win. The truth lies somewhere in between for the righty, but that still leaves him firmly in play against the Royals. who don’t strike out a ton but are a below-average offense in general. Carrasco struck out about 11 batters per nine over 192 innings in 2018 with a 5.4:1 K:BB ratio. The 2.90 xFIP was actually a bit better than the 3.38 ERA. It all spells good things and he should be a popular play on both sites considering the peripherals and matchup. Patrick Corbin FD 10000 DK 10100 Opponent - PIT (Trevor Williams) Park - PITFD - 38.13 DK - 20.7 Our system isn't as high on Corbin on the simple basis of the money-line here, which has him as a significantly worse favorite than guys like Happ or Eduardo Rodriguez. Still, it's tough to ignore the man's last two seasons of pitching. Corbin jumped from 8.45 K/9 to 11.07 K/9, maintaining a double-digit K rate in spite of most people (including us) calling for significant regression. He's striking almost 10 batters per 9 innings through two starts this year, so it looks like those trends could continue. The Pirates have been kind of tough on lefties this season, striking out at a bottom 10 rate while posting a middle of the pack wOBA, but I still like Corbin as a very solid pitcher 2 on DraftKings tonight. J.A. Happ FD 9400 DK 9200 Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - NYYFD - 35.76 DK - 18.93 Happ draws the White Sox tonight, which sounds like it should be a big step up from his prior match-ups this season, until you realize he has faced the Orioles twice. He also happened to be pretty bad in those two games. Some of that comes from pitch count maintenance (75 pitches on Opening Day, up to 88 in his second start) but he also let up three home runs in his 8.1 total innings (two of the three to Mancini). But if we assume the...

Late DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 4/11/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Late Slate Pitchers Jon Gray FD 8500 DK 9300 Opponent - SF (Jeff Samardzija) Park - SFFD - 35.57 DK - 18.69 There’s no clear way to go at pitcher on this slate. Joe Musgrove is interesting, but he’s facing the team with the number one wOBA vs righties in the entire league (.406). Gausman is another interesting name, but the Mets are strong from the left-handed side and Gausman struggles with lefties. That leads us to Jon Gray, who’s going into one of the friendliest ballparks for pitching and is facing off with a Giants team that ranks in the bottom five against right-handed pitching. Gray hasn’t been excellent to start the season, but his woes should be righted in the spacious Oracle Park. Gray is a strikeout per inning arm that can go 90-100 pitches with ease. He has a legitimate second and third pitch, though they sometimes don’t have much command. There isn’t much pitching on this slate to begin with, so there’s no getting picky. Gray gets one of the best match-ups out there and is fairly priced around the industry. The Giants hold the lowest implied total of the entire day at 3.40, so Vegas agreed with all the above. He’s the top pitcher regardless of price or format. Jeff Samardzija FD 5900 DK 7500 Opponent - COL (Jon Gray) Park - SFFD - 28.41 DK - 14.44 On the surface, Jeff Samardzija is nowhere near the pitcher he once was and there’s no real upside. On the other hand, he’s way too cheap and gets to face off with a bad lineup in a good ballpark. The Rockies are pitiful outside of Coors Field and Samardzija actually isn’t half bad. In 2018, he was hurt most of the season. Prior to that, he pitched 200 innings with 200 strikeouts in 3 of the last 5 seasons. He should be able to go six quality innings here and at his price, that’s more than you need. He’ll allow you to spend up for just about every bat you would like and give you a 10% owned quality pitcher. This slate doesn’t have much pitching to be confident in, but it also doesn’t have any easy and obvious offenses. Playing Samardzija will allow us to cherry pick the top bats in each order without a clear stack on the line. The Rockies are only expected to put up 3.60...