DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 5/20/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 5/20/19 Some of you spend Sunday evening getting your Game of Thrones on. Around here, we made sure you were set with value plays for FanDuel and DraftKings MLB contests. Priorities baby! Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Patrick Corbin FD - P 10800 DK - SP 10900 Opponent - NYM (Drew Gagnon) Park - NYMFD - 34.68 DK - 18.84 The Nationals are struggling this season, but it’s tough to blame Corbin who’s performed well since coming over in the offseason as a free agent. He’s striking batters out at a 30% clip (10.6 K/9) with an 3.56 xFIP only about a half run higher than the 2.91 ERA. On Monday, he’ll face the Mets who are striking out about 29% of the time against lefties this season. They rank around middle of the pack in terms of wOBA in that split, but this still lines up as a plus matchup for the lefty. There’s no early line on this game, but I’d expect Corbin to open at something like a -170 road favorite against the lowly Mets and Wilmer Font. Luke Weaver FD - P 9600 DK - SP 8500 Opponent - SD (Chris Paddack) Park - SDFD - 34.22 DK - 18.1 Weaver struggled to maintain his rookie season numbers last year with the Cardinals, spiking a 4.46 XFIP with the K’s dipping below eight per nine. But he’s bounced back this season after coming to the Diamondbacks in the Paul Goldschmidt trade. Weaver is back up to a 26% strikeout rate and the walks are under 6%, good for a 4.5:1 K:BB ratio. These are all such positive signs for the young arm. He gets to take on the Padres in a great pitchers park in San Diego against a team that ranks 25th against righties and strikes out 25% of the time. He’s an underdog in this matchup (+125) but he’s also coming a bit cheaper than Chris Paddock who he’s facing. J.A. Happ FD - P 8300 DK - SP 8000 Opponent - BAL (Andrew Cashner) Park - BALFD - 31.22 DK - 16.52 Happ’s been inconsistent to start the season, posting a dramatically lower K rate than he had in Toronto. While the walks remain relatively in check, the K rate has dipped below the 20% mark, to 18.5% the lowest of his career. He’ll get a chance to make some strides in that category on Monday against a Baltimore team that strikes...
FanDuel and DraftKings MLB Picks for Sunday, 5/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 5/19/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Sunday slates are always my favorite because we get almost every team in baseball playing within a three-hour span. It's baseball's equivalent to the Red Zone Channel and that's a beautiful sight for any baseball fan. In terms of weather, we don't have a whole lot to worry about on this slate. With that said, Cincinnati, Chicago and Washington are some games we need to keep an eye on, as they have questionable forecasts. Pitchers Noah Syndergaard FD - P 10400 DK - SP 10400 Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - MIAFD - 41.06 DK - 22.42 There's a lot to like here about Syndergaard and he's probably the highest-upside pitcher on this slate. While he struggled early on, the fact that he owns a 2.35 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over his last three starts shows the sort of potential he has. We're talking about a guy with a K rate approaching 30 percent too and it's no doubt that Thor is one of the most dangerous arms in the Majors. That makes him worth using against anyone but facing the Marlins is an absolute treat. In fact, Miami currently sits last in wOBA, xWOBA, xSLG, OPS and runs scored. Joe Musgrove FD - P 7500 DK - SP 6400 Opponent - SD (Cal Quantrill) Park - SDFD - 30.79 DK - 15.98 Musgrove allowed 13 combined runs in his last two starts before a seven-inning shutout earlier in the week but those poor outings lowered his price to this tempting number. Outside of those two starts, Musgrove has been stellar, posting an ERA south of 1.50 and a minuscule WHIP of 0.80. That's obviously ridiculous and it has to make one wonder why he's so cheap. Getting to face San Diego is not something we need to worry about either, with the Padres ranking 27th in K rate, 29th in OBP and 26th in xwOBA. Shane Bieber pops up very highly in our projections against a Baltimore offense who ranks 29th in xwOBA. Catcher/First Base Max Muncy FD - 1B 3200 DK - 1B/2B 4900 Opponent - CIN (Tanner Roark) Park - CINFD - 14.41 DK - 10.73 While this DraftKings price is definitely appropriate, this FanDuel price is hard to understand. We're talking about a guy who has an ISO approaching .300 and an xwOBA just shy of .400 since the start of last season. He comes into this matchup hot...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 5/18/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 5/18/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Madison Bumgarner FD - P 8600 DK - SP 9700 Opponent - ARI (Zack Godley) Park - ARI FD - 31.82 DK - 16.47 Right now it essentially looks like we'll be deciding whether we want to go cheaper with Bumgarner or more expensive with Stephen Strasburg. We'll get to Stras' case in a second, so let's take a look at Bumgarner. First, the bad news. Getting Bumgarner in Arizona instead of the pitcher friendly Oracle park is less than ideal. It also doesn't help that the Diamondbacks have been, well, awesome against left handed pitching. Their .365 wOBA against lefties is the second best in the majors, and are far from a conventional target for our cash game pitchers. So why bother with Bumgarner? It's mostly a function of his price, the other options, and his own talents. The Mad Bum has been great this season, posting a 9.38 K/9 against a pristine 1.29 BB/9. He's been averaging six innings per start as well. Like I said, this isn't exactly a spot you're dreaming about, but given the lack of great options today it might be our best. Stephen Strasburg FD - P 10800 DK - SP 10700 Opponent - CHC (Jon Lester) Park - WSH FD - 36.75 DK - 20.11 You won't get any argument from me that Strasburg is the best raw talent pitcher on this slate. He's got a sparkling 2.72 xFIP thanks to his career best 11.84 K/9 this season. He's also rolling with a near career best 51.1% ground-ball rate, and all of these improvements have come without the cost of his control. His ERA is nothing to write home about, but the 2.72 xFIP very much paints the picture that we're looking at peak Stras. Like Bumgarner, though, Strasburg has some match-up issues. The Cubs hold the 6th best wOBA against righties, and are striking out at a below average rate against them. While Strasburg is better than Bumgarner, he's also more expensive. I'll be curious to see where our lineup optimizer lands on this one. Nick Margevicius FD - P 7000 DK - SP 6900 Opponent - PIT (Steven Brault) Park - SD FD - 28.33 DK - 13.69 Put away your pitchforks! No, Margevicius hasn't been very good so far in his brief major league career. But the 22 year old southpaw has more promise than you might realize. He was basically a...
FanDuel and DraftKings Picks for Friday, 5/17/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 5/17/19 Friday's MLB action brings us plenty of options for FanDuel and DraftKings lineups. We've got some aces taking the mound in deGrom and Scherzer. But there's also plenty of ways to stack big bats if you aren't going to pay up for pitching. Let's take a look at what Friday's baseball DFS options have to offer. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!This season has been crazy in terms of weather and this forecast is no different. The cities/states that we need to focus on are Washington, Atlanta, Cleveland, Chicago and Seattle. The good news is that none of them look too serious at this point but it will be critical to monitor these developing forecasts over the next 24 hours. PitchersJacob deGrom FD - P 12000 DK - SP 11400 Opponent - MIA (Trevor Richards) Park - MIAFD - 46.02 DK - 25.73deGrom is easily the best pitching option on the board. Not only is he one of the best pitchers in the majors right now, he also has the best matchup possible. In fact, the Marlins currently rank dead-last in runs scored, OPS and xwOBA. That's really no surprise when you consider the fact that Starlin Castro is their best hitter. Pitching at Marlins Park should only help, as that currently ranks as the best pitcher's park in the league based on park factors. Vegas loves deGrom too, making him a -260 favorite in a game with a 6.5-total. Joey Lucchesi FD - P 6200 DK - SP 8200 Opponent - PIT (Jordan Lyles) Park - SDFD - 32.93 DK - 17.51Lucchesi is my favorite value play of the day and this $6,300 price tag on FanDuel is nearly impossible to fade. While his 4.57 ERA and 1.35 WHIP is nothing to write home about, he's a much better pitcher than those numbers would indicate. His 3.37 FIP this season is a much better indicator of how good he's been and it's hard to argue with his 25.4 percent career K rate. That FIP and K rate are way too good for a pitcher below $7,000, especially a guy who gets to pitch at Petco Park against a bad offense. Not only is Petco one of the best pitcher's parks in the majors, the Pirates also rank 25th in wOBA and 28th in runs scored. Also Consider: Max Scherzer (FD $10800 DK $11100) is arguably the best pitcher in the league and is always worth considering, even against the Cubs. Listen to "Friday's...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 5/13/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 5/13/19 Monday's MLB action brings us a shorter evening slate of games with plenty of pitching options. That could leave the offensive stacking options a little on the thinner side of things. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Robbie Ray FD - P 8800 DK - SP 10000 Opponent - PIT (Nick Kingham) Park - ARIFD - 36.13 DK - 19.8 With Robbie Ray you are going to have to be willing to walk the emotional tightrope with any of his starts. That’s because his strikeout *stuff* is as good as just about anyone in the game. Unfortunately, it’s paired with walk *stuff* that will drive you hurtling towards an early grave. On Monday, considering the short slate and the matchup I think we can roll Ray out there in cash games and hold our breath. The Pirates rank dead last in team wOBA against lefties this season (.259) and strikeout almost 29% of the time intact split. They are a wreck and the bottom of the order is among the weakest in the game. Ray, for all his wildness (4.74 BBs per nine) still owns a respectable 3.76 xFIP thanks to an 11.34 K/9 rate and the ability to limit the home runs thus far. Shane Bieber FD - P 9500 DK - SP 9000 Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - CHWFD - 33.41 DK - 17.98 The Indians come in as only a slight (-125) road favorite against the White Sox though that line strikes me as just a tad low. Bieber has some of the best control in the game when things are clicking and this season he owns nearly a 4:1 K:BB rate. The walks are up just a tad over his career numbers, but the White Sox are a free-swinging team striking out 26% of the time against righties and ranking in the bottom third in taking walks. We aren’t getting great money line win odds on Bieber, and the ballpark does him no favors when it comes to suppressing power, but I still like his chances for going further into the game because of the White Sox team hitter profile. Some will talk themselves into Jose Berrios (FD $10400 DK $9400) against the Angels but I prefer the two arms above. Berrios is striking out less than a batter per nine this season and the 4.11 xFIP is about 1.5 runs higher than his ERA. The Angels, while not a prolific offense, don’t strike out all that much (16% of the time against righties, easily the lowest in the league.) Catcher/First Base C.J. Cron FD - 1B 3500 DK - 1B 4300 Opponent - LAA...