Week 7 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 10/23/20 On Thursday we gave out New York Giants +5 and the under 44.5 both of which hit. Let’s take a look at some other bets to target going into Week 7. Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!   Kansas City ChiefsOpponent DENChiefs -10, -9.5 in some spots I know I wrote up earlier in the season that going into Mile High made it a tough cover for road favorites there. The thin air specifically gives opponents trouble. But those opponents aren’t anything like these Chiefs and other iterations of the Broncos haven’t been quite as bad as this group. Despite a rather odd loss to the Raiders on the road in Week 5, the Chiefs came back and handled business against the Bills in Week 6 on a wet and cool evening in Buffalo. Denver’s been frisky over the last couple of weeks with a surprise win over the Patriots and a rather predictable victory over the Jets. But the Broncos offense is awful, ranking 29th on the season and scoring more than 21 points only once this season (against the Jets). The defense has looked solid (ranked 6th) thanks to an adjusted boost based on their pretty tough schedule to start the season. This is still the high octane Chiefs who’ve won games by nine or more in four of their first six games. And despite the solid defense relatively speaking, Denver allows the sixth-most opponent plays per game this season. This is a cover for the Chiefs.   Houston Texans Opponent GBTexans +4 It was a crime against humanity that Houston didn’t cover the +3.5 we had them at last week against Tennessee. They led by seven with 1:50 to go after the Brandin Cooks touchdown. They then allowed a 76-yard drive from Ryan Tannehill to get the Titans tied and headed to overtime. Then they allowed another 82-yard drive in overtime ending in a Derrick Henry touchdown and that was all she wrote. What a mess. I’m willing to go back to the well here with Houston who’s shown plenty of fight over the last two weeks since firing Bill OBrien. They’ll now face a Green Bay team at home getting points once again. The Packers have been sneaky bad on defense this season, ranking 30th in DVOA and have let it up both on the ground and through the air. They were trounced...

DFS NFL Podcast - Week 7 Game by Game Game Podcast for DraftKings and FanDuel Enjoy our week 7 NFL game by game podcast, where Doug and James Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL, NHL and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! James and Doug are back to discuss every game on the main slate of NFL DFS games on FanDuel and DraftKings. While some positions are looking chalky, there are a number of interesting tidbits to discuss this week. The greatest discussion centers around the running back options this week. Each of the big-ticket guys has their own question marks - whether it's Zeke's terrible week 6, Alvin Kamara's role with the return of Michael Thomas, or Derrick Henry's tough match-up with Pittsburgh, things are looking fairly difficult. We also have some potentially intriguing mid-range options, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire far too cheap if Le'Veon Bell doesn't arrive, Kareem Hunt back in a good situation, and Joe Mixon potentially missing this one. There are also cheap plays people could target, like Kenyan Drake or DeAndre Swift. For big tournaments, it seems like we could go in any number of directions. Wide receiver has plenty of questions of its own. Should we be thinking about expensive options in big tournaments, even if we can't play them in cash? We might have buy low opportunities on Davante Adams or DeAndre Hopkins, for instance. There are also some guys whose stock might be too expensive. Can we go back to the Julio Jones well after one big week? Can we keep buying on the way up for guys like Chase Claypool or DK Metcalf, whose prices are on the rise based mostly on touchdown equity? All in all, there is a ton to discuss, so this isn't a podcast you're going to want to miss. Love the DFSR podcast? Go ahead and subscribe and listen wherever you get your daily podcasts. Subscribe to this podcast on iTunes Listen on Stitcher Listen on Spotify The DFSR Podcasts are part of the Overtime Media Podcast...

DFS NFL Podcast - Week 7 Cash Game Podcast for DraftKings and FanDuel Enjoy our week 7 NFL cash game podcast, where Doug and James take an early look at cash game plays for FanDuel and DraftKings. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL, NHL and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Doug and James return with an early look at cash games for week 7. While we aren't staring down the barrel of a lot of obvious uncertainty this week, there is still plenty to think about. Quarterback is looking moderately straightforward, with Deshaun Watson getting cheaper while continuing to perform at a top level. On DraftKings the DFSR system is picking out some cheaper options, with Joe Burrow surfacing as an interesting option against the Browns this week. Running back is where the real questions start to surface, with the system wanting to play an expensive option, but not knowing which one. Kamara would be a great play if Thomas sits, but Thomas might return. Zeke would be a top option if he were guaranteed all the carries, but he got benched last week after having fumbling issues. Henry would be the best guy if his match-up were better, but he's going up against a meat grinder in the Steelers. And there are a plethora of mid-range options that look similar as well. Wide receiver continues to be where we're finding value, with Keenan Allen looking like a must play now that he's fully healthy again. The guys also discuss cheaper options like Brandin Cooks, Robby Anderson, and Jamison Crowder - breaking down the respective pros and cons of each. Tight end is a conundrum this week. If everyone is healthy, George Kittle might be a must-play even at a moderately high price tag. If opportunity opens up for Darren Fells or Anthony Firkser, either could be cash game viable this week as well. Love the DFSR podcast? Go ahead and subscribe and listen wherever you get your daily podcasts. Subscribe to this podcast on iTunes Listen on Stitcher Listen on Spotify The DFSR Podcasts are part of the Overtime Media Podcast...

Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 7 Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterbacks Deshaun Watson FD 8000 DK 6800 Opponent GBProj Points FD - 22.44 DK - 23.22 Bill O’Brien was fired after Week 4 and that move has had a nearly 1:1 effect on unlocking Watson’s fantasy potential similar to what we saw last season. In the last two games, since the firing, Watson has thrown for 359 and 335 yards respectively while also putting up a combined 51 yards on the ground. He also has seven passing touchdowns in that stretch and is the second-best fantasy quarterback over the last two weeks behind only Ryan Tannehill. The price hasn’t come up enough for the production and this week he faces a sneaky-bad defensive team in the Packers. They rank 30th in DVOA and 25th against the pass. We ran out Watson in cash last week at low ownership to great results. Here’s to running it back this week. Justin Herbert FD 7500 DK 6400 Opponent JAXProj Points FD - 20.27 DK - 21.26 The Jaguars have been the league’s worst defense against the pass this season and little changed after last week. Matthew Stafford didn’t put up huge numbers mostly because he didn’t need to. The game was in hand by halftime with the Lions up by two scores and things rolled downhill afterward. This week we get to take the rookie Herbert against this atrocious defense and it won’t cost all that much for the pleasure. Though he’s 0-4 as a starter, Herbert has still been efficient through the air with a 69% completion percentage and 9:3 TD:INT rate. He’s averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game and has even gotten out and run with four rushing attempts and 14 rushing yards per game. The price is excellent on both sites and even with only four games under his belt, this is still a cash game spot for the rookie. Joe Burrow FD 7100 DK 5500 Opponent CLEProj Points FD - 19.48 DK - 20.49 Kyle Allen FD 6700 DK 5200 Opponent DALProj Points FD - 15.01 DK - 15.79 On DraftKings, where the pricing is tighter, it can often make a lot of sense to really spend down on more speculative quarterbacks in advantageous matchups. That’s the case with these two this week. Burrow comes in as a DraftKings play where he’s QB18 in...

Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 6 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not safe plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Running Back The Chalk - Derrick Henry, Alexander Mattison, David Montgomery, Jonathan Taylor These are just a few of the RB who I am projecting to be chalky and have them ranked in order of preference. I am most confident in King Henry who gets monster volume(26.8 touches per game) and when he doesn't the yardage totals always seems to make up for it with his heavy redzone and goaline usage. Next up is Alexander Mattison who took over for the injured Dalvin Cook last week and was electric totaling 134 yards from scrimmage on 23 touches. He gets a plus matchup in a game with a high total on a team that loves to run the ball. David Mongomery is in a great spot as Carolina has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game to running backs but the Bears are underdogs here in a game with a lower total. The other scary part for GPP formats is that through five games, Monty has just three rushes and two receptions inside the redzone. As for Taylor, he has seen over 50% of the Colts snaps and over 50% of the running back touches just twice in five games. He does have upside in a plus game script on a running team but I will be underweight at these prices. The Pivots Todd Gurley II FD 6800 DK 6300 Opponent MIN Proj Points FD - 13.23 DK - 14.24 I have both Gurley and Sanders in the sub 10% range for big tournaments this week and I love the upside for both. Let's start with Gurley who has been low owned almost every week which kind of baffles me, to be honest. I get he is not getting the targets which really takes away the PPR value but he has more than made up for it with his opportunity in the redzone sitting third overall with 24 rushing attempts, converting on four of...