Week 11 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 11/18/20 After another strong Week 10, going 2-0-1 (HOU miracle push) and 4-1-1 over the last two weeks, we have Week 11 lining up for some solid NFL betting value. Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!   Tennessee TitansOpponent BALTitans +6.5 Titans +240 .5 units This is an interesting game between two 6-3 teams who’ve reached their respective records in decidedly different ways. For starters, the Ravens haven’t had anything close to the offensive punch we saw in 2019, ranking 24th in DVOA on that side of the ball. Lamar Jackson appears to have regressed to his personal mean and the numbers have dropped dramatically off his MVP season. But on the defensive side of the ball, they’ve been stout once again, ranking 6th and even better against the rush at 3rd. That, for sure, could be a problem for Tennessee who wants to get things going with Derrick Henry early. On the other hand, we have the Titans who’ve made hay on offensive ranking 4th overall and, most importantly, 2nd in their passing attack. This is an important piece here against Baltimore who’ve been worse in their passing defense. All things considered, the Titans have a balanced offensive attack that can exploit holes in the Ravens’ front. Sure, the Titans’ defense has been an issue this season ranking 24th overall. But when it plays out through the numbers, these teams are closer to even than the 6.5 spread would indicate. Take the Titans’ points here in what should be a closer game.   Arizona CardinalsOpponent SEAARI +3.5 ARI +140 Here we have another road team getting points. Let’s take them. This season, home teams have a slight advantage when it comes to scoring, but it’s ever so slight. On the season, they are outscoring visitors by less than half a point per game. It’s not nothing, but it’s a far cry from what we’d seen in say 2018 when that number was more like 2.2. Arizona is coming off the Hail Mary win over the Bills in Week 10 and are now in a three-way tie at the top of the NFC West. They have the best point differential of the group (which includes Seattle) though arguably have played the easiest schedule. But this is still a team with a top-10 defensive DVOA and the 12th ranking on offense. The losses to the Panthers and Lions...

Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 11 Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterbacks Lamar Jackson FD 8400 DK 7300 Opponent TENProj Points FD - 23.36 DK - 23.9 The bad news first. Lamar Jackson hasn’t been anywhere close to what we saw from the electrifying quarterback in 2019. There’s been a steep drop-off this season in the passing yards even though the efficiency has been relatively in the same range. The TDs aren’t keeping pace either, though those numbers were definitely due to regress some from what we saw. Where he’s way behind last season is the rushing yards. Last season he was averaging more than 80 yards per game, but this season it’s only around 52. But that’s ticked up to 71/5 yards per game over the last four and this week he gets a bottom-third defense in the Tennessee Titans. It’s also a big-time pace-up matchup with the Titans allowing the second most opponent plays per game, trailing only Seattle. If there’s a breakout spot for Jackson, this looks like it. We aren’t getting him at any kind of huge discount, but the price has dropped since the beginning of the season. Justin Herbert FD 8500 DK 6800 Opponent NYJProj Points FD - 22.32 DK - 23.43 Since taking over for Tyros Taylor in Week 2, Herbert has been nothing short of fantastic from a fantasy perspective. In fact, in that time span he ranks as QB5 in raw fantasy scoring behind only Murray, Allen, Mahomes and Wilson. That’s such an impressive list and is nothing short of amazing considering he wasn’t even the starter Week 1 and it took a punctured lung to get him in there. The accuracy is decent at 67% but he’s getting it done in the red zone through the air with 19 passing touchdowns as well as on the ground with three rushing TDs. This week the Chargers get the garbage Jets who rank 29th overall in defensive DVOA and dead last against the pass. Herbert’s price has come up for good reason, but he’s still very much a play here in a choice matchup. Alex Smith FD 6600 DK 5300 Opponent CINProj Points FD - 16.78 DK - 17.66 If looking for a cheaper play, especially on DraftKings the hero story of Alex Smith could be a place to turn. Two years from nearly losing his leg and his...

Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 10 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not always the safest plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! QB/WR Stack The Chalk - Jared Goff/Cooper Kupp, Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs, Deshaun Watson/Brandin Cooks, Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams The Pivot Russell Wilson FD 8900 DK 7700 Opponent LAR Proj Points FD - 22.71 DK - 23.16 DK Metcalf FD 8300 DK 7600 Opponent LAR Proj Points FD - 16.35 DK - 19.1 Looking at the buzz around the industry, Week 10 brings us a terrific opportunity to jump on board an elite QB/WR stack that could be the lowest owned we have seen them in some time. The projected low ownership comes from a combination of a below-average matchup for the Seahawks pass game and terrific matchups for the four chalk stacks I listed above. While the matchup is tough vs. Rams who rank 10th in DVOA against the pass and 2nd in fantasy points against both QB and WR, this game has the second-highest total(55.5) on the slate and is primed for a high-scoring game. The Seahawks also own the league's #1 passing offense(298.1 yards per game) Wilson and Metcalf have also been one of the most consistent and highest-upside stacks in the league as they have combined for 40+ DK points in seven of eight games and 50+ in six of eight. I also like the upside when looking at the advanced stats as Wilson is 5th among starting quarterbacks in air yards per attempt and Metcalf is 10th in aDOT(average depth of target) of players with 25+ targets on the season. The results from those opportunities have shown as well as Wilson leads the league in completions of 40+ yards(9) with Metcalf receiving four of those which also leads all wideouts. Both Wilson and Metcalf project to be lower than 10% owned in GPP formats and if that holds as we approach lineup lock, I will be loading up and in search of GPP glory! Running Back The Chalk - Aaron Jones, Mike Davis, Alvin Kamara, Chase Edmonds, James Conner...

Week 10 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 11/12/20 Plenty of NFL betting action to get in on for Week 10 after a 2-1 record in the article. Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time, we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!   Texans Opponent CLEHOU +3It’s tough taking teams who have been, well pretty bad this season. That’s definitely the case with the Texans who fired their head coach/GM midseason and sport a 2-6 record with the only two wins over the lowly Jaguars. That is far from a great resume though it’s worth noting they had a brutal stretch to start the season against the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, and (to some extent) the Vikings.By opposing record, the Texans have the 8th most difficult schedule this season. It’s for sure been a rough go of it. But they remain an above-average DVOA offense and still have Deshaun Watson under center. This is worth something. The defense ranks poorly, but they’ve had the second-hardest schedule in terms of the offensive opponent which does help explain some of that. Meanwhile, the Browns' 5-3 record is a lot of smoke and mirrors. They have a -31 point differential on the season despite the 20th most difficult schedule on the season. Both the offense (17th in DVOA) and defense (19th) are below average this season. Records aside these two teams aren’t all that different with the Houston passing offense making up for the lack of effort on the defensive end. I’m a little concerned with the Houston motivation her considering the record has gone off the rails, but by the numbers, I see this as more of a pick’em. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Opponent CARTB -5.5 It was a rough scene for the Buccaneers in Week 9 with them losing control of the game early against the Saints and ultimately getting dumpstered 38-3. It’s hard to know what to make of that game and whether it’s just a blip on the radar for a team that was 6-2 coming in. It’s not excusable, but one game doesn’t a season make. They struggled to get going on the ground and really couldn’t do anything on offense. But despite that performance, this Bucs team still ranks first overall in DVOA defense on the season and are well above average on offense. This is still a very good team that had a very bad week. Meanwhile, Carolina has sported one of the league’s worst defenses this season, ranking 26th while...

DFS NFL Podcast - Week 10 Game by Game Game Podcast for DraftKings and FanDuel Enjoy our week 10 NFL game by game podcast, where Doug and James discuss the DFS implications of every game on the main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings! Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL, NHL and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Things are certainly a little less certain heading into week 10 than they were in week 9, but we still have a lot to talk about heading into the weekend. There are a number of domino-effect situations, for starters. Which of the Seattle running backs is going to wind up playing, and will we know in time to set our lineups? Will Big Ben play against Cincinnati? What about the running back situations in Cleveland, Houston, and Washington? The list of situations to wade through is nearly endless this week. The most intriguing position this week seems to be wide receiver, where there is a slew of guys in the $5,500-$6,800 range that have similar recent production. The guys go game by game, constantly updating their list of which of these guys they prefer most. All in all, it could be a wild week 10, and this isn't an NFL DFS podcast you're going to want to miss. Love the DFSR podcast? Go ahead and subscribe and listen wherever you get your daily podcasts. Subscribe to this podcast on iTunes Listen on Stitcher Listen on Spotify The DFSR Podcasts are part of the Overtime Media Podcast...