Week 14 NFL Betting Picks and Strategy 12/10/20 We are starting Week 14 off with some action on the Thursday night game between the Rams and the Patriots.   Los Angeles RamsOpponent NERams -4.5 The Patriots are coming off a massive, 45-0 stomping of the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 13. And they have played better of late, winning four of their last five. But two of those wins were against a couple of the worst teams in the league, the Chargers and the Jets. They also somehow dropped one to the Texans. And of course, they still own a bottom-third defense. The Rams are an incredibly balanced team on the season. They rank 4th in offensive DVOA and 5th on defense. And the best part of their offensive game, running the ball, lines up well against the Patriots’ biggest deficiency: stopping the ground game. The Patriots rank 28th against the rush on the season. It stands to reason Sean McVay and company will grind down New England with the rush. All season, New England has tried to grind down teams with their own running game, trying to use Cam Newton’s legs while also leaning on guys like Damien Harris. And of late it’s worked having won four of their last five games. It hasn’t felt great (ever) betting against Bill Belichick, but let’s do it here. WIN   New Orleans SaintsOpponent PHISaints -7 The Saints head into Philadelphia this week with at least one more game of Taysom Hill under center. In the last three weeks, Hill has gone 3-0 though admittedly it wasn’t the toughest run of competition. They beat the Falcons twice and the Denver practice squad once. That being said, it doesn’t get much harder this week against the Eagles and Jalen Hurts’ first start. On the Hill side, there hasn’t been much of a drop-off in the offensive efficiency for the team and though the offense looks different, they’ve still managed to put up points relatively speaking. Meanwhile, the Eagles have struggled this season (understatement) and are now moving to a rookie quarterback in Jalen Hurts. Though Hurts did put tip yards through the air in his Week 13 debut, he was incredibly inefficient going 5-12. The Eagles likely reduce some of their sack issues, but it’s hard to imagine the offense taking a big leap here. New Orleans has the second-best defense in the league and should take advantage of Hurts’s inexperience.   Indianapolis Colts Opponent LVColts -3 Though the Colts and the Raiders are only separated in the standings by one game (Indy 8-5, LV 7-5) the seasons have been very different on paper. The Colts have outscored opponents by 55 points while...

DFS NFL Podcast - Week 14 cash game podcast for DraftKings and FanDuel Enjoy our week 14 NFL cash game podcast, where Doug and James tell you all you need to know about the cash game plays on the main slate for NFL DFS on FanDuel and DraftKings. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL, NHL and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!   James and Doug are back to take an early look at cash game plays for week 14 on FanDuel and DraftKings. It's a weird week for DFS, with very little value to support paying up at some key positions. Doug and James break down how lineups might look different this week than usual. Can we consider going cheap with Jalen Hurts on DraftKings, or should we just pay up for a safer option like Russell Wilson? Running back is odd as well, with Derrick Henry being the obvious big money play, and a bunch of question marks after that. We have James Robinson and Myles Gaskin, but both of them are 7+ point underdogs. Aaron Jones has a great projected game script, but he's likely in a timeshare once again. We're basically just hoping for value to crop up later in the week at this point. Wide receiver is the first position that presents us with exciting options, with both Michael Thomas and Brandon Aiyuk looking comically under-priced at this point. The position rounds out nicely with the Houston situation, and even Corey Davis is AJ Brown were to miss this week. At tight end, we're basically deciding between Travis Kelce, Mike Gesicki, and possibly Anthony Firkser. Right now it looks like our optimizer is prioritizing Kelce, but that could change as the week develops. Love the DFSR podcast? Go ahead and subscribe and listen wherever you get your daily podcasts. Subscribe to this podcast on iTunes Listen on Stitcher Listen on Spotify The DFSR Podcasts are part of the Overtime Media Podcast...

Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 14 Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterbacks Russell Wilson FD 9000 DK 7900 Opponent NYJProj Points FD - 24.27 DK - 24.76 After throwing for touchdowns on what seemed like every pass to start the season, Wilson has slowed down considerably over the last few games. In his last five, he has only six total touchdowns and five interceptions. The Seahawks are 2-3 in that stretch. But this is a bounce back opportunity against the Jets who’ve been destroyed through the air this year. They rank dead last against the pass and allow the second-most yards per pass attempt. They’ve allowed more than 25 DraftKings points to QBs in four of the last five weeks. This is a smash spot for Wilson who remains expensive but is still a cash game play this week. Taysom Hill FD 7700 DK 6600 Opponent PHIProj Points FD - 21.83 DK - 22.5 It looks like Drew Brees is still anoter week from returning meaning Taysom Hill will spend another game under center. Hill is QB6 in FanDuel over the last three weeks and that includes a game against Denver in which the Saints took their foot completely off the gas in the second half. In the last three weeks, he’s averaged 11 carries and 59 yards on the ground, scoring four touchdowns along the way. And he’s been efficient through the air when asked to put the ball up, completing 68% of his passes, finally getting his first throwing touchdown last week. The Eagles defense ranks 15th on the season, but are much worse against the pass at 24th in DVOA. This is still a fine time to grab Hill who has such a high floor because of the rushing ability. Jalen Hurts FD 6600 DK 5100 Opponent NOProj Points FD - 15.69 DK - 16.63 Let’s do this thing, shall we? Hurts will take over for Carson Wentz a week after it was speculated he’d take the reins for Philly. But after Wentz struggled once again, Hurts came in against the Packers and Doug Pederson waited only a day to name him the starter for Week 14. Hurts was inefficient, going 5-12 but did throw for 109 yards and a touchdown. He added, almost more importantly, 29 yards on the ground on five carries. It’s the rushing ability at this price point on DraftKings...

Daily Fantasy NFL Early Look Games to Target for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 14 Welcome back football fans. To start Week 14, I will be taking a look at a couple of games that stand out. This comes early in the week so make sure to check out all of our content as the week rolls on leading up to lineup lock on Sunday. Let's get started. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Game Line --- TEN -7.5 Game Total --- 53 This game doesn't have the highest total of the week but could very well end up with the most points. The first thing that stands out is the defense rank 29th(TEN) and 31st(JAX) in DVOA defense and both rank 25th or worse in fantasy points per game to EVERY positon. At least early on, this makes this matchup easily my top game to stack in GPP formats and you should probably consider multiple pieces for cash games, as well. Here are a few of my top plays: Cash Games Derrick Henry FD 10000 DK 9200 Opponent JAC Proj Points FD - 21.71 DK - 22.67 King Henry is coming off his worst game of the season totaling just 69 yards against the Browns but is easily the top play in this game. The Titans are big favorites and Henry averages over 23 touches per game and has rushed for 100+ in seven of his 12 games. While that gives him an elite floor he also provides elite upside as he has averaged 142.8 rushing yards and 27.5 DraftKings points per game in those seven games. He is also $600 and $700 cheaper than Cook on DraftKings and FandDuel this week so roll him out in all formats. James Robinson FD 7800 DK 7300 Opponent TEN Proj Points FD - 17.4 DK - 19.51 Despite playing on a terrible 1-11 Jaguars team, James Robinson has been extremely productive and placed himself in the Rookie of the Year conversation. He is averaging 21.2 touches(4th most among qualified) and 106.5 yards(5th most) per game and is literally in a terrible game script each and every week. He has broken 100 yards rushing four times this year including against these Titans back in Week 2. The price is much higher this time around but the matchup remains strong as the Titans have given up 100+ yards rushing and 350+ yards total in three of their last four games. GPP Stack Ryan Tannehill FD 7800...

Daily Fantasy NFL GPP Leverage Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 13 The 2020 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered in every area. Earlier in the week, we covered Cash Game Plays, our Top Bets, and looked at Injury Report. Now let's take a look at a few possible low owned GPP plays based on some of the industry buzz and ownership projections. Keep in mind, these are not safe plays and are generally very boom or bust. Roster accordingly. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterback The Chalk - Mitchell Trubisky, Ryan Fitzpatrick The Pivot Philip Rivers FD 7000 DK 5900 Opponent HOU Proj Points FD - 17.19 DK - 18.24 First of all, seeing Mitchell Trubisky being possibly one of the highest owned quarterbacks on this slate makes me want to vomit. That immediately makes me want to pivot in GPP formats and one of those will be Philip Rivers who should not only be low-owned but also provides that salary relief allowing you to load up elsewhere. you never have to worry about volume with Rivers as he comes in averaging 40 pass attempts over his last four games and is on a bit of a heater with five touchdown passes in his last two games. There is no one pass-catcher that is my favorite to stack with Rivers as the target share is fairly spread out between Pittman Jr, Hines, Hilton, and Pascal. Of those, Pittman's target share has been trending the most as he is averaging 6.8 targets per game over the last four weeks. The other part of this leverage play that makes sense is the matchup as the Texans have been much worse against the running back. After missing a week due to COVID, this should enhance the ownership for Jonathan Taylor who is coming off one of his best games but he has been anything but consistent this season. I love pivoting to the pass game and the Texans have allowed the 10th most passing yards and 13th most fantasy points to the QB position. Running Back The Chalk - Nick Chubb, James Robinson, Austin Ekeler The Pivot Aaron Jones FD 8400 DK 7200 Opponent PHI Proj Points FD - 16.24 DK - 17.92 Along with the chalk(high-owned) running backs listed above, you can also include Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry who are likely the two highest owned running backs despite their sky-high price tags. Even with a falling price, Aaron Jones...