DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 7/14/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 6/14/19Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!This is our first Sunday back from the All-Star break and these always make for fascinating slates. What I love about Sunday slates is that we get pretty much every team playing between 1ET and 4ET. That makes things so much easier on us and that's all we can ask for as DFS players. We do have a Coors Field game and Reynaldo Lopez taking the mound, so you know what that means! We prioritized Coors at the expense of pitchng last night and got a 26 run game, but can we go back to the well today? Let's find out.PitchersJustin Verlander FD - P 10500 DK - SP 12200 Opponent - TEX (Ariel Jurado) Park - TEXFD - 41.22 DK - 23.88We're going big with our two starting pitchers. The simple fact is, Verlander is one of the best pitchers of my generation and he's in the midst of yet another stellar season. That's evident by his 2.98 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 153 Ks. Those are easily some of the best numbers in the league and it really makes him attractive against a Rangers club who owns the worst K rate in the Majors. Pitching in Globe Life Park certainly isn't easy, but you're getting Verlander at a discount, and he does have a 2.78 ERA and 1.08 career WHIP against Texas. Not to mention, he enters this game as a -220 favorite.Jacob deGrom FD - P 10800 DK - SP 10800 Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - MIAFD - 40.69 DK - 22.91deGrom is easily my favorite play on the board and he should roll right through this cupcake lineup. Let's start with deGrom, who currently ranks top-three in ERA, xFIP and WHIP dating back to last season. He also has a K rate approaching 32 percent in that span, and he's truly one of the most dominant aces in the game. Facing this offense is a treat too, with the Marlins ranking 29th in runs scored and dead-last in OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA. That doesn't even take into consideration that deGrom is a -210 favorite, with Marlins Park being the one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball. Masahiro Tanaka is a good pitcher two option on DraftKings as a projected -240 favorite against a bad Blue Jays offense. Catcher/First BaseJoey Votto FD - 1B 3700 Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COLFD - 16.07 DK - 12.04Votto deserves more credit than he's getting...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 7/13/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 7/13/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Chris Sale FD - P 10700 DK - SP 10500 Opponent - LAD (Ross Stripling) Park - BOS FD - 38.36 DK - 22.05 The people who have stuck with us throughout this DFS MLB season aren't going to be thrilled with this one, possibly. Sale's 4.05 ERA is the worst of his career, and he's seen a decline in each of his major stats this year. But this is where stats can be a little bit deceiving. While his strikeouts are down a bit, his 12.87 K/9 is still the second best in the Majors among starting pitchers. While his 2.19 BB/9 is higher than last year, it's still the 23rd lowest among starters. His 3.12 xFIP is worse than last year's, but it's still good for the 5th best in the Majors. All this to say, Chris Sale is still pretty damned good. The match-up with the Dodgers is far from ideal - they have the 9th best wOBA vs. lefties this year and are about league average when it comes to striking out. Still, Sale is a -165 favorite with the 2nd best strikeout stuff in the Majors, and our system sees him as a cash game play particularly because his prices are still too low. Jake Odorizzi FD - P 8900 DK - SP 7700 Opponent - CLE (Trevor Bauer) Park - CLE FD - 34.17 DK - 18.25 I mulled over what to do about this pitcher two slot for a while before deciding on Odorizzi, so let's take a look at why this felt like such a tough decision. First, the good bits. Odorizzi has actually increased his K/9 to an elite 9.74 while bringing his BB/9 down to a respectable 3.05. His 3.15 ERA is a career best. The problem is that he's still rocking a mid-4s xFIP on account of his absurdly low 30.9% ground ball rate, which is good for the second lowest in the Majors. What this means is that you'll get some pretty hit or miss starts with Odorizzi. When those fly balls land in gloves he's going to look incredible, but when they clear the wall he'll look pretty pedestrian. I hesitate to recommend him for cash games for just this reason, but it's hard to argue with this price on DraftKings. The Indians are a stock league average match-up, with exactly the 15th best wOBA against righties and a below...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 7/7/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 6/7/19Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!This is the final DFS slate before the All-Star break, so let's end the first-half strong. What is interesting about this day is that we might see some players resting, so be sure to check in on all the lineups to avoid any critical mistakes.PitchersDavid Price FD - P 9100 DK - SP 9800 Opponent - DET (Gregory Soto) Park - DETFD - 37.42 DK - 20.17The pitching selections aren't pretty on this slate but Price is a nice value (no pun intended). The reason we really like him here is because of his recent form, with the Boston lefty pitching to a 2.65 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over his last three starts. That's all you can ask for from a guy in such a good matchup, with the Tigers holding the 6th highest K rate and the 4th lowest wOBA against left handed pitchers. That's one of the major reasons why Price enters this game as a -275 favorite. Ross Stripling FD - P 6600 DK - SP 7700 Opponent - SD (Joey Lucchesi) Park - LADFD - 29.69 DK - 15.95Stripling just re-entered the starting rotation for the Dodgers due to a Rich Hill injury and we're going to keep betting on him until he gets above $8,000 on both sites. The reason for that is because Stripling is generating a 3.16 ERA and 1.21 WHIP dating back to the start of last season. Stripling has been even better at home, providing a 2.46 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at home for his career. He's doing that while striking out more than a batter per-inning and that doesn't even take into consideration that he pitches for one of the best lineups in baseball in one of the most pitcher-friendly environments. San Diego is a fantastic match-up too, with the Padres ranking 25th in runs scored and 27th in K rate. Not to mention, Stripling enters this game as a -165 favorite. He's a great value option if you play an all day slate today.Our projection system also loves Patrick Corbin as a -245 favorite against a bad offense like the Kansas City Royals. Catcher/First BaseJoey Votto FD - 1B 3100 DK - 1B 3900 Opponent - CLE (Trevor Bauer) Park - CINFD - 11.35 DK - 8.51Votto has quietly been one of the hottest hitters in the league over recent weeks and the price simply hasn't caught up to his production. Over his last 33 games, Votto is hitting...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 7/6/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 7/6/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Gerrit Cole FD - P 11500 DK - SP 11100 Opponent - LAA (Andrew Heaney) Park - HOU FD - 41.23 DK - 23.15 Well, we're looking at back to back days where we have to consider a right handed ace against a team we'd really rather not run right handed pitchers against. Cole is every bit the ace Verlander is, if not more. His 13.21 K/9 and 2.68 xFIP are both the very best in the Majors, and he's truly looking unstoppable right now. The only issue I have with this play is those pesky Angels. They own the 8th best wOBA against right handed pitching, and while a lot of that is bottled up in Mike Trout, they also strike out at the lowest rate in the bigs against northpaws. Still, when you have the best strikeout pitcher in the Majors, you don't sweat that sort of thing. I'd be content running Cole in any format. Kenta Maeda FD - P 6700 DK - SP 7700 Opponent - SD (Chris Paddack) Park - LAD FD - 32.84 DK - 17.42 It's a clear step down talent wise from Cole, of course, but it's a big jump down in price as well. And hey, you have to run two pitchers on DraftKings, am I right? I am not a big fan of Maeda's underlying skills this year. While he's still striking out more than a batter per inning, he's striking out two fewer guys per nine than he was last year. He's also seen a decrease in his ground-ball rate, and his 4.41 xFIP is below league average. All that being said, the match-up and park are good enough here that you're not just going to turn your back. The Padres have gotten some inspired performances from Tatis Jr. and Machado (since June), but they still own the league's highest strikeout rate against righties with a bottom 10 wOBA. Maeda just can't have as much upside as Cole based on their profiles, but he's a fine option in a world where there's no such thing as a sure thing. Also considered: Robbie Ray, for upside. Catcher/First Base Wilson Ramos FD - C 2500 DK - C 4200 Opponent - PHI (Jake Arrieta) Park - NYM FD - 9.91 DK - 7.61 I'm not fan of having to play catchers, but if you absolutely must you can run Ramos. He's posting a career...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/4/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/4/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Early Brandon Woodruff FD - P 9800 DK - SP 9400 Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - CIN FD - 33.38 DK - 17.76 We have a very interesting Independence Day ahead of us with so many different slates but for the early slate, I am looking at Brandon Woodruff as my top option. After spending most of 2018 in the bullpen, he is back as a full-time starter for the Brewers and has been tremendous with a 10-2 record backed up by a 3.79 ERA/3.38 xFIP and 29% K rate. Despite pitching in Great American today, he gets a plus matchup against a bottom 10 Reds offense that has been worse against righties with a .303 wOBA, 82 wRC+, and 24 % K rate. It comes down to price as he is sub $10K on both sites and my top pitcher in all formats. Also Consider: Anibal Sanchez(WAS) for the very early slate in a great matchup against the Marlins Main Hyun-Jin Ryu FD - P 10800 DK - SP 11100 Opponent - SD (Dinelson Lamet) Park - LAD FD - 40.11 DK - 22.13 Ryu is coming off his worst start of the season and it came in Coors where even the most elite pitchers are getting beat up. Speaking of elite status, Ryu leads the league with an eye-popping 1.83 ERA and backs it up with the third-best xFIP(3.06) as well. He is finding a ton of success with an above average fastball(42% usage) and elite changeup(29% usage) that opponents have hit just .185 on and is also producing an elite 18.8% swinging strike rate. The matchup is definitely not jumping off the page as the Padres have been better lately overall and have also been better against lefties but the upside is there as they do strike out(25.6%) much more in the split. The other options on this small slate don't really pop for me so I will a ton of exposure to Ryu in all formats. Also Consider: Lance Lynn(TEX) Catcher/First Base Early Anthony Rizzo FD - 1B 4100 DK - 1B 4600 Opponent - PIT (Jordan Lyles) Park - PIT FD - 12.73 DK - 9.59 Jason Castro FD - C 2600 DK - C 3800 Opponent - OAK (Tanner Anderson) Park - OAK FD - 8.54 DK - 6.45 If you have the salary on the early slate, Josh Bell is the easy play but...