DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/8/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/8/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Matthew Boyd FD - P 10400 DK - SP 11200 Opponent - KC (Undecided) Park - DET FD - 38.16 DK - 21.3 Despite a smaller slate on Thursday, we have a selection of pitchers at the top. I love the upside with Chris Sale but he is GPP only for me until further notice. Mike Clevinger has flashed the most upside this season with a 36.9% K rate but draws a tough matchup in the Twins so is also GPP only for me. For cash games, I will be looking at two pitchers and it starts with Matt Boyd who has found his form again allowing two or fewer earned runs in three straight starts while striking out eight or more in each(27 total). The price is climbed to a near season-high again but making me more comfortable about it is the matchup against the Royals who have not only struggled against lefties(.287 wOBA, 75 wRC+) but have also been slumping big-time lately as well(.275 wOBA, 67 wRC+). I will have exposure to Boyd in all formats on FanDuel but in GPP only on DraftKings as I like the discount with the next option. Aaron Nola FD - P 10800 DK - SP 10600 Opponent - SF (Madison Bumgarner) Park - SF FD - 35.38 DK - 19.26 Nola is the option I will be looking to on DraftKings tonight at a price $600 cheaper than Boyd. The game also has the lowest total(7.5) on the slate and like Boyd, Nola has really found form lately holding opponents to one or fewer earned runs in seven of his last nine starts(1.91 ERA/3.75 xFIP) while averaging just shy of seven innings per start. The win will be tough to come by with MadBum on the other side of the game but I give the edge to the Phillies offense as the Giants have fielded a bottom-five offense all season and sit with just an 82 wRC+ over the last two weeks. All things considered, Nola will be a core play for me tonight in all formats. Also Consider: Dallas Keuchel(ATL) as a top SP2 option on DraftKings as a -200 favorite against the Marlins bottom three offense Catcher/First Base Carlos Santana FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 4700 Opponent - MIN (Kyle Gibson) Park - MIN FD - 11.29 DK - 8.42 If you can afford him, Freddie Freeman is far and...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 8/7/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 8/7/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Wednesday brings a full day of baseball action with varying early slates between the sites and a small four-game main slate. In this article, I will be looking at my core play from the early slate and providing an option to consider for the main slate. Let's get started. Pitchers Gerrit Cole FD - P 11800 DK - SP 11900 Opponent - COL (Peter Lambert) Park - HOU FD - 49.11 DK - 27.76 We have two elite pitchers taking the bump on the early slate but with Clevinger likely having to deal with rain in the forecast, the decision is fairly easy at the top. Going back all the way to the end of May, Cole has been out of this world holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 12 of 13 starts while striking out 116(35.4%) and walking just 22(6.7%). While the Rockies have somewhat heated up lately(116 wRC+ last seven days), they have the biggest gap in terms of home/road splits(.284 wOBA, 71 wRC+ on the road) and Cole is an elite ace that has shut down top offenses all season. He is my top pitcher in all formats. *Update-a rainout last night takes Clevinger off this slate as last night's matchup between Plesac and Jurado will carry over* Dustin May FD - P 5800 DK - SP 7500 Opponent - STL (Jack Flaherty) Park - LAD FD - 27.41 DK - 13.83 It was a very positive debut for Dustin May last Friday and while he allowed three earned runs, they came in the fifth inning at the end of his outing. It was also positive seeing him get a bit of a leash as he ended up throwing 97 pitches and despite just three strikeouts he generated over a 50% groundball rate. Today, he arguably gets an even better matchup against a slumping Cardinals team that entered Tuesday night losers of six of their last eight games and have posted a disastrous 60 wRC+ and 27.7% K rate over the last seven days(89 wRC+, 24% K rate last 14 days). May is my top SP2 on DraftKings and also makes an excellent punt play for GPP formats on FanDuel allowing you to load up on whatever stack you wish. Main Slate Consideration: James Paxton(NYY) who is underpriced considering the slate size and elite matchup against the Orioles Catcher/First Base Ji-Man Choi FD - 1B 3300 DK -...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 8/4/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 8/4/19Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW!After wild trade deadline and a crazy week, we're finally to Sunday! Now that this wild week is over, it's time to get back into the everyday grind. What's fascinating about this slate is that we have a ton of great pitching options and an abundance of dangerous bats. That means finding value will be key and we'll do our best to stray you towards some of those plays. PitchersJustin Verlander FD - P 12000 DK - SP 12000 Opponent - SEA (Matt Wisler) Park - HOUFD - 41.49 DK - 23.96It's going to be tough to fade Velrnader on this slate. This dude is straight nails anytime he takes the mound and you have to love him in a matchup like this. Let's start with the Mariners, as they currently rank bottom-10 in OPS, xSLG, wOBA and xwOBA since the opening month. That's particularly scary considering they own the third-worst K rate in the league. That's a nightmare against a guy like Verlander, who's currently pitching to a 2.73 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 34 percent K rate this season in what's become a Hall-of-Fame career. Not to mention, Verlander is projected to be a -300 favorite in this game. He's a great play in any format.Shane Bieber FD - P 11200 DK - SP 10900 Opponent - LAA (Jaime Barria) Park - CLEFD - 38.45 DK - 21.01Bieber has been one of the best pitchers in the AL and it's not a crazy statement to say he's the best Indians pitcher at this point. Many people would have said he's the fourth-best pitcher in this rotation at the beginning of the year and that's a testament to just how good this guy has been. We're talking about a pitcher with a 3.40 ERA and 1.01 WHIP while generating a 31 percent K rate. His last nine starts have been even more absurd, with Bieber posting a 2.57 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in that span while striking out 78 batters across 63 innings. That's why he'll enter this game as a -200 favorite. It's one of the feel good stories of the year, and a great reminder of why we're often projecting future ERA with xFIP instead of ERA itself - as Bieber had one of the widest splits acrooss these two categories last year.We also love Patrick Corbin hosting his former team as a -190 favorite. Catcher/First BaseDaniel Murphy FD - 1B 3500 DK - 1B 4800 Opponent - SF...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/1/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/1/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Early Zack Wheeler FD - P 9600 DK - SP 10400 Opponent - CHW (Dylan Cease) Park - CHW FD - 34.32 DK - 18.06 Michael Pineda FD - P 9300 DK - SP 9300 Opponent - MIA (Jordan Yamamoto) Park - MIA FD - 28.58 DK - 14.62 Despite only four games on the early slate(three on FanDuel), I really don't mind the pitching options. Let's start with Zach Wheeler who didn't end up getting traded yesterday and will now make his 21st start of the season. Things have been very up and down for Wheeler who enters with a 4.71 xFIP but the good news is that the xFIP(3.84) is almost a full run lower to go with his above-average 26% K rate and he is also allowing a low 33.9% hard contact rate and an average exit velocity of 87.2 mph (via Baseball Savant). Michael Pineda has a fairly rough start to the season(6.21 ERA/5.08 xFIP first six starts) but has been solid since allowing more than three earned runs in just one of his last 14 starts(3.62 ERA/4.30 xFIP). He has also seen a slight increase in K rate(23.6%) in that time with a low 4.8% walk rate and 1.07 WHIP. Both pitchers have plus matchups today as Wheeler is a -160 favorite going up against the White Sox who have a 26% K rate and 84 wRC+ against righties and have struggled with a 67 wRC+ and 29% K rate over the last 14 days overall. Pineda sits as a -155 favorite against arguably the league's worst offense in the Marlins who have a 75 wRC+ and 25% K rate against righties and a 54 wRC+ and 27% K rate over the last 14 days. Both pitchers are in play in all formats today. Main Clayton Kershaw FD - P 11400 DK - SP 10700 Opponent - SD (Joey Lucchesi) Park - LAD FD - 36.86 DK - 19.93 On the main slate, while Gerrit Cole has arguably been the best pitcher in baseball this season I will be riding with Clayton Kershaw for a couple of reasons. He is a slightly bigger favorite(-195), in a game with a total(7.5) a full run lower, and he also gets the much better matchup. While Cole faces a red-hot Indians team that is striking out under 20% over the last few weeks, Kershaw gets the Padres who have been league...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 7/31/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 7/31/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Jacob deGrom FD - P 12000 DK - SP 11800 Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - CHW FD - 38.63 DK - 21.9 The top tier is somewhat loaded tonight and deGrom leads the way in terms of raw points projections. Since being roughed up by the Marlins back in the middle of May, he has returned to elite status holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 11 of his last 12 starts(2.10 ERA/3.26 xFIP) with a 31.7% K rate and 15.2% swinging-strike rate. He now gets arguably the best matchup on the board as a -163 favorite going up against a White Sox team that has scored a league-low 51 runs since the All-Star break with an ugly 26.7% K rate. The decision on FanDuel is a lot closer with deGrom's price hitting $12K but on DraftKings, he is easily my top pitcher on this slate in all formats. Jose Berrios FD - P 10400 DK - SP 10700 Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - MIA FD - 37.28 DK - 19.58 The pivot for me on FanDuel, at least in cash games, will be Jose Berrios. He is coming off an excellent start on the road against the aforementioned White Sox and now gets another plus matchup against a Marlins team who have been equally as bad in the second half(.284 wOBA, 77 wRC+) and rank second to last with a .282 wOBA and 76 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. I am not willing to pay up for him in cash games on DraftKings with a K rate 10% lower than deGrom but on FanDuel the price gap is larger making him a target for me in all formats. Vince Velasquez FD - P 7500 DK - SP 7500 Opponent - SF (Jeff Samardzija) Park - PHI FD - 25.39 DK - 13.08 Jose Urquidy FD - P 8000 DK - SP 7000 Opponent - CLE (Zach Plesac) Park - CLE FD - 33.39 DK - 17.34 The reason I am so high on deGrom on DraftKings at a near $12K price tag is the value options that are on the slate and these two are most definitely my favorites. I wrote up Velasquez in his last start and he didn't let us down going 5.2 allowing the Tigers just four hits while striking out nine(31.2 DK/50 FD points). At his current price, he only needs about half...