DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/29/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/29/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Early Jose Berrios FD - P 8800 DK - SP 9900 Opponent - CHW (Dylan Cease) Park - CHW FD - 34.94 DK - 18.47 On a smaller slate like this, paying up for an ace like Clevinger is going to be tough which has me taking the discount with Berrios, at least in cash games. His last start looks a lot worse than the boxscore shows as he was cruising through five innings before a couple of singles, a poorly fielded ball in the outfield, and home run had him exit early in the 6th and eventually picking up the loss. I am not concerned here as he gets another plus matchup against a White Sox team that ranks near the bottom of the league in hitting over the last 30 days and against right-handed pitching for the season. Under $10K on both sites, Berrios is my top play in all formats today. Also Consider: Chris Bassitt(OAK) Main Jacob deGrom FD - P 11200 DK - SP 12000 Opponent - CHC (Jon Lester) Park - NYM FD - 40.66 DK - 22.97 There are six games on the main slate making it a bit easier to pay up at pitcher and that is good news as every other top pitcher has struggled lately. Struggling is something Jacob deGrom hasn't experienced much of this season as he has held opponents to three or fewer earned runs in 23 of his 26 starts and two or fewer earned runs in nine straight starts. That gives him the third-best ERA(2.56) and fourth-best xFIP(3.20) in baseball and he also gives us big upside with a 31.9% K rate and 15.7% swinging-strike rate. The Cubs got to Syndergaard last night but that doesn't overly concern me as they have been well below average(.302 wOBA, 83 wRC+, 25% K rate) over the last 30 days. All things considered, I will be loading up on deGrom in all formats. Also Consider: Lance Lynn(TEX) Catcher/First Base Early Carlos Santana FD - 1B 4100 DK - 1B 4600 Opponent - DET (Daniel Norris) Park - DET FD - 12.68 DK - 9.45 There are three teams I am targeting on this small four-game early slate and it starts with the Indians who currently sit atop the raw points projections today. Santana has been very up and down lately but when he gets on the scoresheet he makes it count as he...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 8/28/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 8/28/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Gerrit Cole FD - P 12000 DK - SP 12200 Opponent - TB (Ryan Yarbrough) Park - HOU FD - 43.97 DK - 24.83 With Max Scherzer admitting he is "not out of the woods" with his back injury and unable to give 100% it makes it an easy choice for me at the top of the salary tonight. Not only does Gerrit Cole enter tonight with the fifth-best ERA(2.75) in baseball but he backs it up with a league-leading 2.76 xFIP after holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in six straight and 14 of his last 15 starts. With double-digit K numbers in five of his last seven starts and 14 times on the season, he also leads the league with an eye-popping 37.3% K rate. The Rays are slightly better against righties and don't K as much(22%) but I will take the elite pitcher over the average offense every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Fire up Cole in all formats. Jake Odorizzi FD - P 8500 DK - SP 9400 Opponent - CHW (Ross Detwiler) Park - CHW FD - 29.66 DK - 15.9 Getting bats you are comfortable with in cash games is the challenge with Cole and if there are not enough values popping up when lineups come out, I will most likely be turning to Odorizzi. he is nowhere near the same level of talent as Cole but from a PTS/$ perspective, it is a very close call on both sites. He was solid in his first season with the Twins and has improved on that in year two as he enters the night with a 3.57 ERA and while the xFIP(4.71) is over a run higher his xwOBA(.306) is right in stride with his wOBA(.300) telling me the regression curve isn't nearly as steep. The other promising aspect outside of the plus matchup vs. the White Sox is the K upside he has displayed in 2019 with a career-high 25% K rate and supporting 12.1% swinging-strike rate. Odorizzi will be in my player pool in all formats and with the salary savings allows us to load up on bats. Kenta Maeda FD - P 8700 DK - SP 8000 Opponent - SD (Undecided) Park - SD FD - 30.08 DK - 16.06 Maeda is a much better play on DraftKings but still a play that stands out across the board tonight. As...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 8/25/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 8/25/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! We've been killing it with our picks recently and we're hoping to keep that momentum going here. Sundays are always tricky though because it's a great day to rest your studs after a long week. That does open up value though and it'll be critical to monitor lineup developments as they're released. Pitchers Stephen Strasburg FD 10100 DK 11300 Opponent - CHC (Cole Hamels) Park - CHCFD - 36.87 DK - 20.35 While this is a tough matchup, it's really tough to fade Strasburg the way he's pitching right now. A 3.65 ERA and 1.08 WHIP speak for itself, but he's actually probably even been better than those numbers suggest, with a 3.34 xFIP and 29 percent K rate. Those elite peripherals tell us that he's been slightly unlucky this season and he's truly in the mix for an NL Cy Young with his stellar numbers. It's not like the Cubs are the scariest matchup either, with Chicago ranked 19th in K rate, 14th in runs scored and 15th in xwOBA. That doesn't even take into consideration that Wrigley Field ranks in the bottom-5 in park factor, making it one of the best parks to pitch in. Aaron Nola FD 10700 DK 11000 Opponent - MIA (Elieser Hernandez) Park - MIAFD - 38.19 DK - 20.82 This play is pretty simple. Any time you get an elite pitcher facing the Marlins, you use them! Nola is just that, as he's recaptured his All-Star form since the opening months. Over his last 12 starts, Nola is pitching to a 2.13 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 10.1 K/9 rate. Those are shocking numbers from a player whose prices has never recovered, particularly in such a tasty matchup. In fact, the Marlins currently rank either 29th or dead-last in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA. That was evident when Nola pitched eight one-run innings in his last start against Miami while striking out 10 batters. Not to mention, Nola enters this matchup as a projected -200 favorite. Catcher/First Base Josh VanMeter FD 2700 DK 4000 Opponent - PIT (Dario Agrazal) Park - PITFD - 10.06 DK - 7.71 While I'd rather use VanMeter at second base on DraftKings, this $2,700 price on FanDuel is absolutely ridiculous. This dude has been raking since being recalled from the minors and it's really no surprise when you see his Triple-A numbers. At that level this season, JVM provided a .429 OBP,...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 8/24/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 8/24/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Mike Clevinger FD - P 11200 DK - SP 11800 Opponent - KC (Glenn Sparkman) Park - CLE FD - 41.92 DK - 22.99 One of the league's unassuming aces, Clevinger has been truly stellar in the 73 innings he's pitched so far this year. He was already good last year, but adding 4 K/9 and increasing that rate to a ridiculous 13 Ks per 9 has pulled his xFIP down more than a run this season. He's coming off a brutal three game stretch against three of the league's offenses in Minnesota, Boston, and New York, and he managed 25 Ks against 5 BBs over that stretch. He'll face no such juggernaut here, as the Royals have posted the league's 4th lowest wOBA in the Majors vs. right handed pitching this season. Clevinger is a high floor, high ceiling option, and is the clear starting pitcher one on this slate as best I can tell. Chris Bassitt FD - P 8300 DK - SP 9600 Opponent - SF (Madison Bumgarner) Park - OAK FD - 32.96 DK - 17.45 A familiar name in our pitcher two discussions this season, Bassitt has established himself as a reasonably priced mid-tier starter that's playable in certain match-ups. His 8.42 K/9 is nothing to write home about, but it's plenty at these prices in a good match-up. The Giants certainly qualify there. In 2019 they've mustered the fifth worse wOBA against right handed pitching in the majors, while striking out a league average rate. Bassitt has a 3.81 FIP at home this year, and getting a plus spot against the G-men makes this a high floor (if not super high ceiling) pitcher two play on DraftKings. Catcher/First Base Yasmani Grandal FD - C 3100 DK - C 4100 Opponent - ARI (Zac Gallen) Park - MIL FD - 11.34 DK - 8.46 Catcher is always a little bit weird, in that you're often picking between a small handful of legitimately good hitters and a bunch of bums. Today, I submit that you should play one of the decent hitters. Grandal is second the majors in catcher WAR (behind JT Realmuto), and his excellent approach (15.7% BB rate) has made him a popular high floor cash game play all season long. It's not a dream spot against Zac Gallen, who was a top 100 prospect with excellent stuff going into this season. Gallen's double digit K/9 is...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 8/23/19
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 8/23/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! It's very rare that we don't get a full 15-game slate on a Friday but that's the case here. We still do have 13 games in the night slate though and that is still a good amount to play DFS. What's interesting about this slate is that we have the Astros facing one of the worst lefties in the league. That means many of these guys will find their way into this article and we'll do our best to pair them with value plays. Pitchers Jose Berrios FD - P 8900 DK - SP 10000 Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - MIN FD - 39.48 DK - 21.08 Wow, this Berrios FanDuel price is absolutely fantastic. I was sure that we'd be looking at a five-figure number but we're actually getting quite the discount. A couple of bad starts recently is what's lowered that number but we're still talking about one of the best pitchers around. That's evident by his 3.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 rate. That pairs beautifully with the fact that he's thrown at least 5,2 innings in 23 of his 25 starts this season and six innings seem like a guarantee against an offense like this. In fact, the Motor City Kitties currently rank bottom-two in runs scored, OBP, OPS, xwOBA and K rate. That's why Berrios and the Twinkies enter this matchup as a -220 favorite. Lance Lynn FD - P 9700 DK - SP 10500 Opponent - CHW (Dylan Cease) Park - CHW FD - 38.31 DK - 20.78 If you would have told me that Lynn was a $10,000 player at the beginning of the year, I would have told you you're crazy. If you would have told me that I would recommend him at this price, I would tell you that you're certifiably insane. We're at that point though and it's far from crazy to say that because of his bounceback season. Over his last 19 starts, Lynn is pitching to a 2.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 rate. Those are ridiculous numbers in a hitter's haven like Globe Life Park and anytime he gets to pitch on the road, we have to be even more encouraged. All of that puts him in consideration but facing a White Sox team who ranks 28th in runs scored, 27th in OPS, 26th in K rate and 25th in xwOBA makes him one of the best...