DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/19/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/19/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Yu Darvish FD - P 11200 DK - SP 9200 Opponent - ATL (Kyle Muller) Park - ATL FD - 33.59 DK - 18.86 Buckle up tonight if you fall into the recency bias category as my top pitchers both went into the All-Star break struggling. The good news here is that both were All-Stars and have been very consistent overall. Darvish's short outing vs. the Nats can be attributed to hip inflammation which also put him on the 10-day IL but he is back healthy, with no restrictions, and gets a matchup vs. the Acuna-less Braves. This is also a buy-low opportunity as he is at his lowest price since early in the season. Darvish tops our projections and is my favorite pitcher in all formats. Kyle Gibson FD - P 9100 DK - SP 9000 Opponent - DET (Casey Mize) Park - DET FD - 31.91 DK - 17.27 Gibson bookended the first half with terrible starts(5 ER in each) but the good news is it was the work in between that earned him a spot on the All-Star team. Even with those two bad starts, he still held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 14 of 17 starts good for a 2.29 ERA which is 5th-best in baseball. He opens his second half against a Tigers team that has won three straight but I am not worried as they rank bottom 10 in almost all offensive categories including wOBA, wRC+, and ISO. Gibson is in play in all formats. Catcher/First Base Yuli Gurriel FD - 1B 2700 DK - 1B 4700 Opponent - CLE (J.C. Mejía) Park - HOU FD - 12.32 DK - 9.45 First article for me out of the ASB so of course I have to go with one of my favorite plays all season in terms of PTS/$ value. I have mentioned over and over that Yuli is having a career year at age 37 as he enters the night hitting .314 with an elite .379 OBP and 137 wRC+. He and the Astros not only get a plus matchup against JC Mejia who has given up six earned runs in three of his last four starts, Gurriel's price continues to sit below $5K on DraftKings making him a core play for me in all formats. Anthony Rizzo FD - 1B 3100 DK - 1B 3700 Opponent - STL (Jake Woodford)...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 7/9/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 7/9/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Charlie Morton FD 10000 DK 9600 Opponent - MIA (Zach Thompson) Park - MIA FD - 34.54 DK - 18.93 This very well may be the worst pitching slate of the season and makes our decision to fade a high-priced ace very easy as there aren't any. We still have to roster a pitcher(two on DraftKings) and for me, it starts with Charlie Morton who has been providing nice PTS/$ value but now gets a monster price which is mostly relative to the options on this slate. While he did get hit around by these very Marlins in his last start, the matchup is on the plus side as they do rank bottom 10 in almost all offensive categories. This game also has the lowest total(7.5) on the slate and with strikeouts being king Morton gives us a 5-7 K floor. All things considered, he is my top pitcher on this slate and in play in all formats. Taijuan Walker FD - P 9500 DK - SP 9000 Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - NYM FD - 34.68 DK - 18.72 Walker got pushed up a day due to a rainout yesterday and has been terrific lately holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts(2.90 ERA/3.10 xFIP) with a 30% K rate. The Pirates don't strike out a lot(22% vs. RH pitching) which does limit the upside here but overall they rank as a bottom 5-10 offense giving Walker a nice PTS/$ floor in the $9K range on both sites. Kenta Maeda FD - P 7300 DK - SP 7100 Opponent - DET (Matt Manning) Park - MIN FD - 29.85 DK - 15.93 With an overall lack of serviceable options on this slate, I was a little surprised to see Maeda as a -205 favorite in the low $7K range on DraftKings. His first half has been a complete roller coaster ride but the good news is that he is coming off his best start of the season going six innings in KC allowing just two hits and no runs while striking out 10 and walking just one. If he limits the walks, he can easily get into the 6th inning giving him a very high PTS/$ floor and ceiling. Lock in the value at SP2 in all formats. Catcher/First Base Matt Olson FD 3700 DK 5400 Opponent - TEX (Jordan...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/8/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/8/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Taijuan Walker FD - P 9500 DK - SP 8400 Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - NYM FD - 33.32 DK - 18.1 Not going to lie. I am getting tired of being burned by elite-priced pitching and making the decision to fade those top ones is much easier tonight as they are facing each other(Max vs. Yu). I will be going with a much more balanced approach and it starts with Walker who has been terrific lately holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts(2.90 ERA/3.10 xFIP) with a 30% K rate. The Pirates don't strike out a lot(22% vs. RH pitching) but rank as a bottom-five offense overall leading to the Mets being big -195 favorites and Walker one of my favorite pitchers on this slate. Alek Manoah FD - P 10300 DK - SP 6800 Opponent - BAL (Keegan Akin) Park - BAL FD - 33.44 DK - 18.38 This is mostly a DraftKings-only play as he is massively underpriced, especially considering the rookie is coming off his best start of the season. It was also his longest outing(7 IP) and against a tough Rays team that he struck out 10 times. He now has a season-low price tag(since his debut) facing a bottom 10 offense in the Orioles who are also much worse against righties with an 84 wRC+ and 25% K rate. Manoah is my top, and likely chalk, SP2 on DraftKings and makes a nice high upside/low owned GPP pivot on FanDuel. Catcher/First Base Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD - 1B 4700 DK - 1B 6000 Opponent - BAL (Keegan Akin) Park - BAL FD - 16.83 DK - 12.77 The Blue Jays are like a super team tonight as they are easily the highest projected offense and despite being very expensive aren't too hard to fit if using Manoah as your SP2. While the lineup is stacked top to bottom it revolves around Valddy who is having an MVP-like first half hitting .344 with 28 home runs and 72 RBI. He and the Jays now get a matchup against a struggling Keegan Akin who has given up 6+ hits and 4+ earned runs in four straight starts. If you needed more convincing, Vladdy has destroyed lefties to the tune of a .409 wOBA and 159 wRC+. You know what to do! Eric Haase FD - C...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/5/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/5/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Brandon Woodruff FD - P 11400 DK - SP 10400 Opponent - NYM (Tylor Megill) Park - NYM FD - 36.32 DK - 20.76 After laying an egg in Coors back in mid-June, Woodruff has gotten back to his dominant self allowing just one earned run in each of his last two starts while striking out 17 batters. They were both plus matchups(ARI. CHC) but the good news is that they get another one tonight as they go into one of the best pitchers parks in Citi Field. He faces an inconsistent Mets team that has scored the third-fewest runs since the start of June while striking out 25% of the time. I know top pitchers have been shaky since the whole "stick stuff" ban but Woodruff is one pitcher it seems to have not affected. Either way, he is in a great spot and my top pitcher in all formats. Joe Musgrove FD - P 9600 DK - SP 8700 Opponent - WSH (Jon Lester) Park - SD FD - 35.86 DK - 19.44 I completely understand if you want to fade or at least be underweight on Woodruff and if that is the case, Joe Musgrove has a projection very close to Woodruff but comes with a much lower price tag. While he is coming off a dud against the Reds(5 ER), he has been consistent all year entering the night with a 2.63 ERA/3.29 xFIP and the upside we seen in 2020(33% K rate) has carried over into this season(30%). He faces a Nats team that has been struggling in the short term losing four straight and will be without Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber on Monday. Musgrove has huge win expectation as a -210 favorite and is one of our top PTS/$ plays on the mound. Catcher/First Base Salvador Perez FD 3200 DK 5000 Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - CIN FD - 12.47 DK - 9.48 Ryan O'Hearn FD 2600 DK 3200 Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - CIN FD - 10.8 DK - 8.08 This is one of the first articles I have written in a long time where one of the Top 5 offenses in baseball wasn't also the top projected team on the slate. That honor goes to the Kansas City Royals tonight in a great spot vs. Gutierrez who has given up 6+ hits in four of his last...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday, 7/1/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday, 7/1/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! This week has been crazy. It feels like Shohei Ohtani, Joey Gallo, and Kyle Schwarber homer every day, with the league OPS creeping up by 15 points in a one-week span. That's an indicator of how much the ball is flying right now, and you probably understand by the heat across the country. That means finding the right pitchers is more critical than ever, and there's 3-4 guys we absolutely love on this slate. Let's go ahead and start with two of those players! Pitchers Corbin Burnes FD - P 10600 DK - RP 9200 Opponent - PIT (Wil Crowe) Park - PIT FD - 44.44 DK - 25.32 Milwaukee has quietly developed one of the best rotations in baseball, and this guy is a major reason why. Big Burnes has a 2.53 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 115/14 K:BB rate to kick off his Cy Young campaign. Those are truly absurd numbers, with CB providing a ridiculous 13.9 K/9 rate as well. Those crazy figures have led to an imposing floor for Burnes, scoring at least 22 FanDuel points in all 13 starts while dropping at least 39 fantasy points in nine of those. That would make him a great option against anyone, but he happens to have one of the best matchups in baseball here. The Pirates currently rank 28th in OBP and dead-last in both wOBA and wOBACON. All of that is backed by the fact that Pittsburgh is projected for just three runs here, with Burnes entering this matchup as a -220 favorite. Ian Anderson FD - P 8400 DK - SP 7100 Opponent - NYM (Jacob deGrom) Park - ATL FD - 42.57 DK - 22.62 This pricing is crazy. Anderson established himself as an up-and-coming stud last year and has carried that form over to this year. In fact, Mr. Anderson has a 3.28 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 rate through 15 starts this year. That's slightly below his amazing averages last year, but it makes these price tags hard to understand. The $7,100 DraftKings price tag is especially egregious, with IA playing at a $9,000 level. What makes it even crazier is the fact that he has a superb matchup, with the Mets ranked 28th in OBP while scoring the fewest runs in baseball. That was pretty clear when Anderson pitched 5.1 scoreless innings against them just last week. If you have the salary, Jacob deGrom is...