Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/29/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/29/15 Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers This is the kind of day where you are going to want to pay up for pitching. Matt Harvey - FD 10700 DK 10600 Our system isn't through the roof on Harvey tonight, but I see him as a very safe play on this slate. He is turning in a solid season with more than a K an inning while only walking about 1.5 per nine. The 3.09 xFIP won't knock your socks off (literally or figuratively), and he got knocked around last game. But this is an elite arm facing a Marlin team coming in the bottom third of the league in team wOBA against righties. Citi Field helps pitchers by depressing power though the Marlins don't have much of that to begin with. Cole Hamels - FD 9800 DK 10200 If can feel weird taking pitchers against the Rockies but that's because we have Coors Field in mind when thinking about that Denver team. But understand, they aren't a very good hitting team. Even factoring in about half of their games at Coors, the Rockies rank 23rd in the league in team wOBA against lefties and are striking out more than 25% of the time. Take away some Rocky Mountain air and the reality is probably much worse. Hamels strikes out enough batters though I don't love the walk rate. Still, I'm willing to pay up for him on this slate with the matchup. James Shields - FD 9300 DK 9800 Francisco Liriano - FD 9100 DK 9200 Hate that they are facing each other, but love the ballpark they're throwing in. Both guys rate out almost identical pts/$ plays on this slate even with the win expectation diminished for both because of the other (follow that?). I'd consider Shields the safer play of the two as he's been a total ace this season. He's striking out close to twelve batters per nine with a 2.79 xFIP. Dude must be loving San Diego for more than just the weather. Meanwhile, Liriano is putting together one of his best seasons. He's also mowing batters down, but is bitten by the walk bug every once in awhile. More of a tournament play for me just because of the other arms. But you can see why we want to pay way up for pitching today. If you are looking to go super cheap and load up on bats, think about Tim Hudson against...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/24/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/24/15 Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Sonny Gray - FD 10200 DK 9700 After a dud last time around, some will have soured on Gray. But these things happen. The A's 25 year old stud was due for a little regression after out-performing his xFIP so dramatically early in the season. He's still been more than solid, though, and he's been performing for fantasy owners consistently all season. Gray had 5 starts in a row with 14 or more fantasy points before his last game, and his combination of swing and miss stuff and great control make him a decent bet on any given night. But tonight he's a particularly great play. First of all, Tampa Bay is one of the more underrated pitcher's parks in the majors. Second, Erasmo Ramirez is essentially not a major league caliber pitcher. Last, the righty-heavy Rays' .302 wOBA is good for just 19th in the majors. Taken together, this makes Gray easily the safest play of the day. Trevor Bauer - FD 8400 DK 8500 Bauer enters this game on the heels of two fantastic starts, and our projection system thinks that trend should continue. Bauer's posted his highest K rate since 2011 in the minors, and while his command hasn't been perfect, he's been able to wriggle out of jams with his elite stuff. While the Reds had developed a reputation as righty killers over the last few seasons, that hasn't been the case this season - they've put together just the 20th best wOBA against right handed pitching this season. Raisel Iglesias, the starter for the Reds on Sunday, is similarly un-intimidating. He's K'd fewer than 6 batters per 9 innings across AAA and the majors this season, and better than 3.2 walks per 9. Should be a great opportunity to snag a win and potentially a pile of Ks. Francisco Liriano - FD 8700 DK 8000 If you like living dangerously and trying to catch lightning in a bottle, or really if you like any cliches at all, Francisco Liriano might be for you today. The Bucs' lefty has been unlucky this season. His 3.38 xFIP trails his ERA by about .7 of a run. This (and...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/23/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/23/15 Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Early Slate Corey Kluber - FD 10500 DK 11300 By now, you've heard of Corey Kluber. He's averaged 15 strike outs per start in his last two outings (you read that right, if you are just learning this for the first time). But the crazy thing is, our projection system loves him without even knowing that he is as hot as the sun right now. It's simply that the man's got skills. In this game, he'll go up against Anthony Desclafani. While the youngster shows promise, his 34 Ks against 21 BB in 45 innings tell the real story. It's a pitching mismatch, and Kluber should be heavily favored to grab a win here. Throw in the Reds' .302 wOBA (good for 19th in the majors) against righties and you have yourself a favorable and relatively safe match-up all around. Stephen Strasburg - FD 8700 DK 9500 I gave you Strasburg before his outing against San Diego, and while he didn't utterly dominate or anything, he turned in a more than serviceable performance against the Dads. I actually believe the hype - Strasburg's mechanics haven't fully recovered from his injury. Even if you take that into consideration, though, his xFIP is a full 2.30 runs below his year to date ERA. It simply can't keep going at that rate. He's maintained an excellent K rate and BB rate, and a lot of those seeing eye singles are going to turn into outs. In this game he'll go up against Philly, who has managed the 2nd worst wOBA against right handed pitching in the majors in spite of their favorable home park. He's facing a tough pitcher in Hamels, but I think Washinton's superior lineup should help Stras net the win. Late Slate Oy, this is a tough slate to project for me. So few respectable pitchers, and those that do have warts. CJ Wilson has been pitching decently and should be a favorite to snare a win against the underqualified Steven Wright, but do you really want to play him in hitter friendly Fenway? Jake Arrieta is off to a good start this season, but Arizona has some legit bats. Mike...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/21/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/21/15 Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Early Slate There's just a bevvy of big dollar pitching in the early slate. No one could fault you for grabbing Clayton Kershaw or Madison Bumgarner, but trying to get a win from either of them is such a dice roll. That's why I'll probably go for David Price - FD 10900 DK 9600 The Astros are striking out at the 8th highest rate in the MLB against left handers this season, and are in the bottom half of the league in terms of wOBA as well. Price has basically been Price-like so far this season - but the big news here is Scott Feldman. I think he's going to get positively run by the Tigers' tough offense, leaving Price in great shape to grab the W. It's just awfully hard to pass up on a huge K guy in a great match-up when the opposing pitcher is this lousy, so that's likely where I'll go for cash games. Late Slate Julio Teheran - FD 8200 DK 8800 What to make of Julio Teheran's sudden control issues? It's tough to say. Has a 24 year old pitcher just gone off the rails, and started walking almost twice as many guys? Is he hurt? No confidence? Or just a lousy string of games at a glaring time in the season? Barring any news, I'll take the latter. And if there were a time to turn it around, this would be it. Matt Garza has been a train wreck, and the Brewers have amassed the 5th highest strike out percentage against right handed pitching to go with the league's 7th worst wOBA. And for all of his bad luck, Teheran has still put together nearly a K per inning. His woes have made him quite affordable, so I'll get while the getting is good. Also considered: Clay Buchholz. The interesting punt: Kyle Hendricks - FD 6100 DK 6700 Don't look now, but Kyle Hendricks has been non-terrible, at least from a peripheral perspective this season. His BABIP allowed is about .15 points higher than his projected totals, and a couple of disastrous outings have his season ERA in shambles. And that could happen...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/17/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/17/15 Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Stephen Strasburg - FD 8500 DK 9100 Strasburg and Kennedy! It's the "once bitten, twice shy" match-up of the century! I have to say, it's going to take an awfully steady hand to play either of these two on Sunday - but let me make a case for Strasburg. First of all - I'll direct you to this terrific article by Jeff Sullivan over at FanGraphs. He breaks down the fact that, indeed, something appears to be going on with Strasburg right now regarding his mechanics. That's all well and good, and it makes a lot of sense when you see how Sullivan breaks it down. But I think the case for Strasburg's demise is greatly exaggerated. First of all, no amount of mechanical change is going to cause a guy who's still striking out almost a guy an inning to have a .400 BABIP. You can't "earn" a BABIP like that. There might be good reasons it's higher than usual, but there's just no way he's a true-talent .400 BABIP guy. The truth, as always, lies between. And this might be a problem in terms of Strasburg's absolute value, but in daily fantasy baseball, we're primarily looking at his relative value. And Strasburg? He's pitching in the league's best pitcher's park, and facing an opponent in Ian Kennedy who's seen better days. On a day that lacks a lot of star-level pitching, I'll deploy Stras once again, if not totally confidently. Scott Kazmir - FD 8800 DK 7300 Baseball is all at once so cool and so incredibly frustrating. That Kazmir could return from the dead to be a strike out an inning guy after 6-7 years of ineffectiveness just amazes me. But here we are - he's on his second straight year of pitching well, and our projection system would have you believe that it's to be trusted. And this match-up is really something else. He'll be pitching in the friendly confines of Oakland against the White Sox, who have managed the league's worst wOBA. Even better? The White Sox are particularly bad at the one thing Kazmir struggles with - drawing walks. They've accumulated the second fewest walks...