Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/2/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/2/15 It's a double slate day! That means that I'll give you a full run of picks for the late slate, and highlight a few key guys in the early slate. You want to know the rest? No problem. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Early Slate There's pitching to spare in the early slate. You can make an argument for either DeGrom or Arrieta, but since they're playing each other, I don't love the win potential necessarily. That leaves us with one man to rule them all. Corey Kluber - FD 11000 DK 10900 Kluber hasn't had a win since May, but this still feels like an easy one for me. The Rays own the 6th lowest wOBA in the majors vs. right handed pitching, and have struck out at the 6th highest rate. As for Kluber? He's been ridiculously unlucky this season. His 3.66 ERA is considerably worse than his 2.74 xFIP, and his 10.33 K/9 means that he'll carry elite upside in nearly every match-up he's in. Tropicana Field is a great place to pitch as well. I like Kluber in all formats. Late Slate Tyson Ross - FD 8900 DK 9700 Pitching isn't nearly so bountiful in the late slate today, so I'm going to give you a guy that I feel is safe, and a guy I think has big upside. Ross seems to me to be the safe guy. I'll explain. While Ross' walk rate is downright bad, he pairs a highly unusual combination of big swing and miss stuff with Brandon Webb-esque ground-ball tendencies. The result is a sparkling 3.18 xFIP and elite K upside for a fraction of the price of the "true aces" out there. While St. Louis isn't a fantastic match-up for right handers, Ross should be a solid favorite to snag a win over young lefty Tim Cooney. Ross' groundball stuff means he isn't that much worse on the road and in Petco, and I think he's a pretty safe play for any format. Scott Kazmir - FD 9000 DK 9200 If you're looking to shoot the moon with a guy that should be played somewhat less frequently than Ross, consider Scott Kazmir. He still has K per IP stuff, and he's facing a Mariners team that is in the bottom third of the league in terms of OPS against left handed pitching. They're also starting Roenis Elias, who is generally terrible. While I think Kazmir is more likely than Ross to have a blow-up, I could also see him gutting the lefty-heavy...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/1/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/1/15 Full disclaimer - this is a massive double slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. A note before we begin I know some of you masochists are going to be playing the early slate as well. To that end, I'll highlight a play at each position in the early slate for you to pick over. I don't have the time nor the inclination to do a full write-up for both slates, though, so you'll have to make due. Again, you can grab a free three day trial of our projection system if you'd like to see the full set of recommendations. Pitchers Early Slate James Shields - FD 9200 DK 10100 Johnny Cueto - FD 10400 DK 10900 This should be no surprise. In fact, listing both is sort of a cop-out. So I'm going to do a quick comparison instead. Shields has a higher strike-out rate than Cueto, a better xFIP (3.13 to Cueto's 3.30), is pitching in a better park, and is significantly lower priced. Both are pitching against guys whom they should be heavily favored over. I'd guess they'll wind up with around the same point total, so I'll go ahead and save the $1,200 on FanDuel and go with big game James. Late Slate Jon Lester - FD 8600 DK 10300 The bad stuff first - it's been a pretty lousy month to play Jon Lester. But, the good stuff! Lester, in spite of a tough June, still has a wonderful 3.30 xFIP (the same as Cueto, listed above!), and is still nearly a strikeout per inning guy. If it weren't for his career worst BABIP allowed (.329) and his coinciding terrible LOB% (just 72%), he'd be having a pretty typical and good Jon Lester season. I like him in particular today for a couple of reasons. First, getting away from Wrigley should do nice things for his artificially inflated home run rate this season. Next, the Mets themselves. Even though they're about league average in terms of wOBA against lefties, they've struck out at the 6th highest rate in all of the majors. I think this is a great spot to grab some big upside with Lester. Chris Heston - FD 7600 DK 6500 Chris Heston has been way more effective as...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 6/30/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 6/30/15 Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Chris Sale - FD 11300 DK 12800 On a day where 30 men are taking the mound for their respective teams, Chris Sale stands head and shoulders above all of them in terms of raw point projection in our projection system. This should come as no surprise - Sale's 12.19 K/9 leads the majors, and he's maintained a walk rate below 2 per 9 innings. Now, Lance Lynn is no slouch for the Cardinals, but the Cards futility against left handed pitching more than makes up for it. They've struck out an absurd 24% of the time against left handed pitching this season, and that number includes a representative sample of the league's lefties. It doesn't account for them facing a God incarnate. I suspect Sale will blow through this lineup each time through and leave the game with a high double digit point total. Cole Hamels - FD 9800 DK 10300 We received some ridicule early in the season for sticking with Hamels when his ERA wasn't matching his peripherals, but at the end of June, all is well in the world of Cole Hamels owners. The 31 year old's 3.28 xFIP is below his elite career 3.37 number, and nothing seems out of line at all. His 9.60 K/9 is his best since his rookie season nearly a decade ago, and he's actually been a little unlucky with this HR/FB rate. While Taylor Jungmann has been decent this season, the guys trying to score runs for him very much aren't. The Brew Crew has the league's 3rd worst wOBA against left handed pitching this season, and Hamels should be able to have his way here. Ian Kennedy - FD 7400 DK 8100 Before you send any mean tweets, I know that Ian Kennedy sucked the last time he faced the Mariners, and yes, I recall that we picked him then as well. But! From where I'm sitting, the case for playing Kennedy against the Ms remains convincing. The Mariners have the 3rd lowest wOBA against right handed pitching in the majors, and pair that with the league's 4th highest K rate. Kennedy's also been wildly unlucky in terms of his...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 6/29/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 6/29/15 Interested in getting access to the specific projections that inform our daily picks? Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers It is a TERRIBLE day to pick a starting pitcher. There's effectively no safe option today. Spreading out a bunch of decent upside guys might be your best cash game bet. You've been warned. Nathan Karns - FD 6600 DK 7100 No one is going to mistake Nathan Karns for Pedro Martinez, but the newly turned 27 year old has a career xFIP below 4 and a K/9 over 8. He also has some admitted control issues. And! The Indians aren't an especially great match-up. They're about league average against right handed pitching. So why bother with Karns today? Well, as noted, it's a hell of a day to pick a starting pitcher. And this also should be a decent day to go win-hunting with Karns. He'll face Cody Anderson, who FanGraphs ranked as the 13th best prospect in the Indians system before the season began. In other words, he's a fringe dude who is probably a few years from being a useful major league starter. All in all, it's a decent spot to take a shot on Karns. Clay Buchholz - FD 8600 DK 8000 The highest priced pitcher on FanDuel today, Buchholz is the only pitcher going with anything even resembling #1 stuff. And he's no true #1. Still, his 3.16 xFIP is excellent, and he's some bad BABIP luck from having a near 3 ERA this season. The thing holding this ranking down is the pesky Blue Jays. They're one of the very best hitting teams in the league, and this isn't going to be an easy park to pitch in. The upside for Buchholz here comes from the Blue Jays' reasonably high K rate (hovering near 20%) and the opposing pitcher - RA Dickey. Dickey's 4.80 xFIP is his worst since becoming a full time starter, and Buchholz should have a higher than usual chance to get a W. Joe Blanton - FD 5500 DK 4800 Lol? For real, Joe Blanton. Our projection system kinda hates him, and for good reason - the big man hasn't been a relevant big leaguer in ages. Still, 24 Ks against 3 BBs in 26 IP (including 2 excellent starts), and a start against the Astros, who have an historically high K rate against right handed pitching this season (26%!)? I dunno - I could be crazy, but you could probably get every single good hitter and start Blanton as well. Just a thought!...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 6/16/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 6/16/15 So, it's a big two slate day, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays with an emphasis on the late slate that more people are likely to play. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Early Slate Scott Kazmir - FD 9000 DK 9400 Kazmir has been pretty lucky this year. His ERA is about a run better than his xFIP, his BABIP is down, and his K rate is up. But here's a little window into our projection system - it's taking Kazmir's pre-season projections as or more seriously than it has his YTD performance. The truth is, Kazmir is still a strike out per inning guy, and he's got upside for miles against the Padres tonight. The Dads have struck out at the 5th highest clip in the majors against left handed pitching this season, and Petco is an historically great place to depress scoring. Andrew Cashner might not seem like the greatest opponent, but he's been bad for a couple of starts in a row, and I think Kaz is more likely than usual to snag a win here. Also considered: Michael Wacha. Late Slate Trevor Bauer - FD 8400 DK 7100 Since the Cubs/Indians game got rained out yesterday, Bauer's writeup still stands. Here you go! In Bauer you're taking a serious step back in terms of safety, but you're also saving $1,200 worth of salary to apply to a stronger set of hitters to work with. Bauer showed his inherent risk in his last start, getting chased only and leaving fantasy owners hanging. But in the 5 starts before that? He was elite. He averaged 15 fantasy points per start, touching double digit strike outs in 2 of those games. On Monday, he'll have his highest upside matchup of the season - the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs taking a solid shot at going wire to wire with the league's worst K rate of the millenium against right handed pitching (a staggering 25.4%). They're in the bottom half of the league in wOBA as well. The fly in Bauer's ointment is Jake Arrieta - he's been elite in his own right this season, and a win might be tricky. But you're grabbing Bauer primarily for upside, here, so I say shoot for the moon. Jose Quintana - FD 7700 DK...