Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Yahoo, and Victiv 7/19/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Yahoo, and Victiv 7/19/15 Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers It's a crazy day to choose a starting pitcher. FanDuel has 9 guys priced over $10,000, which has got to be the most since opening day - and I"m not even sure there were that many going that day. And the odd thing? On a points per dollar basis, our projection system really doesn't love any of them. Now, obviously it's going to play out that some of them have elite games. No doubt about it. What we're saying is that it's quite hard to differentiate one from the other. If I had to choose one, it'd be Dallas Keuchel - FD 10400 DK 10300 Victiv Yahoo 51 It's kind of weird to write this name given the level of pitching today, but here we are. Keuchel is a very interesting guy. His 2.72 xFIP is absolutely elite, but he puts it together in a way that none of the other creme de la creme pitchers do. His 7.47 K/9 is nothing extraordinary, and his 2.23 BB/9, while good, is not out of this world either. Where Keuchel butters his bread? Groundballs. His 64.1% GB rate is the 2nd best in the major leagues, and it means he's as big a favorite to go deep in a game as anyone. The other great thing here is the match-up. The Rangers have oddly become one of the very best match-ups in the league for left handed pitching. They've struck out at the 7th highest rate of any team against left handed pitching, and they've got the 6th worst wOBA. They're also about .020 wOBA points worse when they're on the road. While Gallardo has a sparkly ERA, his 79 K/40 BB in 113 IP paints a much worse picture. All in all, I like Keuchel best among the big dollar plays. Cole Hamels - FD 9800 DK 10100 Victiv Yahoo 51 In the next tier down, price wise, Cole Hamels looks like a darn good play. While the Marlins have hit left handed pitching pretty well this season, they've struck out at the 10th highest rate of any team against left handed pitching, making them a nice team to go for...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/18/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/18/15 We're back after the dullest week in sports. Thank goodness. I'm too eager to write much of a preamble. Let's do it. Full disclaimer - this is a double slate day, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays in the second (and main) slate, while giving you a play per position at the early slate. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Early Slate Michael Pineda - FD 9700 DK 10400 Victiv Yahoo Revenge game? Nah, it's not that. It's just that Pineda isn't as dead as many (including me) left him. While his ERA looks like his break-out 2011 year, he's actually been more than a full run better than that, xFIP wise. He's pitching like a true #1, and making the Pineda/Montero swap look ridiculous, even if it is years later. And then there's his former team. They've struck out at the 4th highest rate against right handed pitching this year, and managed the league's 6th worst wOBA against righties. It also helps his case that Iwakuma has gotten torched on his short innings this year. If I play the early slate (I may not - it's my son's birthday!), Pineda will be my guy in every format. I'll pass on Clayton Kershaw. The Nats just aren't that good a match-up, and frankly, Pineda has been comparable at almost $3k less on FanDuel. Late Slate Jon Lester - FD 8900 DK 9800 Victiv Yahoo Solid pitcher meets great match-up. Lester 3.14 xFIP is nearly the best of his career, and he's still up around a K per inning pitcher. And then there's the Braves. The offensively mascotted team from Atlanta has been the 2nd worst team against left handed pitching this season - outdone only by the White Sox's historical futility. The young Manny Banuelos has a nice looking ERA, but he's walked 4 batters since his last strike-out. There's some chance he's not ready, and the Cubs have some power bats that could make him pay. Tyson Ross - FD 8400 DK 8900 Victiv Yahoo Taking a pitcher against the Rockies! Live a little. Let's get your big concerns out of the way - in spite of the Rockies' strong overall line this season, they've been awful on the road. They've paired the league's 4th highest K rate with the 5th...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/12/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/12/15 Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Francisco Liriano - FD 10000 DK 9700 However you want to slice it, Francisco Liriano is back to pitching like a true ace. It may have taken 9 years to return near the form he flashed in 2006, but here we are. Liriano has matched 2014's elite K/9 Rate and shave off 1.5 BB/9 while maintaining his elite ground-ball rate, and he has opposing hitters flummoxed. And today just happens to be the very perfect match-up for his skills. The Cardinals have paired the league's very highest K% rate against left handed pitching with the 5th worst wOBA, making them a true push-over for pitchers like Liriano. What's more, they'll be starting the non-prospoect Tim Cooney, who is basically a below league average pitch to contact guy. It's amazing that we're here, but we're here: Liriano seems to be the safest pitcher on the board, and he has arguably the highest upside as well. Johnny Cueto - FD 11000 DK 10900 Cueto will be a huge play today. His credentials are well-known at this point - so I won't bore you there. He's a fantastic pitcher. Miami is a great place to pitch. So why list him below Liriano? Well, the Marlins are terrible against right handed pitching (the 3rd worst wOBA in the majors), and have the 8th highest strikeout rate. So it's not them. Basically, it comes down to Cueto's price and the opposing pitcher. Dan Haren is much better than Tim Cooney, and Cueto costs $1k more than Liriano. Don't get me wrong - I love the guy, and won't blame you if you grab him in 50/50s. I'm just taking a stand and saying Liriano is my guy. Rubby De La Rosa - FD 6600 DK 7200 If you want to buy basically every big $ hitter today, Rubby De La Rosa looks pretty interesting to me. First of all, he's been wildly unlucky. His xFIP is 1.6 runs better than his ERA. He is striking out nearly a guy per inning this year, and has flashed good control to go with it. Basically, he's allowed a wildly unsustainable 19% HR/FB rate (8% ahead of his previous levels),...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/8/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/8/15 Well, well, well. It's Wednesday. And it's a huge, yuge double slate. Games in the afternoon, games in the evening, games everywhere. For this article, I'm going to go ahead and give just 1 player from each position for the early slate and 2 from each position for the late slate. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Early Slate Julio Teheran - FD 8200 DK 8500 The cash game guy is Jacob DeGrom but I'm intrigued by Teheran for big tournaments. He had a 2.9:1 K:BB ratio in June, and while he had a few terrible starts in there, he had some good games as well. The Brew Crew are basically league average against right handers, but I really like Teheran's spot against Fiers here. While Fiers has better peripherals over the course of the season, he had a 26:18 K:BB in June, and everything seems headed in the wrong direction. This is categorically an unsafe play - but there could be great points per dollar upside here. Late Slate Clayton Kershaw - FD 12500 DK 13300 Like Kluber last night, Kershaw shows up in all of the optimal double-up lineups I am making for Wednesday's late slate, even at these huge prices. Kershaw himself needs no introduction, so let me break down the match-up. The Phillies aren't especially awful against left handed pitching, but they will be away from their friendly home ball-park, which should help Kershaw. And what will really help? A man named Adam Morgan. You may not have heard of him. You may not want to. The young man couldn't manage a K/9 above 5 in AAA this season. Basically, he had a big 2012 that saw his prospect stock rise, and then he never did anything again. Kershaw will be an overwhelming favorite to get the win here, and should have plenty of luck with the punchless Phils. Easily the cash game play of the day. Trevor Bauer - FD 8400 DK 7900 Another day, another great match-up for a Cleveland right-hander. The reason to play Bauer is the same reason that Corey Kluber headlined the pitcher category last night - the Houston Astros. The Astros are striking out at historical levels against right handed pitching. Their 25.9% K rate is the highest of the millenium, and might be the highest ever, but I'm too lazy to look back any further. Bauer, for his part, has his warts. He's...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/7/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/7/15 Hey there! It's been a few days since I've taken the reins on our nightly picks, and I hope your Independence Day weekend was as much fun as mine was. Hopefully you didn't gain independence from some of your money while playing the way I did. Gulp. Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Corey Kluber - FD 11000 DK 11200 If our projection system is to be believed, someone should probably throw a net over you if you don't play Kluber in your 50/50s and double ups tonight. Kluber is one of the very highest guys on a points per dollar basis, and on FanDuel, he lets you invest a huge portion of your salary at a great multiplier. The reasons here are pretty straightforward. Kluber is an ace's ace, regardless of what his ERA tells you. The man has a 2.56 xFIP over the last two seasons, and pairs the league's 5th best K/9 with a sub-2 BB/9 (the best number of any pitcher in the top 5 in k/9). And, sure, there are some other elite pitchers going today. Two of them are pitching against each other (Cueto and Scherzer) and neither of those fellas gets to pitch against the Houston Astros. If you aren't familiar with their ineptitude, the Astros have an historically bad 25.9% K rate against right handed pitching this year. They're also trotting out the young and erratic Vincent Velasquez. From front to back, Kluber is easily my guy for cash games. Tyson Ross - FD 8800 DK 9300 Francisco Liriano - FD 10200 DK 10300 If you want more of an off-beat play, our system thinks either of these guys could provide outsized returns today. While I'll go ahead and say I like Ross better from a pure talent perspective (the mix of K rate and GB% are just ridiculous), I think Liriano might have the very highest upside of any pitcher on a star-studded slate. There are 9 reasons, and they wear sand and occasionally camouflage uniforms, and they live in a perfect climate, and they are all super f***king rich, and... where was I? Oh yeah. The Padres! The reason is the Padres. They have the third highest K...