Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo 8/8/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo 8/8/15 Happy Saturday, everyone! Two big slates, and many nice edges for your daily fantasy baseball gambling purposes today. As it's a huge slate, I'm going to break this down into two sections - I'll give you 1 guy for each position from the early slate, and 2 guys from the larger later slate. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo. Pitchers Early Slate Noah Syndergaard - FD 10800 DK 11500 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- TB (Karns) R Park- @TB After a good 2014 AAA campaign, Syndergaard has been electric across AAA and the majors in 2015. His 2.94 xFIP would be good for 12th in the majors if he qualified (he's only a few innings off), and he's been better than the more ballyhooed duo of Harvey and DeGrom. He's also averaged 20 fantasy points in back to back 8 inning starts, and he's truly at the peak of his powers. Today he'll have truly an ideal match-up with the lowly Rays of Tampa Bay (sweet rhyming team name btw - why not the New York Storks, or the Colorado Avocados? I hate expansion teams.). The Rays have the 4th lowest wOBA in the majors against right handed pitching, which they pair with the 3rd highest K rate against right handers. I'm not worried about the surprisingly decent Nathan Karns, here. Syndergaard is an ace, and I like him for the win and a pile of Ks. Jesse Chavez actually makes an interesting punt option against Houston's K happy offense. He's on a reduced price after a few awful starts, but everyone is bad from time to time. Late Slate Tyson Ross - FD 8900 DK 10600 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- Phi (Morgan) L Park- @Sd With a million great pitchers going in the last two days, we're left with a day of the dregs. I won't include Ross in that category. While there's something of a perception that Ross is lucky (due to his high BB rate), the fact of the matter is that he actually has a pretty serviceable and unique skill set. His 63% groundball rate is the 3rd highest in the majors, and it's nearly 5% higher than 4th place. He turns a lot of those walks into double plays, and erases others with his elite 9.56 strikeouts per 9 innings. Today he'll face the Phillies - owners of the 2nd worst wOBA in the majors against right handed pitching. The...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo 8/3/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo 8/3/15 Hey all! TGIM! It's a short slate on Monday, but even on a short slate, we'll never be able to detail every single good pick for you. What follows is a few players from each position that make a solid play for various contest types. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo. Pitchers Francisco Liriano - FD 10500 DK 10800 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- CHC (Lester) L Park- @Pit Jon Lester - FD 10000 DK 10400 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- Pit (Liriano) L Park- @Pit Feels like a cop out writing up 2 pitchers who are facing one another, but here's the thing - they both have fantastic match-ups. Both the Cubs and the Bucs are in the top 7 in terms of K% against left handed pitching, so the upside for either is undeniable. If I had to choose one, though, I'd go with Lester. In spite of the big name bats on the Pirates being right handed (McCutchen and Marte), they have a few guys who just can't hit left handed pitching at all (Walker and Alvarez), and they're in the bottom half of the league when it comes to wOBA against lefties. As for the pitchers themselves - they actually cut a much more similar profile that you may realize. Both are sub-3 xFIP guys (excellent) with K rates better than a guy per inning. Only one of them can win this match-up, of course, but I think you could make a case for just splitting your lineups between the two and filling your lineups around what would be a sturdy and well-hedged foundation. Tyson Ross - FD 8600 DK 9300 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- Mil (Peralta) R Park- @Mil Ross is one of the more unusual great pitchers in the league. At first blush, his 4.30 BB/9 walk rate is the highest in the majors by .75 among qualified pitchers. It seems like I should be making acerbic barbs about him instead of including him on top of the pitcher rankings. So what gives? Well, Ross has a K/9 approach 10, which is excellent, but perhaps more importantly, the man is a literal ground ball machine. Well not literally - he's a human being - but he generates grounders at the third highest rate in the majors, and is 6% ahead of the guy in 4th place. His K/9 is almost 2 per 9 higher than the either of the guys ahead of...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo 8/1/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo 8/1/15 Happy Saturday! Welcome to the DFSR. Today's article will feature late slate picks, since that's where the vast majority of you will be playing. We do offer daily projections for every single player every single day. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo. Pitchers The Elephant in the Room Clayton Kershaw. What do we do with a guy who's priced higher than any pitcher in the brief history of daily fantasy sports? I know I said I'd focus on the late slate, but I wanted to get this out there. On one hand, he's earned it. He's averaged almost 26 FanDuel fantasy points in his last 3 games, which is just ridiculous. Just. Ridiculous. Blessedly he's only available in the early slate (which you'll probably skip since most people do), and you probably just need to grab him early in double-ups. But man, it's going to be tough to build a lineup around him, and I'd be a little bit gun shy. On to the picks So, I'm going to give you my favorite guy across three distinct tiers of pitcher tonight. Expensive Jacob deGrom - FD 11300 DK 11800 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- Was (Ross) R Park- @Nym With a lot of great pitching going today, it might strike you as odd to grab a guy who'll face the greatest hitter of right handed pitching on the planet. And that's true. But after Bryce Harper, the Nats have been a downright sorry lot against right handed pitching this season. Even including his efforts, the Nats are in the middle of the league when it comes to wOBA and have struck out at the 7th highest rate against northpaws this season, making them a good (if not great) daily fantasy baseball match-up. And hey, I'll tip my cap to Joe Ross based on his first 30 innings in the majors, but his good but not great minor league track record looms a little bit larger for me. Give me DeGrom among the big money guys for my double-ups and 50/50s today. Mid-range Lance Lynn - FD 9600 DK 10200 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- Col (de la Rosa) L Park- @Stl Picking against the Rockies, baby! Feels like living dangerously, until you take a peak behind the curtain. The Rockies have struck out with the greatest frequency of any team on the road (24.1%!), and are in the bottom third of the league in wOBA as...
Trade Deadline Moves, and How they Affect Daily Fantasy Baseball
How the moves at the trade deadline will change the value of certain guys on FanDuel, Draftkings, Victiv, and Yahoo The trade deadline has passed, and a few huge names have switched teams. In this article, we'll break down what it means for deploying them on FanDuel, Draftkings, Victiv, and Yahoo going forward for the rest of the season. One quick note - all of this stuff will be incorporated automatically into our projection system. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo. The Game Changers Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays Critics of Troy Tulowitzki will be quick to point out that his career OPS is nearly .140 points worse on the road, and that his underlying production has taken some notable and troubling dives this season. He's walking less, striking out more, and his isolated power numbers are way down as well. The hypothetical critics I'm referencing here are right. So does moving to Toronto crush Tulo's already declining value? In short, no. Let's break it down. Home Park Moving from Coors to the Rogers Centre is a downgrade, there's no doubt about it. Thankfully, though, the Rogers Centre was tied for the 6th best run scoring environment in baseball in 2014, per FanGraphs. Interestingly, Tulo sees another big upgrade in moving away from Coors - his most frequent away parks. The NL West is littered with 3 awful hitters' destinations (SF, SD, LAD) and one good park (Arizona). The AL East has one terrible park to hit in (TB) and then three great ones. This is still a downgrade, to be sure, but for potential Tulo destinations, it could have been a lot worse. Lineup position Tulo has batted leadoff so far, and while this might hurt his RBI, the guys batting around him are more than capable of driving him in. In addition, the leadoff spot gets about .24 more plate appearances per game over the 3rd spot, and .36 plate appearances over the cleanup spot. All in all, I think this is a win. Teammates The Blue Jays are the only team in the league with a higher wOBA than the Rockies, so this has to be called a win. If you control for home and away games, the difference is dramatic - the Jays are .020 wOBA points better than the Rocks on the road. Price This is really where potential Tulo owners should get excited. At least early on, Tulo's price has dropped from ~$4,600 for home games in Coors to $3,500 for his home games in Toronto. There's no way he has an expectation to drop overall fantasy...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, Victiv, Yahoo, and DraftKings 7/31/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, Victiv, Yahoo, and DraftKings 7/31/15 Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Note: I could recommend a number of pitchers at similar prices tonight, so instead I'll give you whom I believe to be the best plays at different tiers of pricing so you can make decisions at different salary points. Enjoy! The big ticket Matt Harvey - FD 9900 DK 11200 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- Was (Gonzalez) L Park- @Nym In the interest of full disclosure, our projection system actually likes Gio Gonzalez quite a bit today too - mostly because it acknowledges that people really underrate how well they can predict who will get the win in a given game. Now, it's going to feel a little awkward for some to pick against the Nats - they've got the best hitter of right handed pitching on the entire world on their team, after all. But it might surprise you to find out that, in spite of Harper's heroics, the Nats are still basically a middle of the pack team when it comes to the wOBA they have against right handed pitching, and have struck out with the 7th highest frequency. And, since one man can't dominate baseball the way he can, say, basketball, Harvey is still a solid start here. I don't know that there's Herculean upside here or anything, but for 50/50s and double ups, I think Harvey is a very solid play. The middle-man Jason Hammel - FD 8200 DK 8100 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- Mil (Jungmann) R Park- @Mil If you're looking for a cheaper option to consider in double-ups, or even a big tournament, consider Hammel. It might surprise you to know, for instance, that Hammel has a 3.40 xFIP and an 8.5 K/9 in the last two seasons. Those are damned solid numbers - the xFIP is better than Harvey's this year - and his K/9 means he'll have decent upside whenever he takes the mound. The Brewers are slightly below average against right handed pitching, making this a fairly safe play as well. He'll be facing Taylor Jungmann today, whose 3.93 xFIP (making him basically a league average starter) paints a much better picture of his true talent than his lofty 2.14 ERA. If things break...