Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/9/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/9/18 Fully recovered from your weekend? Ready to start the week off right with an 11-game evening slate on FanDuel and DraftKings. Don't get a case of the Mondays here with some solid expensive pitching plus the Red Sox looking to do damage at home against Mike Minor and the Rangers. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Gerrit Cole FD 11100 DK 13100 Opponent - OAK (Frankie Montas) Park - HOU FD - 45.32 DK - 24.53 After posting double-digit strikeout games in five of his first seven starts this season, Cole hasn’t topped eight K’s in any of his last ten games. I’m not overly concerned with the performance, but am just not as bullish as the early season strikeouts maybe suggested. It also is *concerning* that his last four starts have come against below-average offenses in the Rangers, Rays (twice) and Royals and he topped six innings in only one of those starts. The walks are up in the short term as teams start to see more of Cole’s new pitching repertoire (more sliders and curveballs, fewer fastballs and changeups). He’s the biggest money line favorite on the day at -250 which does help his overall projection considering the A’s are a top-third offense in the league against righty pitching. He’s not overly expensive on FanDuel, but the decision on DraftKings is a little closer. Pitching offers some weirdness today considering he and Nola are priced in the upper tier, Kershaw could still be on a pitch count and the middle tier guys aren’t all that exciting. I’m still buying on Cole’s strikeout upside with the understanding that he probably settles in at a K-rate something like 11 per nine. Aaron Nola FD 10100 DK 13100 Opponent - NYM (Corey Oswalt) Park - NYM FD - 39.01 DK - 20.84 Nola’s season is going quite the opposite of Cole’s so far. The latter started off struggling to strike out batters at the same rates we saw in 2017, but he’s been excellent over his last three starts averaging 6.86 innings, 7.33 K’s and 1.33 runs in that span. On Monday he’ll get an excellent matchup against the Mets who are in the bottom third of the league against righty pitching this season and strike out 22% of the time. At the time of this...
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/8/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/8/18 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Zack Greinke FD 10100 DK 10200 Opponent - SD (Clayton Richard) Park - ARIFD - 40.63 DK - 21.77 On a day without an ace's ace to play, Greinke seems like a pretty reasonable consolation prize. We've gotten 300 very consistent innings from Greinke over the last two seasons, settling any concerns about a decline coming after his underwhelming 2016 campaign. Greinke is striking out slightly fewer batters per inning this season (but he's still over 1 batter per inning), but he's also reduced his already microscopic walk rate below 2 as well. He's giving up slightly more home runs this season, but his 3.38 xFIP is just .04 below last year's figure. On a slate like this, numbers like those are what passes for an ace. The match-up only makes the case even stronger. The Padres are dead last in the majors in terms of wOBA against right handed pitching this season, and they are striking out at the second highest rate against them. Granted Arizona is a friendlier place to hit than San Diego, but we still effectively have a dream spot here. I like Greinke in any format and on both major sites. Madison Bumgarner FD 8100 DK 11100 Opponent - STL (Jack Flaherty) Park - SFFD - 38.2 DK - 20.39 Dallas Keuchel FD 8900 DK 9200 Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - HOUFD - 38.13 DK - 19.44 The theme here is likely pretty obvious - former aces that have lost a step or two. Let's start with Bumgarner. He looked a little rough in his first 3 starts after his rehab assignment this year, striking out just 9 in 17 and a third innings, but there is reason to believe there are still shreds of the old Madbum. He struck out 16 in two starts at home against San Diego and Colorado before having an understandably underwhelming start in Coors, and at this point, it's tough to know what the truth about him is going forward. Me? I'm somewhat a buyer here. The strikeouts were down last year, but his control was excellent, and I think expecting him to get back to 8.5 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 is a pretty reasonable benchmark. That makes him a slightly poor man's Greinke at almost...
Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers and Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/7/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers and Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/7/18 We already highlighted Charlie Morton, James Paxton and Max Scherzer in our Saturday 7/7/18 picks article. We also highlighted the Red Sox and Brewers as popular game stacks at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitchers Blake Snell FD 9900 DK 12700 Opponent - NYM (Steven Matz) Park - NYMFD - 37.72 DK - 19.87 Snell is the third most expensive arm on DraftKings today, and I'm not completely sure I'm sold on that price tag when we can get Morton and Paxton without as much salary commitment. On FanDuel for less than $10K however, I am all in on Snell. Especially in Citi Field against the Mets, who hold the second lowest team wOBA against southpaws (.280) while striking out second most against the split (26% of the time). Snell has certainly proven himself worthy of our consideration, allowing one run or less in every game in an 8 game stretch since May 24th. Snell is backing up a 2.24 ERA with a 3.54 xFIP while striking out an elite 10.19 batters per nine. He's one of only five pitchers with more than ten wins at this point and is on pace to post career best numbers in every meaningful category here in his third season. Snell is a superb option in a perfect matchup and for that FanDuel price, he has upside for days. Robbie Ray FD 9000 DK 9200 Opponent - SD (Tyson Ross) Park - ARIFD - 37.38 DK - 20.5 I mentioned in the picks article that there are several good arms on the short four-game main slate, and I meant it. In addition to Scherzer, who I recommended for cash, we have Ross Stripling, David Price, and my favorite of the bunch, Robbie Ray. Ray missed nearly two months with an oblique strain. In two starts since his return, Ray shut down the Marlins through six and then got rocked by the Cardinals for six runs in five innings. Today he sees a phenomenal matchup against the Padres who like the Mets are terrible against left-handed pitching. Their .296 team wOBA is fifth lowest in baseball, and they strikeout third-most against the split (24.1%). The DBacks are -170 favorites and the Padres project...
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/7/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/7/18 Welcome back, friends! Saturday in the majors begins with a pair of early games, but for this article, we'll focus primarily on the afternoon set of nine games with some considerations for your evening lineups as well. Our projection system has been busy pumping out all the top plays of the day, so let's break down the options position by position. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Charlie Morton FD 10800 DK 12200 Opponent - CHW (James Shields) Park - HOU FD - 44.54 DK - 24.07 We've got a lot of strong arms going today, and with Max on the main slate, Charlie Morton leads the way in the afternoon. Morton, who put up a stellar 2017 campaign is following it up with an even better 2018. He's heading into the All-Star break with a top ten xFIP and top five K/9. He's already sitting at 10 wins through 17 starts and seems virtually untouchable at the moment surrendering just two earned runs in 19.2 innings over his last three starts combined while striking out 28 in that stretch. He'll toe the rubber today against the White Sox in a game that sees the Astros as an insane -301 favorite with Chicago projecting for less than three runs. We'll have to sacrifice a bit with our position players, but Morton is the surest play in town and holds the top points projection by a country mile in the afternoon. James Paxton FD 10300 DK 12500 Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - SEA FD - 40.04 DK - 21.74 Having an equally successful season is James Paxton of the Mariners. Paxton sits just above Morton in the xFIP standings with a 3.00, eighth overall among qualified starters, and just one-hundredth of a K/9 separates the two. The price on Paxton is getting up there as well, but if you do need a couple hundred in savings, he's a solid pivot off of Morton. He's facing the Rockies who aren't shy against southpaws but does get the good fortune of facing them on his home turf as opposed to theirs. Safeco is a top five pitchers park in the league, and Colorado is a bottom third road offense this season. Seattle is a modest -178 favorite to open, so the odds aren't as favorable, but...
DFSR’s Daily Fantasy MLB Podcast for FanDuel & DraftKings Friday 7/6/18
DFSR's Daily Fantasy MLB Podcast for FanDuel & DraftKings Friday 7/6/18 DFSR’s Doug Norrie and James Davis are back on the MLB podcast discussing a full Friday’s worth of baseball action or FanDuel and DraftKings. They kick things off talking 4th of July fireworks and then get into some of the pitching options. Chris Sale is the clear leader in the clubhouse for cash games taking on the Royals on the road. They also discuss Jacob deGrom and how he’s hurt by his team’s lack of win expectation. Other arms to discuss are Zack Godley, Gio Gonzalez, Dylan Bundy and more. On the offensive side of things, the guys look at the Nationals as a cash game stack, coming cheaper across the board against Dan Straily. They look at some other bad arms on the slate as well as some one-off type guys hitting towards the top of the lineup. Be sure to subscribe...