Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/8/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/8/15 Well, well, well. It's Wednesday. And it's a huge, yuge double slate. Games in the afternoon, games in the evening, games everywhere. For this article, I'm going to go ahead and give just 1 player from each position for the early slate and 2 from each position for the late slate. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Early Slate Julio Teheran - FD 8200 DK 8500 The cash game guy is Jacob DeGrom but I'm intrigued by Teheran for big tournaments. He had a 2.9:1 K:BB ratio in June, and while he had a few terrible starts in there, he had some good games as well. The Brew Crew are basically league average against right handers, but I really like Teheran's spot against Fiers here. While Fiers has better peripherals over the course of the season, he had a 26:18 K:BB in June, and everything seems headed in the wrong direction. This is categorically an unsafe play - but there could be great points per dollar upside here. Late Slate Clayton Kershaw - FD 12500 DK 13300 Like Kluber last night, Kershaw shows up in all of the optimal double-up lineups I am making for Wednesday's late slate, even at these huge prices. Kershaw himself needs no introduction, so let me break down the match-up. The Phillies aren't especially awful against left handed pitching, but they will be away from their friendly home ball-park, which should help Kershaw. And what will really help? A man named Adam Morgan. You may not have heard of him. You may not want to. The young man couldn't manage a K/9 above 5 in AAA this season. Basically, he had a big 2012 that saw his prospect stock rise, and then he never did anything again. Kershaw will be an overwhelming favorite to get the win here, and should have plenty of luck with the punchless Phils. Easily the cash game play of the day. Trevor Bauer - FD 8400 DK 7900 Another day, another great match-up for a Cleveland right-hander. The reason to play Bauer is the same reason that Corey Kluber headlined the pitcher category last night - the Houston Astros. The Astros are striking out at historical levels against right handed pitching. Their 25.9% K rate is the highest of the millenium, and might be the highest ever, but I'm too lazy to look back any further. Bauer, for his part, has his warts. He's...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/7/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/7/15 Hey there! It's been a few days since I've taken the reins on our nightly picks, and I hope your Independence Day weekend was as much fun as mine was. Hopefully you didn't gain independence from some of your money while playing the way I did. Gulp. Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Corey Kluber - FD 11000 DK 11200 If our projection system is to be believed, someone should probably throw a net over you if you don't play Kluber in your 50/50s and double ups tonight. Kluber is one of the very highest guys on a points per dollar basis, and on FanDuel, he lets you invest a huge portion of your salary at a great multiplier. The reasons here are pretty straightforward. Kluber is an ace's ace, regardless of what his ERA tells you. The man has a 2.56 xFIP over the last two seasons, and pairs the league's 5th best K/9 with a sub-2 BB/9 (the best number of any pitcher in the top 5 in k/9). And, sure, there are some other elite pitchers going today. Two of them are pitching against each other (Cueto and Scherzer) and neither of those fellas gets to pitch against the Houston Astros. If you aren't familiar with their ineptitude, the Astros have an historically bad 25.9% K rate against right handed pitching this year. They're also trotting out the young and erratic Vincent Velasquez. From front to back, Kluber is easily my guy for cash games. Tyson Ross - FD 8800 DK 9300 Francisco Liriano - FD 10200 DK 10300 If you want more of an off-beat play, our system thinks either of these guys could provide outsized returns today. While I'll go ahead and say I like Ross better from a pure talent perspective (the mix of K rate and GB% are just ridiculous), I think Liriano might have the very highest upside of any pitcher on a star-studded slate. There are 9 reasons, and they wear sand and occasionally camouflage uniforms, and they live in a perfect climate, and they are all super f***king rich, and... where was I? Oh yeah. The Padres! The reason is the Padres. They have the third highest K...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/2/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/2/15 It's a double slate day! That means that I'll give you a full run of picks for the late slate, and highlight a few key guys in the early slate. You want to know the rest? No problem. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Early Slate There's pitching to spare in the early slate. You can make an argument for either DeGrom or Arrieta, but since they're playing each other, I don't love the win potential necessarily. That leaves us with one man to rule them all. Corey Kluber - FD 11000 DK 10900 Kluber hasn't had a win since May, but this still feels like an easy one for me. The Rays own the 6th lowest wOBA in the majors vs. right handed pitching, and have struck out at the 6th highest rate. As for Kluber? He's been ridiculously unlucky this season. His 3.66 ERA is considerably worse than his 2.74 xFIP, and his 10.33 K/9 means that he'll carry elite upside in nearly every match-up he's in. Tropicana Field is a great place to pitch as well. I like Kluber in all formats. Late Slate Tyson Ross - FD 8900 DK 9700 Pitching isn't nearly so bountiful in the late slate today, so I'm going to give you a guy that I feel is safe, and a guy I think has big upside. Ross seems to me to be the safe guy. I'll explain. While Ross' walk rate is downright bad, he pairs a highly unusual combination of big swing and miss stuff with Brandon Webb-esque ground-ball tendencies. The result is a sparkling 3.18 xFIP and elite K upside for a fraction of the price of the "true aces" out there. While St. Louis isn't a fantastic match-up for right handers, Ross should be a solid favorite to snag a win over young lefty Tim Cooney. Ross' groundball stuff means he isn't that much worse on the road and in Petco, and I think he's a pretty safe play for any format. Scott Kazmir - FD 9000 DK 9200 If you're looking to shoot the moon with a guy that should be played somewhat less frequently than Ross, consider Scott Kazmir. He still has K per IP stuff, and he's facing a Mariners team that is in the bottom third of the league in terms of OPS against left handed pitching. They're also starting Roenis Elias, who is generally terrible. While I think Kazmir is more likely than Ross to have a blow-up, I could also see him gutting the lefty-heavy...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/1/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/1/15 Full disclaimer - this is a massive double slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. A note before we begin I know some of you masochists are going to be playing the early slate as well. To that end, I'll highlight a play at each position in the early slate for you to pick over. I don't have the time nor the inclination to do a full write-up for both slates, though, so you'll have to make due. Again, you can grab a free three day trial of our projection system if you'd like to see the full set of recommendations. Pitchers Early Slate James Shields - FD 9200 DK 10100 Johnny Cueto - FD 10400 DK 10900 This should be no surprise. In fact, listing both is sort of a cop-out. So I'm going to do a quick comparison instead. Shields has a higher strike-out rate than Cueto, a better xFIP (3.13 to Cueto's 3.30), is pitching in a better park, and is significantly lower priced. Both are pitching against guys whom they should be heavily favored over. I'd guess they'll wind up with around the same point total, so I'll go ahead and save the $1,200 on FanDuel and go with big game James. Late Slate Jon Lester - FD 8600 DK 10300 The bad stuff first - it's been a pretty lousy month to play Jon Lester. But, the good stuff! Lester, in spite of a tough June, still has a wonderful 3.30 xFIP (the same as Cueto, listed above!), and is still nearly a strikeout per inning guy. If it weren't for his career worst BABIP allowed (.329) and his coinciding terrible LOB% (just 72%), he'd be having a pretty typical and good Jon Lester season. I like him in particular today for a couple of reasons. First, getting away from Wrigley should do nice things for his artificially inflated home run rate this season. Next, the Mets themselves. Even though they're about league average in terms of wOBA against lefties, they've struck out at the 6th highest rate in all of the majors. I think this is a great spot to grab some big upside with Lester. Chris Heston - FD 7600 DK 6500 Chris Heston has been way more effective as...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 6/30/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 6/30/15 Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Chris Sale - FD 11300 DK 12800 On a day where 30 men are taking the mound for their respective teams, Chris Sale stands head and shoulders above all of them in terms of raw point projection in our projection system. This should come as no surprise - Sale's 12.19 K/9 leads the majors, and he's maintained a walk rate below 2 per 9 innings. Now, Lance Lynn is no slouch for the Cardinals, but the Cards futility against left handed pitching more than makes up for it. They've struck out an absurd 24% of the time against left handed pitching this season, and that number includes a representative sample of the league's lefties. It doesn't account for them facing a God incarnate. I suspect Sale will blow through this lineup each time through and leave the game with a high double digit point total. Cole Hamels - FD 9800 DK 10300 We received some ridicule early in the season for sticking with Hamels when his ERA wasn't matching his peripherals, but at the end of June, all is well in the world of Cole Hamels owners. The 31 year old's 3.28 xFIP is below his elite career 3.37 number, and nothing seems out of line at all. His 9.60 K/9 is his best since his rookie season nearly a decade ago, and he's actually been a little unlucky with this HR/FB rate. While Taylor Jungmann has been decent this season, the guys trying to score runs for him very much aren't. The Brew Crew has the league's 3rd worst wOBA against left handed pitching this season, and Hamels should be able to have his way here. Ian Kennedy - FD 7400 DK 8100 Before you send any mean tweets, I know that Ian Kennedy sucked the last time he faced the Mariners, and yes, I recall that we picked him then as well. But! From where I'm sitting, the case for playing Kennedy against the Ms remains convincing. The Mariners have the 3rd lowest wOBA against right handed pitching in the majors, and pair that with the league's 4th highest K rate. Kennedy's also been wildly unlucky in terms of his...