Trade Deadline Moves, and How they Affect Daily Fantasy Baseball
How the moves at the trade deadline will change the value of certain guys on FanDuel, Draftkings, Victiv, and Yahoo The trade deadline has passed, and a few huge names have switched teams. In this article, we'll break down what it means for deploying them on FanDuel, Draftkings, Victiv, and Yahoo going forward for the rest of the season. One quick note - all of this stuff will be incorporated automatically into our projection system. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo. The Game Changers Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays Critics of Troy Tulowitzki will be quick to point out that his career OPS is nearly .140 points worse on the road, and that his underlying production has taken some notable and troubling dives this season. He's walking less, striking out more, and his isolated power numbers are way down as well. The hypothetical critics I'm referencing here are right. So does moving to Toronto crush Tulo's already declining value? In short, no. Let's break it down. Home Park Moving from Coors to the Rogers Centre is a downgrade, there's no doubt about it. Thankfully, though, the Rogers Centre was tied for the 6th best run scoring environment in baseball in 2014, per FanGraphs. Interestingly, Tulo sees another big upgrade in moving away from Coors - his most frequent away parks. The NL West is littered with 3 awful hitters' destinations (SF, SD, LAD) and one good park (Arizona). The AL East has one terrible park to hit in (TB) and then three great ones. This is still a downgrade, to be sure, but for potential Tulo destinations, it could have been a lot worse. Lineup position Tulo has batted leadoff so far, and while this might hurt his RBI, the guys batting around him are more than capable of driving him in. In addition, the leadoff spot gets about .24 more plate appearances per game over the 3rd spot, and .36 plate appearances over the cleanup spot. All in all, I think this is a win. Teammates The Blue Jays are the only team in the league with a higher wOBA than the Rockies, so this has to be called a win. If you control for home and away games, the difference is dramatic - the Jays are .020 wOBA points better than the Rocks on the road. Price This is really where potential Tulo owners should get excited. At least early on, Tulo's price has dropped from ~$4,600 for home games in Coors to $3,500 for his home games in Toronto. There's no way he has an expectation to drop overall fantasy...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, Victiv, Yahoo, and DraftKings 7/31/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, Victiv, Yahoo, and DraftKings 7/31/15 Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Note: I could recommend a number of pitchers at similar prices tonight, so instead I'll give you whom I believe to be the best plays at different tiers of pricing so you can make decisions at different salary points. Enjoy! The big ticket Matt Harvey - FD 9900 DK 11200 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- Was (Gonzalez) L Park- @Nym In the interest of full disclosure, our projection system actually likes Gio Gonzalez quite a bit today too - mostly because it acknowledges that people really underrate how well they can predict who will get the win in a given game. Now, it's going to feel a little awkward for some to pick against the Nats - they've got the best hitter of right handed pitching on the entire world on their team, after all. But it might surprise you to find out that, in spite of Harper's heroics, the Nats are still basically a middle of the pack team when it comes to the wOBA they have against right handed pitching, and have struck out with the 7th highest frequency. And, since one man can't dominate baseball the way he can, say, basketball, Harvey is still a solid start here. I don't know that there's Herculean upside here or anything, but for 50/50s and double ups, I think Harvey is a very solid play. The middle-man Jason Hammel - FD 8200 DK 8100 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- Mil (Jungmann) R Park- @Mil If you're looking for a cheaper option to consider in double-ups, or even a big tournament, consider Hammel. It might surprise you to know, for instance, that Hammel has a 3.40 xFIP and an 8.5 K/9 in the last two seasons. Those are damned solid numbers - the xFIP is better than Harvey's this year - and his K/9 means he'll have decent upside whenever he takes the mound. The Brewers are slightly below average against right handed pitching, making this a fairly safe play as well. He'll be facing Taylor Jungmann today, whose 3.93 xFIP (making him basically a league average starter) paints a much better picture of his true talent than his lofty 2.14 ERA. If things break...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, Victiv, Yahoo, and DraftKings 7/30/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, Victiv, Yahoo, and DraftKings 7/30/15 Games everywhere, trade's a madness. Meanwhile, DFSR continues it's rock-like consistently with the best picks in the industry the moment you need them. A quick note about today - there's a little micro-slate with two noon games tomorrow. I'm not going to throw picks out there for those games. While we have projections for them in our system, I don't want to chew up real estate in this article for a super small slate that most won't play, and I'll instead focus on the big 7:10 slate. Keep reading for picks for the evening games. If you want projections for the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Chris Sale - FD 11800 DK 13200 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- Bos (Wright) R Park- @Bos Your big money pitching play of the day, from where I'm sitting. I considered Arrieta for this spot because I was feeling a little spooked about picking against the Red Sox. Then I realized it wasn't 2005 or whatever. The Red Sox have a couple of guys on their team (Papi and Sandoval) who are basically automatic outs against left handed pitching, and the Red Sox have the 9th worst wOBA in the league against left handed pitching this year. They're fairly tough to strike out, but Chris Sale's ridiculous 11.53 K/9 (second in the majors behind Kershaw) means he can pretty much strike you out regardless. And then there's Steven Wright. His xFIP (4.94) is almost as high as his paltry 5.30 K/9, making him one of the worst guys to take the hill on a consistent basis. I love Sale for double ups and 50/50s. Shelby Miller - FD 8600 DK 9700 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- Phi (Harang) R Park- @Phi Miller's a guy who doesn't often make it on to this list simply because his ERA is so much higher than his xFIP, and he isn't a strikeout monster. So what's he doing here? He's facing the Phillies of Philadelphia. Can we pause for a second and say what a stupid name the Phillies is? Thank God other owners had more creativity, or we'd have wound up with the New Yorkies, the Bostonies, etc. It's almost as bad as the Bills having a picture of a Buffalo on their helmet, even though their mascot isn't a buffalo, it's a dude named Buffalo Bill, who was actually a cowboy. Where was I? The Phillies. They're tied for the worst wOBA the majors against...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel. Yahoo, Victiv and DraftKings 7/26/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel. Yahoo, Victiv and DraftKings 7/26/15 Sunday, Sunday, Someday! This is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Note: Yes, we saw Cole Hamels' game last night. Yes, I picked Arrieta ahead of Hamels. But don't blame our projection system! It liked Hamels better, and I used my lovely eyeball test to go with Arrieta. Scorn me! More serious note: Our system kinda hates the big four guys going today (DeGrom, Greinke, Cole, and Keuchel). Cole, Keuchel, and DeGrom have bad match-ups, and Greinke looks overpriced. One or more of these guys will have a good game, because they are awesome. No doubt about it. But what follows are the best value plays from our projection system's perspective on a points per dollar basis. Good luck! Danny Salazar - FD 8800 DK 10400 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- CWS (Rodon) L Park- @Cle I gave you Carrasco against the Sox yesterday, and got served my lunch. But I'm going back to the well again with Salazar today. Why? Well, his 10.66 K/9 is the fourth best in the majors, and it's no fluke - it's about his average since he came to the major leagues. He's got a sub 3 xFIP this season, and his electric stuff means he'll have the potential to be the highest upside pitcher going any time he takes the mound. He's had some disasters, too. But I like him quite a bit in this match-up with the White Sox. They've struck out in 20.9% of their plate appearances against right handed pitching this season, and have compiled the league's 6th worst wOBA against northpaws. They're also starting Carlos Rodon, who will need a lot of refinement before he strikes fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers. On a day where the true aces are either facing each other (or in bad match-ups), I like Salazar quite a bit. Jason Hammel - FD 8500 DK 8700 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- Phi (Nola) R Park- @Chc It's an odd late-life arrival for Jason Hammel, but we're now on 1.5 seasons and 284 innings of 3.35 xFIP ball. That's damned solid, and nothing to sneeze at. For fantasy purposes, he's also been striking out a guy an inning this season. What's not to like, here? He's not a big...
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, Victiv, Yahoo, and DraftKings 7/25/15
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, Victiv, Yahoo, and DraftKings 7/25/15 A little double-slate action this Saturday! Double slates often mean a short slate with very few options, and a large slate with lots more. Saturday the 25th (and my wedding anniversary, thanks for asking) is one such day. For today's picks, I'm going to go ahead and give you one play for the early slate and a couple for the late slate. Will I be playing daily fantasy baseball on my wedding anniversary? You betcha. Hope you will be, too. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster. Pitchers Early Slate Jake Arrieta - FD 10600 DK 11900 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- Phi (Hamels) L Park- @Chc In the last two seasons, we're on 284 innings pitched at a 2.70 xFIP for Arrieta. His 2.67 number is good for 5th in the majors this season. Frankly, Arrieta is awesome, and one of the underrated pitchers of the last two seasons. Now you throw in the Philadelphia Phillies, the owners of the very worst wOBA against right handed pitching in the majors. While this match-up with Hamels is no sure thing, the Cubs should still be favored given that they have the 4th highest wOBA in the league against left handed pitching. I'm a buyer for 50/50s and double ups here, for sure. Our system also thinks that Cole Hamels is a good play, if you want to take a shot on him. Even though the Cubs can hit, they also strike out a ton, making this a really interesting high upside tournament play. Late Slate Carlos Carrasco - FD 9300 DK 10300 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- CWS (Sale) L Park- @Cle The late slate for pitchers starts to get pretty interesting. Cueto's in Coors, which scratches him off instantly. Harvey's got the Dodgers - the owners of the 2nd highest wOBA against right handed pitching this season. Sale is pitching against Carrasco's Indians - owners of the league's 2nd lowest K rate and 6th lowest wOBA against left handed pitching. And let's be clear - he's so good that you can probably still consider pitching him. But me? I like Carrasco. His 2.73 xFIP is just a breath behind the aforementioned Arrieta's, and his better K/9 (10.08 to Arrieta's 9.30) gives him arguably greater upside. The White Sox aren't as bad as the Phils, but they do own the league's 7th lowest wOBA against against righties. There's obviously a distinctly lowered chance of a win when you're...