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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo 8/23/15

Posted by on Aug 23, 2015 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured | 2 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo 8/23/15 Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo.   Pitchers Michael Wacha - FD 9200 DK 11000 Victiv Opponent- SD (Rea) R Park- @SD So, to be clear, we obviously like Clayton Kershaw best in terms of raw points projected for today's slate. And he's probably the safest option as well. But if you can't make a good lineup around Kershaw's incredibly high salary, I'd take a long look at Michael Wacha. Now, Wacha isn't a classic huge upside play. His 7.74 K/9 is nothing special, and he hasn't gone more than 7 innings in ages. So what gives? Well, first of all, the San Diego Padres give. They've got the 5th lowest wOBA and the 6th highest K% against right handed pitching this season, and are even worse than that at home. They also happen to be starting Colin Rea today. Rea had an xFIP over 4 in A+ ball last season, and was just OK in the minors in 2015. Great chance for a win, great chance for Wacha to pitch for a while, and do well along the way. I like him for any format. Clayton Kershaw - FD 13000 DK 14800 Victiv Opponent- Hou (McCullers) R Park- @Hou Yup, the big old elephant in the room every time he starts. The question is always whether or not you can afford him. I'll give you the pros and cons, and let you decide. The Astros strike out a lot against left handed pitching - their 22.9% rate is the 4th highest in the majors. They've put together the 10th highest wOBA against left handed pitching this season, but their .315 wOBA isn't terrifying or anything. Lance McCullers is a good pitcher, and a win isn't a forgone conclusion or anything. Still, the Astros' strike out rate and Kershaw's general awesomeness make him a fine cash game play, even if he's too expensive for big tournaments. Taijuan Walker - FD 6700 DK 7700 Victiv Opponent- CWS (Danks) L Park- @Sea Ah, your big tournament relief. Walker has a couple of monster starts under his belt this season, including a 23 FanDuel fantasy point performance against the Twins four starts ago. He's also got some average/bad starts. So,...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Victiv 8/22/15

Posted by on Aug 22, 2015 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured | 1 comment

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Victiv 8/22/15 Happy weekend, my friend. If you're new to DFSR, here's how the Saturday picks work. It'd be silly to give you a full set of picks for the tiny slate and the bigger later slate, so here's what I'll do. I'll go ahead and give you one guy to target in the early slate for each position, and a couple of top guys from the late slate. If you want the rest? Go ahead and have a free three day trial of our exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Victiv.   Pitchers Early Slate Danny Salazar - FD 9200 DK 11400 Victiv Opponent- NYY (Severino) R Park- @NYY Oy, the early slate is not pretty for top tier pitching. Both Salazar and the other top price option (Gerrit Cole) are up against very good offensive teams, so let me explain why I went with Salazar for my 50/50 games. Let's actually compare him straight up to Cole. The Giants are have a higher wOBA against right handed pitching and strike out less against RHP than the Yankees do. Chris Heston is a better pitcher than Luis Severino. On the other side, Cole is probably a better pitcher than Salazar straight up (though the gap is smaller than you think), and Yankee Stadium is a tougher place to pitch than Pittsburgh. Really, the likelihood that Salazar can get the W and his higher K rate are what push him to the top of the heap for me, here. He also scored 18 FanDuel fantasy points against the Yankees two starts ago. But no one will blame you if you just flip a coin. Late Slate Sonny Gray - FD 10700 DK 11600 Victiv Opponent- TB (Ramirez) R Park- @Oak If safety is your game, I'm all over Sonny Gray, here. The Rays have struck out at the 4th highest rate in the majors against right handed pitching, and have managed just the 3rd worst wOBA against righties. Oakland is a fantastic place to pitch, and while Erasmo Ramirez has improved, his 4.05 xFIP is still below league average. Gray isn't an ace's ace or anything - far from it. His 2.06 ERA is largely luck driven, but this is one of those cases where the excellent match-up makes up the difference between Gray's ERA inflated price and his true value. Let's be clear, though - this is strictly a 50/50 and double-up play. Carlos Rodon - FD 6800 DK 7100 Victiv Opponent- Sea (Nuno) L Park- @Sea Oh man,...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo 8/17/15

Posted by on Aug 16, 2015 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo 8/17/15 Happy Monday, y'all! If you're new to this column, I'm going to give you a few plays at each position that you can consider in your daily fantasy baseball contests. Even though it's a short slate, I still won't be able to hit every acceptable play for the day. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo.   Pitchers Gerrit Cole - FD 10200 DK 11200 Victiv Opponent- Ari (Hellickson) R Park- @Pit Alright, on a short slate, you're going to need to try and find some safety at the pitcher position in your double-ups and 50/50s. On Monday, that's going to mean grabbing the Pirates' ace at home against the Diamondbacks. Cole's a strike-out per inning guy with the 13th best xFIP in the major leagues, and he should have a good match-up with the perennially below league average Jeremy Hellickson. Today he'll be facing the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are one of those blessing/curse teams. The D-Backs have struck out at the 9th highest rate against opposing righties this season, but they've also put together the 10th highest wOBA. Worth noting, however, is that they'll be away from their friendly home hitter's environment and in the less friendly PNC Park. I'll take my chances with Cole on a day really lacking a pristine ace match-up. Andrew Heaney - FD 7100 DK 8600 Victiv Opponent- CWS (Rodon) L Park- @ana Alright, this one clearly lands strictly in big tournament punt territory, but if you want a cheap guy who could flash some upside, I'd take a look at Heaney. Heaney himself isn't a whole lot to look at. His sub 7 K/9 doesn't scream "high upside" or anything, so I'll need to explain a bit. When we're thinking about upside at the pitcher spot in daily fantasy baseball, we're thinking strictly in terms of points per dollar. If Heaney were to go 7 innings of shut out ball with 4 Ks and get a W, he'd score 15 points. This would be a great result on a $7,100 FanDuel salary. Not only is he cheap, he's also facing a team that really can't hit. The White Sox are dead last in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching (an awful .276), and have struck out at the 11th highest rate. Like I said, a guy who gives up this much contact can't be said to be safe, but for big tourneys? Worth a shot....

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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo 8/16/15

Posted by on Aug 16, 2015 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo 8/16/15 Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo.   Pitchers A quick note before we begin: I'm just going to give you one guy in a few different price tiers. So while I like guys like Matt Harvey against Pittsburgh, I like the listed guy (Sale) a bit more. Cool? Let's do this. Chris Sale - FD 11200 DK 11600 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- Chc (Haren) R Park- @Cws Well, my friends, it honestly doesn't get any safer when it comes to a 50/50 or double-up play. Famous last words, obviously, but there really isn't much not to like here. Chris Sale is the owner of the majors' second highest xFIP, Dan Haren is the owner of the majors' 7th worst. The Cubs have struck out a remarkable 23.3% of the time against left handed pitching this season, which is just 1% below the league leading Padres. The fly in the ointment, if you want to call it that, is that the Cubs have been about league average against left handed pitching in terms of wOBA. But let's not be overly picky here. I won't consider playing anyone else in formats where I need to finish in the top half to score, and you can make an argument for playing him in big tournaments too honestly. Carlos Martinez - FD 9900 DK 9100 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- Mia (Phelps) R Park- @Stl Looking down the ladder a bit price-wise, my eyes come to a rest on young Carlos Martinez. While he's not a pitcher of the same caliber of the elite arms going today, the price savings are actually pretty significant, and he has arguably as much upside. His 3.33 xFIP is still a top 20 number in the majors, and he's been a strike-out per inning guy with 20 FanDuel points upside. He's also got some stinkers on his resume as well. Still, if you're looking for a high upside play that many will ignore, he's worth a look. The Marlins are dead last in the league in wOBA against right handed pitching this season, and David Phelps and his 4.34 xFIP have been a fair mess this season. Yup, I'm pretty into this one. Shelby Miller - FD 8100...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo 8/11/15

Posted by on Aug 11, 2015 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo 8/11/15 Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo.   Pitchers Madison Bumgarner - FD 11900 DK 11100 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- Hou (Kazmir) L Park- @SF Matt Harvey - FD 11200 DK 10900 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- Col (Rusin) L Park- @Nym It feels a little bit like a cop-out to give you both of these guys at the top of the list, but give me a moment to explain. Our projection system thinks they're basically a coin flip, and I tend to agree. The Rockies can hit right handed pitching, and the Astros can hit left handed pitching. But both of them strike out a phenomenal amount of time (on the road for the Rockies, against lefties for the Astros). Both of these games are in good pitcher's parks, though San Francisco is a significantly better pitching environment even than Citi Field. On the other hand, Harvey seems much more likely to get a win against Rusin than Bumgarner is against Kazmir. What tips the scales toward Bumgarner, for me, is simply that he's a better pitcher. He strikes out more guys, and his xFIP is .30 runs better than Harvey's. Still, though, I can picture playing either here, and didn't want to overstate the case in either direction. A reasonably 50/50 strategy would be to play basically the same lineups and go half and half. Taylor Jungmann - FD 8400 DK 8700 Victiv Yahoo Opponent- Chc (Haren) R Park- @ChC If you're looking to cut in a different direction in a big tournament, consider Taylor Jungmann. He's significantly less off the radar than he was before his last start, but our projection system has been something of a believer (at least on these prices) for a while. He's a strong ground-ball pitcher who's managed the wildness he showed in the minors significantly, and has put together a few very high end starts in the last month or so. And really, there's no higher upside match-up than taking a righty against the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs have struck out in an unreal 24.3% of their plate appearances against right handed pitching this season, the very highest number in the league, and the Dan Haren bubble has been in the process...

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