What makes a good NBA DFS “punt” or value play?

What makes a good NBA DFS "punt" or value play? If you've played NBA DFS for any stretch of time, you've undoubtedly been in the position of trying to evaluate what it means that some relatively unknown (or underplayed) player is joining the starting lineup. Sometimes this happens because a player gets injured, sometimes this happens because a player gets benched or traded, and sometimes it just happens due to a late scratch. But the feeling is the same - it's 20 minutes to lineup lock, and a cheap player is starting for the first time. How do we evaluate whether he's a good play or not? In DFS, players who are very cheap thanks to a big time recent change in opportunity are known as "punt" plays, and it's our job to figure out which of them are worth it, and which are worth passing on. This article will explain what our evaluation process is like when we determine which cheap plays are worth it, and which are worth passing on. Evaluating a player's track record Not all punts are created equally. Let's start our article with two seemingly similar, but very different situations. In January, the Bucks came out and said that Thon Maker was going to get his very first start thanks to Jabari Parker being benched to start the game for disciplinary reasons. Around the same time, in New Orleans, Anthony Davis had been ruled out thanks to (yet another) injury, and Terrence Jones was going to step into the starting line-up. We played Jones everywhere while ignoring the Maker news completely, and were handsomely rewarded. How did we know who was better, and who was worse? Let's dive into the process. Here's the quick set of questions we use to evaluate players when they seem to be moving into greater opportunity. 1) How has a player performed on a points-per-minute basis in the past? 2) How is this player currently used within the context of his team? 3) Do we know how he's performed when given the starting role in the past? 4) Does his team have a lot of other options if he gets off to a slow start? 5) How big a hole is being left by the player the punt is replacing? 6) Will the player's role change when he moves into the starting lineup? 7) Is the player even that cheap? 8) Who am I punting away from? Let's take a look at each of these examples to see what we mean. 1) How has a player performed on a points-per-minute basis in the past? Jones and Maker are very instructive for this example. Terrence Jones has averaged 23 fantasy...