GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 13 on FanDuel and DraftKings
GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 13 on FanDuel and DraftKings Welcome back football fans. Earlier in the week, Doug went over his top cash plays in the Cash Game Article and then he teamed up with James as they broke down every game in the NFL Mega Podcast. I will now take a look at some possible low-owned leverage plays that can help us separate ourselves in large field GPP's. Let's get started! When projecting ownership for GPP purposes, I use the tools over at FanShareSports. They curate thousands of pieces of content in articles, tweets, videos, podcasts, etc and put it all together into easy to use tools for building DFS lineups. Check them out today and use promo code "DFSR" for 20% off your membership. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Mark Ingram FD 7500 DK 6000 Opponent SF Proj Points FD - 13.87 DK - 14.27 Looking at the top tier running backs, it appears the ownership will mostly be sitting with four backs(McCaffrey, Fournette, Barkley, Bell) who are all projected for double-digit ownership. That opens some opportunities to pivot in GPP and I will start with Mark Ingram who is on pace for a career-year in 2019. He comes into this game averaging 5.2 yards per carry which has a lot to do with the holes created by the elite running ability of Lamar Jackson but you also have to consider Ingram is averaging over 3.0 yards per carry after contact. While the matchup against the 49ers #2 overall DVOA defense does not seem like a great spot to target consider that they have been elite against the pass(#2 DVOA pass defense) but just league-average against the run(#16 DVOA rush defense). The Ravens go into this marquee matchup as 5.5-point home favorites in a game with the fourth-highest total(45.5) on the slate. Ingram has currently only seen a few tags on FanShareSports and if that trend continues he will likely be around 5% or less owned in GPP's and a great pivot with a ton of upside. Tyreek Hill FD 8300 DK 8900 Opponent OAK Proj Points FD - 17.63 DK - 20.75 The wide receiver position is an interesting one on this shortened main slate due to the three games on Thanksgiving and two more on Sunday and Monday night. There is no Thomas, Cooper, Julio, Diggs, Lockett, Edelman, or Hopkins. With all those names missing from the main slate, Tyreek Hill sits atop the wideout salary and by a sizeable...
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 13 – 11/28/19
Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 13 - 11/28/19 Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Quarterbacks Carson Wentz FD 7300 DK 5800 Opponent MIA Proj Points FD - 20.4 DK - 20.74 The recipe of starting quarterbacks against the Miami Dolphins this season has been, generally, a winning strategy and we have a few more weeks to put it into practice. The last two weeks have been especially great for opposition QBs with Baker Mayfield putting up 27.5 DraftKings points in Week 12 and Josh Allen going for 33.84 in Week 11. Now Wentz will get a turn. Wentz completed 73% of his passes in Week 12 against the Seahawks though threw two interceptions and missed a couple of very easy throws, one that would have almost definitely been a Miles Sanders touchdown. This is a smash spot for Wentz though and he’s the 10th most expensive QB on DK and 12th on FanDuel. It’s just too good a value considering the opponent and works perfectly for fitting in some of the very expensive skill position guys at RB and WR. Patrick Mahomes FD 8600 DK 7400 Opponent OAK Proj Points FD - 23.05 DK - 24.26 He’s listed second here only because of price. Mahomes, coming off a bye week with a fully healthy receiving corps is in a great spot to crush in Week 13. Oakland has the 29th ranked defense in DVOA this season and are coming off a week in which Sam Darnold picked them apart. Mahomes should have his way here and the Chiefs have, deservedly, the highest implied total of Sunday’s main slate at 30.5. He looked, dare-I-say-it, human against the Chargers in Week 11, but that was following a 446 yard, 3 TD performance against the Titans in Week 10. He has a 19:2 TD:INT rate on the season and even got out in the running game two weeks ago with 59 yards, his highest of the season. Other Thoughts I don’t want to run Lamar Jackson into the 49ers defense this week, but man if there was any quarterback to do it with it would be Jackson. He just continues the world crushing tour this season following a dismantling of the Rams on Monday night. We had Jameis Winston as a borderline cash play for Week 12 and he was very Jameis-y in his final line. He got to 300+ yards...
DFS NFL Podcast – Week 13 Game-By-Game Breakdown for FanDuel and DraftKings 11/28/19
DFS NFL Podcast - Week 13 Game-By-Game Breakdown for FanDuel and DraftKings 11/28/19 Coming at you Thanksgiving morning, the DFSR crew looks at the Week 13 main slate for their DFS NFL Podcast for FanDuel and DraftKings. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL, NHL and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! The guys go through every game on the main slate, looking at the cash vs GPP options, betting lines, injury news and much more for a packed week of football. Highlights include Carson Wentz and the Eagles in a great matchup agianst the Dolphins, Mahomes looking like maybe the chalk play at QB what do you do with Christian McCaffrey's price. All of this and much more on an hour-long Week 13 game-by-game breakdown for FanDuel and DraftKings. Subscribe to this podcast on iTunesListen on Stitcher Listen on Spotify The DFSR Podcasts are part of the Overtime Media Podcast...
Game by Game Breakdown for Thanksgiving 2019 on FanDuel and DraftKings
Game by Game Breakdown for Thanksgiving 2019 on FanDuel and DraftKings Happy Turkey Day! We've got three real stinkers on the slate today, but we aren't worried about watching good games, we want to win some money at DFS! And even on a tough slate, that's absolutely a possibility. Let's get you in and out and back to that loving family of yours! Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now! START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Chicago Bears at the Detroit Lions The Bears are favored by 3 in a game with a 38.5 point total. Here's one for the ages. Driskel! Trubisky! A cheese plate, and small talk with your early guests! What more could you ask for? Still, on a three game slate we can't really just cross anything off, so let's look at a few options here. The Detroit Lions Bo Scarbrough FD 6100 DK 4700 Opponent CHI Proj Points FD - 11.15 DK - 10.82 The Lions finally seem to have made up their mind about what to do at running back, and last week Scarbrough had 19 touches for 98 yards. It just looks like they don't totally want to trust Driskel, and if that's the case he could be in line for the, ahem, Lion's share of the workload once again. The troubling thing, of course, is that the Bears have a great defense and Scarbrough himself isn't exactly amazing. On a three game slate, though, a cheap running back could be just what the doctor ordered. Marvin Jones FD 6400 DK 5300 Opponent CHI Proj Points FD - 12.53 DK - 14.67 Kenny Golladay FD 7100 DK 6100 Opponent CHI Proj Points FD - 14.82 DK - 16.98 This is as good as the getting gets from this game, at least on FanDuel. There aren't a lot of nice things to say about these two, but let's see how we do. First, the bad. Chicago is a top 6 defense by DVOA's standards. The Lions will likely be playing Jeff Driskel, and even he isn't a sure thing. Not exactly what you're looking for. On the good side, though, these two accounted for 16 of Driskel's 33 attempts last week, with Jones getting more volume and Golladay being more efficient. The big thing here is likely the price tier these guys fall into. Our lineup optimizer thinks you sort of need an extra WR in this price range, and you don't have a lot...
GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 12 on FanDuel and DraftKings
GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 12 on FanDuel and DraftKings Welcome back football fans. James covered the top cash game plays for Week 12 in his Cash Game Article and then Doug joined him on the Mega Podcast where they broke down every game and relevant DFS play. I will now take a look at some leverage plays that could be possibly low owned making them excellent GPP plays. Let's get started. When projecting ownership for GPP purposes, I use the tools over at FanShareSports. They curate thousands of pieces of content in articles, tweets, videos, podcasts, etc and put it all together into easy to use tools for building DFS lineups. Check them out today and use promo code "DFSR" for 20% off your membership. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! James White FD 6100 DK 5300 Opponent DAL Proj Points FD - 9.8 DK - 12.02 I will start with James White who won't be extremely low owned but at 13th in tags on FanShare, will most definitely be outside the Top 10 in ownership at the position. With the Patriots sitting as 6.5-point home favorites, you would think the game script would favor Sony Michel but he has been absolutely terrible lately averaging just 41.8 rushing yards per game over his last four games. While White has not flashed big-game upside yet in 2019 he has been very consistent averaging 12.9 DK/10.3 FD points per game on just 9.4 touches per game. The matchup also favors White over Michel as the Cowboys 17th ranked DVOA rush defense has allowed the 11th fewest rushing yards to running backs but the 6th most receiving yards. With the consistency and lack of mid-range options with that tag, I would consider White a cash-game play and feel we could also see the ceiling game at a reduced ownership which is perfect for GPP formats. Joe Mixon FD 6700 DK 5900 Opponent PIT Proj Points FD - 13.07 DK - 14.08 Everything about this game says stay away for fantasy as it has the second-lowest Vegas total(38.5) on the slate between two teams who rank bottom 5 in pace on the season. While I 100% agree with the fade for cash games, I think there is some opportunity to get some very low ownership on a talented player in Joe Mixon. It has been a roller coaster ride for Mixon all season in terms not only production but usage as well but the good news is that...