NFL Consistency - A look back at 2018's Quarterbacks Leading into the season, we’ve been looking at putting together something of a primer for Week 1. We started with an early look at Week 1 pricing with early FanDuel and DraftKings optimal lineups. Then it was on to rushing attacks and runnings backs as well as passing games to target heading into the first week of the season. Over the next few articles we’ll look at the consistency or volatility around certain players at each position. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! We’ll do this by comparing the DraftKings coefficient of variation (CV - standard deviation / average points) of each player’s performance over the course of the year. This will allow us to compare players at each position to their peers. The lower the CV, the more consistent the player was over the course of the year. The average DraftKings points, kind of speaks for itself. For quarterbacks, I took the top 15 average weekly scorers who started eight or more games in 2017. Check out the graph below. Takeaways Models of Consistency Patrick Mahomes FD 8700 DK 7200 Opponent JAX Proj Points FD - 21.14 DK - 22.02 Um, what? Mahomes is living so far to the right of this graph that the formatting literally cut his name off. Sure, I could have fixed it, but I appreciated the metaphor here. He was so much better than every other quarterback that they couldn’t even see fully him. It’s not news that he had a historic season, dwarfing the rest of the competition by an epic landslide. But he was also about as consistent as it comes on a week-to-week basis. Only Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson had lower CVs and neither played full seasons. It stands to reason each of their numbers would have only trended up if given more run. I don’t believe Mahomes’s TD pace is replicable, but I thought the same thing at the beginning of last season as well and was promptly proven wrong. Lamar Jackson FD 7400 DK 6000 Opponent MIA Proj Points FD - 19.48 DK - 20.15 Speaking of Lamar Jackson,I wrote about Lamar Jackson and his potential as a Week 1 play already so go back and check that out for a rehash on how awesome his running statistics were last season. It remains to be seen if he can keep that going for an entire season as defenses adjust to the attack. But the rushing attempts and...

Prepping For Week 1 - Zeke News, Change of scenery guys and a rant on Andrew Luck - 8/30/19 The DFSR NFL crew of Doug Norrie and James Davis is back for their second episode of the season, getting you prepped and ready for Week 1 on DraftKings and FanDuel. The season is now right around the corner and the guys are still looking at some of the news that's relevant for the DFS landscape. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! The DFSR NFL Podcast is back! It’s been a long offseason with plenty of player movement, news, speculation and much more. And the guys are excited to be back talking footballs and preparing for Week 1 on FanDuel and DraftKings. They start with the obvious and that's the heightening speculation that Ezekiel Elliott will miss Week 1 of the season. That would put Tony Pollard firmly in the driver seat of the Dallas backfield and likely make him the most highly-owned player on the slate considering his price point. There's also discussion of whether one could even trust Zeke in Week 1 after sitting out this long were he to come back. After that, they are looking at change-of-scenery/ coming back from injury guys and how that could look for their own stat lines plus those around them. They talk about Jimmy Garoppolo and the receivers in San Fran, Ryan Fitzpatrick looking at the starting nod for the Dolphins and Nick Foles and Dede Westbrook in Jacksonville. And finally, they finish things off with a long rant about the Andrew Luck retirement, his presser, crappy fans, bad takes and the right to live your life as you choose. It's a packed NFL podcast for DraftKings, FanDuel and life! Subscribe to this podcast on...

Passing Attacks to Target for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 1 on FanDuel and DraftKings Week 1 is breathing down our necks, but we are going to have you all set with plenty of time to spare before that first kickoff on Sunday. We've given an early look at some way-too-early values and optimal lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings. There was also a look at rushing attacks and running backs to target based at Vegas Spreads and volume. Now, let's take a look at some of the top passing attacks who stand out as strong plays for week one. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs.  San Francisco 49ers Jameis Winston FD 7500 DK 6600 Opponent SF Proj Points FD - 19.81 DK - 20.49 Mike Evans FD 7900 DK 7900 Opponent SF Proj Points FD - 15.16 DK - 17.59 Chris Godwin FD 6900 DK 6200 Opponent SF Proj Points FD - 12.24 DK - 14.45 The Buccaneers posted a disappointing 5-11 record in 2018 but from a fantasy perspective, they were nearly an every-week target in the passing game. With one of the worst defenses in the league allowing 29 points per game (31st overall), they trailed so many games, forcing them to throw a ton (4th most attempts) and ended up leading the league with an average of 320.3 passing yards per game. Their defensive outlook is not a whole a lot better in 2019 so fire up the Bucs early and often. Their Week 1 matchup against the 49ers has the third-highest total (49) on the board. It starts at the quarterback position with Jameis Winston who is coming off an inconsistent season overall but finished strong (fantasy-wise) with back to back 300+ yards games. In fact, since taking over as starter again in Week 11, he had three 300+ yard games, four multi-TD games, and only three interceptions in the final six games (did not play week 17).  From Week 11 on, Jameis was QB5 in DraftKings points, and was an elite fantasy option. With a Bucs run game led by Peyton Barber, I am expecting a ton of attempts and Winston loves to chuck it deep (annually Top 10 in yards per attempt) adding to his upside. Despite finishing 13th in targets per game(8.7), Mike Evans ended up third behind only Julio and Hopkins with an average of 95.3 receiving yards per game and also posted a career-high 62.3% catch rate(53% average going into 2018 season). He makes contested catches...

Rushing Attacks to Target in Daily Fantasy NFL Week 1 for FanDuel and DraftKings We already covered some early looks at optimal NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings when both sites released prices. Now let's start drilling down a little further with some rushing attacks in EV+ spots for Week 1. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! A general rule of thumb in NFL DFS cash games is to begin targeting running backs and running attacks that are in advantageous situations. This is an oversimplification of course but there are some basic metrics we can look at ahead of time to determine whether a running back is in a "good spot." Vegas lines continue to tell us quite a lot about expectation leading into a game. The following two graphs show the Vegas spread a team entered a game with and where the average rushing attempts and yards landed. See that steady downward trajectory as the Vegas line became less favorable for a team? As a quick and dirty rule, we want to target running backs on the left side, those who are favored, preferably at home. It makes sense; teams who come in as heavy favorites are typically better, get a lead early and can run the game out late. Yes, there are diminishing returns for RB1s as the lead extends too far. At some point, teams will start giving their back-ups reps. But for the most part, we want our running backs to be on the favored team. Understanding all of this, there are some key spots that stand out for Week 1. Ravens -4.5 at Dolphins Lamar Jackson FD 7400 DK 6000 Opponent MIA Proj Points FD - 18.64 DK - 19.28 Mark Ingram FD 6600 DK 5100 Opponent MIA Proj Points FD - 11.69 DK - 12.69 From Week 11 on, when he took over the starting quarterback role for the Ravens, Lamar Jackson was 7th overall (that’s the entire NFL) in total rushing yards (556) from scrimmage and sixth in total carries (119). The Ravens’ running back Gus Edwards? He was fourth in both yards (654) and carries (122). The Ravens had a plan to keep it on the ground and it worked. They won six of their final seven games on their way to the playoffs. Rest assured they’ll take a similar approach this season. They enter the season as -4 home favorites against a Dolphins’ team gashed by the rush in 2018. Miami allowed the second-most total rushing yards and were...

Five Too-Early DraftKings and FanDuel Week 1 DFS Plays - 8/13/18 Last week FanDuel and DraftKings released their prices for Week 1 about a month early. That gives us a long runway to start fiddling with lineups while we wait for the slog of the preseason to come to a merciful end. In the meantime, let’s take a look at some early optimal lineups and see where our system is possibly looking to start the season.  Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL and MLB optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! I ran the top 50 lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings. The percentages next to each name are how often they appeared in those lineups.  DraftKings Top 2 Lineups FanDuel Top 2 Lineups Is the Browns’ Hype Train Enough to Play Baker? Baker Mayfield FD 7900 DK 6400 Opponent TENProj Points FD - 21.32 DK - 21.79The Browns come into the season with unbelievable amounts of hype, most of it deserving with the upgrades they made in the offseason. From Week 11 on last season, Baker Mayfield scored the seventh-most fantasy points in the league among quarterbacks and now has a top 5 (or higher?) wide receiver at his disposal in Odell Beckham Jr. The latter finally gets a quarterback with a real-life NFL arm and it stands to reason the Browns step on the gas early and often in Week 1 with their new toys. We tend to like running quarterbacks a bit more for cash games. Mayfield *only* ran for 131 yards in 2018 though did at least show the ability to get out of the pocket when necessary. The Browns have the fifth-highest implied total on the main slate (25.5) and Baker sure seems like a safe option to open the season. Expensive Volume RBs on Bad Teams As of this printing, Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon are still holding out/demanding trades, putting their respective availability for Week 1 in serious doubt. If either (or both) sit there’s almost assuredly going to be punt running back plays to slot in. That’s why this is the “way too early” edition of the picks. Saquon Barkley FD 9200 DK 9000 Opponent DALProj Points FD - 20.38 DK - 23.05Barkley was second in the league behind Ezekiel Elliott in total running back usage (rushing attempts + receiving targets) with 382 looks in 2018. This was 11% more than the next closest running back, Christian McCaffrey, who had 343. The Giants were borderline negligent with Barkley’s usage considering how bad the team was and there’s no reason to...