DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 5/25/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 5/25/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Max Scherzer FD - P 11000 DK - SP 10700 Opponent - CIN (Tyler Mahle) Park - WSH FD - 41.89 DK - 23.36 It is a terrific slate for pitching but I am iffy on paying up for deGrom who returns from the IL so instead I will turn to Mad Max as my top option. He has been elite in the month of May giving up just four total earned runs(1.37 ERA/2.45 xFIP) with an eye-popping 39% K rate. He gets a great shot to keep the good times rolling as a -165 home favorite against the struggling Reds who have dropped six of their last seven scoring just 3.6 runs per game and striking out 25% of the time. Fire up Scherzer in all formats. Clayton Kershaw FD - P 10000 DK - SP 8000 Opponent - HOU (Zack Greinke) Park - HOU FD - 34.18 DK - 18.42 Look. I get the Astros are a Top 3 team against left-handed pitching and in no way is Kershaw a safe play on FanDuel but this DraftKings price is straight up laughable. There have been a few hiccups along the way but overall, he is having a good start to the season with a 3.18 ERA/3.15 xFIP to go along with a 29% K rate. At a minimum, we are looking for a 2x return in cash games(16 pts) on DraftKings and he has provided 20+ DK points in eight of his 10 starts. I hate the matchup but cannot ignore the price making Kershaw easily my top SP2 tonight. Catcher/First Base Matt Olson FD - 1B 3600 DK - 1B 4600 Opponent - SEA (Logan Gilbert) Park - OAK FD - 11.18 DK - 8.28 As of writing this, Oakland is outside the Top 5 in implied runs but easily one of my favorite teams to target in all formats. It starts with the matchup against struggling rookie Logan Gilbert who has given up nine hits and seven earned runs through his first two starts(6.2 IP). For Olson, he checks off almost all boxes starting with recent play as he comes in red-hot with hits in seven of his last eight games including two doubles and four home runs. To be honest, he has played great all season with a .388 wOBA/156 wRC+, and best of all he comes at a buy-low price as the 11th and...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 5/24/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 5/24/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Blake Snell FD - P 9300 DK - SP 8900 Opponent - MIL (Brandon Woodruff) Park - MIL FD - 36.34 DK - 20.11 What a dream buy-low opportunity. After floundering for most of the beginning of the season, Snell roared back with a 6 IP, 11 K, 1 ER start against the Rockies his last time out. If he's still capable of starts like that, these prices are arguably 25% too low. The Brewers, meanwhile, are a fantastic match-up. They've struck out at the 6th highest rate this season while amassing the 3rd worst wOBA. I love Snell in every format at these prices. Frankie Montas FD - P 8400 DK - SP 6200 Opponent - SEA (Yusei Kikuchi) Park - OAK FD - 35.17 DK - 18.65 While it's true that Montas became overrated during his run-hot 2019 campaign, he's still a pretty good pitcher that we can consider on a slate where the best pitchers are over-priced. He's still a 28 year old pitcher that has struck out almost exactly a batter per inning for his career, and the match-up here looks fanastic as well. The Mariners pair the league's worst wOBA with the 5th highest strikeout rate, making Montas a fantastic pitcher 2 option on DraftKings. If you must pay up at pitcher, consider Lance Lynn. Catcher/First Base José Abreu FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 5100 Opponent - STL (Kwang Hyun Kim) Park - CHW FD - 11.27 DK - 8.53 With an .810 OPS, it hasn't been a banner year for the White Sox's Cuban first baseman. He has run .026 below his career BABIP levels, though, so his true performance this year probably lies north of the .810 OPS. As for the match-up, Kwang Hyun Kim is actually pretty good! He's run very hot on the ERA, but the 4.2 career xFIP so far is more than respectable for a guy who joined the Majors at the age of 31. You'll forgive me if I trust Abreu here, though, whose OPS goes .077 points higher with the platoon in his favor. C.J. Cron FD - 1B 2800 DK - 1B 4000 Opponent - NYM (David Peterson) Park - NYM FD - 8.95 DK - 6.75 If you're like most of the fantasy community, you've been in a deep sleep when it comes to CJ Cron this year. CJ has an outstanding...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 5/23/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 5/23/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Max Fried FD 8500 DK 8600 Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - PITFD - 35.83 DK - 18.64 Fried enters as a -199 home favorite in this one, the best moneyline odds on the main slate. He's striking out more than 10 batters per nine though the walks remain an issue. Don't let the 5+ ERA fool you, the xFIP is about 1.5 runs lower. And now he gets a bottom-feeding Pirates offense with barely a bat in it. This is a great spot for Fried and we are buying low on him because his BABIP is way too high and his LOB% is way too low. Freddy Peralta FD - P 9900 DK - SP 10500 Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - CINFD - 38.37 DK - 21.26 This isn’t a great matchup for Peralta but there isn’t a ton of top-end talent taking the mound on the main slate for Sunday. Peralta might be as close as we get. He’s struck out 14 batters per nine this season good for a 39% K rate which is about as good as it gets in baseball. His 3.26 xFIP isn’t as good as the low 2’s ERA would suggest, but it’s still damn good. He’s a slight favorite against the Reds who have been a very good offense this season. And it’s in a good hitter’s park, but again, in terms of strikeout upside, Peralta is the best bet on the main slate. Cristian Javier FD - P 9100 DK - SP 9200 Opponent - TEX (Mike Foltynewicz) Park - TEXFD - 34.76 DK - 18.81 The Rangers are a bottom-third offensive team on the season and are striking out more than 26% of the time as a club. That’s going to have Javier in a good spot in the early games where he opens as a -163 road favorite. On the season, Javier is striking out close to 11 batters per nine and has kept the walks relatively in check. In terms of win expectation, his number is about as good as you’ll find on this slate and the cost isn’t prohibitive. He could be the chalk arm on the main slate. Jameson Taillon FD - P 6700 DK - SP 8100 Opponent - CHW (Dallas Keuchel) Park - NYYFD - 30.97 DK - 16.62 Taillon’s 5/3 ERA is, of course, bad. But his xFIP is nearly...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 5/21/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 5/21/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Afternoon slate Lance McCullers Jr. FD - P 9400 DK - SP 9500 Opponent - TEX (Jordan Lyles) Park - TEXFD - 37.33 DK - 20.16 McCullers is one of the top options for the afternoon slate of games, coming in as a -174 road favorite against the Rangers. The run line is on the lower side, starting at 8.5 and McCullers looks fully healthy this season. He’s striking out more than 10 batters per nine on the season with an ERA under 3.00. The xFIP is a little higher and he’s gotten a bit lucky with the BABIP which is masking the walk rate just a tad. But he gets a Rangers offense that’s currently in the bottom-third of the league and strikes out more than 26% of the time. Shane Bieber (FD $11500 DK $11200) is the expenseive option here, but it’s hard to argue with him even at these price points. Evening slate Walker Buehler FD - P 10500 DK - SP 11000 Opponent - SF (Undecided) Park - SFFD - 35.18 DK - 19.38 Buehler isn’t striking batters out at the same rate he did over the last two seasons, with the K% under 28% for the first time in a while. But he’s mitigated that some by drastically reducing his walks per nine innings. The control has been elite and he’s sporting a 3.26 xFIP on the season. The Giants offense has actually been good this season with some turn-back-the-clock seasons from a few of their dudes. But Walker is still a value on this evening slate of games. He’s not cheap, but he’s the best arm going on this slate. Catcher/First Base Afternoon slate Josh Bell FD - 1B 3500 DK - 1B 4000 Opponent - BAL (Bruce Zimmermann) Park - WSHFD - 11.56 DK - 8.63 Bell has come out of the gate struggling and it’s been a carryover from his last season as well. There’s a good chance we aren’t going to see him return to the 2019 form when he cranked out 37 home runs. That season is looking like a blip for sure. But he’s still hitting in the middle of this Nationals’ lineup and they get one of the better matchups of the day against the lefty Bruce Zimmermann. Evening slate Danny Santana FD - DK - 1B 2400 Opponent - PHI (Spencer Howard) Park - PHIFD - 0...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 5/21/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 5/21/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Trevor Bauer FD - P 11800 DK - SP 11900 Opponent - SF (Alex Wood) Park - SF FD - 44.15 DK - 24.29 First of all, I get the Giants put up a silly 19 runs yesterday but Bauer easily has the best matchup of the top tier starting pitchers tonight. On the season, the Giants actually went into that game sitting at exactly the league average in terms of wRC+(100) but what stands out the most is the 26% K rate on the season(6th most). For Bauer, he has been terrific in his first season with the Dodgers holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in eight straight and enters the night with a 2.20 ERA/3.08 xFIP and an elite 35% K rate. All things considered, Bauer is my to pitcher in all formats. Mike Minor FD - P 7600 DK - SP 7500 Opponent - DET (Jose Urena) Park - KC FD - 30.75 DK - 16.05 To fit Bauer on DraftKings at nearly $12K, we are going to need to find some value and Minor stands out for a couple of reasons. The Royals open as pretty big -150 favorites giving Minor some nice win equity and he has qualified for a win(5+ innings) in five of his last six starts. He has not been consistent at all but is coming off a great start limiting the White Sox to two hits and now gets an elite matchup vs. the Tigers who rank dead last vs. lefties in wOBA(.251), wRC+(58), and K rate(34%). He is my top value SP2 on DraftKings tonight. Also Consider: Stephen Strasburg(WAS) who is coming off the IL but did throw 75 pitches in his rehab start so there is a chance he goes 90+ pitches and is cheap on DraftKings making for big PTS/$ upside Catcher/First Base C.J. Cron FD - 1B 3300 DK - 1B 3800 Opponent - ARI (Riley Smith) Park - COL FD - 13.27 DK - 10 I am not prioritizing the Rockies at home in Coors as I have in previous seasons with their well-documented struggles but C.J. Cron is one name that jumps off the page. While almost the entire team is overpriced due to the "Coors factor", C.J. Cron has fallen under the radar since his return from the IL. in two games back, he has gone 3 for 7 with a double while...