DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/22/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/22/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Charlie Morton FD - P 8800 DK - SP 8700 Opponent - PHI (Matt Moore) Park - PHI FD - 32.14 DK - 17.66 We get yet another slate full of question marks at the pitcher position so I will be looking for value to help fit more bats. It starts with Charlie Morton who gives us a nice floor on strikeouts alone as he has tallied seven or more in six straight starts and once again comes at a sub $9K price on DraftKings. The Phillies have been slightly above-average on offense lately but have been worse (14% wRC+ difference) against right-handed pitching. All things considered, Morton is my top PTS/$ play on the mound and in play in all formats. Sean Manaea FD - P 9100 DK - SP 9600 Opponent - SEA (Chris Flexen) Park - SEA FD - 30.63 DK - 15.81 I am not into paying up for Buehler against the Division-leading Giants so I will take the discount and ride with Manaea. Despite some average outings in July, he has still posted an elite 2.37 ERA/3.44 xFIP over his last 10 starts while striking out 27% of batters. He now faces a below-average Mariners offense(.295 wOBA/90 wRC+) that strikes out 27% of the time. I will be pairing Manaea with Morton on DraftKings and I also lean Manaea slightly on FanDuel as my top pitcher overall. Catcher/First Base Max Muncy FD - 1B 3900 DK - 1B/2B 5700 Opponent - SF (Anthony DeSclafani) Park - LAD FD - 12.5 DK - 9.21 The first base position is loaded at the top so I will split hairs and go with Muncy who comes a bit cheaper than Olson and has much better splits than Freeman and his lefty/lefty matchup. Muncy's bat has been relied on heavily this season with injuries and down season for other star players and he has responded tremendously and is on pace for a career year. His .420 wOBA is 3rd to only Vladdy and Ohtani and he enters the night with hits in five of six games since the ASB. It is very close but I lean Muncy as my top play at first base tonight. Anthony Rizzo FD - 1B 3100 DK - 1B 4200 Opponent - STL (Kwang Hyun Kim) Park - STL FD - 10.1 DK - 7.56 It has been a rough season overall for Rizzo...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 7/21/21 – All Day
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 7/21/21 - All Day Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clickiang the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Afternoon Madison Bumgarner FD 7200 DK 10100 Opponent - PIT (Max Kranick) Park - PITFD - 32.1 DK - 15.8 After looking like complete toast for the last couple of seasons, Bumgarner has bounced back in some ways to show that he can at least still put guys down swinging. He’s striking out more than a batter an inning this year and keeping the walks relatively in check. Sure, the 5+ ERA is bad, but the xFIP is at least a little better in the mid 4’s. He also gets the 26th-ranked offense in the Pittsburgh Pirates as a -130 home favorite. It’s not overwhelming odds, but this slate is rough with pitching, to begin with. Main Lance McCullers Jr. FD 10200 DK 10100 Opponent - CLE (Eli Morgan) Park - CLEFD - 34.58 DK - 18.6 The Indians are a little banged up right now and McCullers opens this slate as the biggest money line favorite. He’s -225 at home here and it puts him at the best win odds for the slate. McCullers is striking out more than 10 batters per nine with the only issue right now being the number of walks he’s giving up. But the Indians aren’t a great offense by any means and he’s in such a good spot for this slate. There are some other good arms here, but we will take the win odds on McCullers. Julio Urías (FD $9100 DK $9700) could be a popular play here as well. Catcher/First Base Afternoon Pete Alonso FD 3800 DK 5900 Opponent - CIN (Jeff Hoffman) Park - CINFD - 14.77 DK - 10.97 The Mets are going to be a pretty easy stack on this slate against Jeff Hoffman who brings a 5.22 xFIP into this game. Alonso isn’t on the 53-home run pace we saw in his rookie year, but has 19 through 300+ plate appearances with an .829 OPS. Not completely elite numbers and the price is a little hefty, but the Mets have the highest implied run total here by a healthy margin. Main Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD 4500 DK 6000 Opponent - BOS (Garrett Richards) Park - BOSFD - 16.19 DK - 12.28 Pitching is at a premium meaning it might be tough to pay up for a lot of bats. But if you are going to do it with one of these guys it should...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 7/20/21 – Main slate
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 7/20/21 - Main slate Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clickiang the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Shane McClanahan FD - P 7800 DK - RP 8600 Opponent - BAL (John Means) Park - TBFD - 34.31 DK - 18.58 Shane McClanahan has had an excellent season, able to translate his minor league numbers into striking out major league bats. He’s putting down hitters almost 30% of the time and the 3.24 xFIP is about three-quarters a run better than the ERA. He comes in as the best-win odds pitcher on the slate as a -191 home favorite against the Orioles. Baltimore strikes out about 24% of the time as a team and ranks 22nd in terms of wOBA. I suspect he is one of the highest-owned cash game pitchers. He’s simply too cheap on both sites, especially FanDuel. Trevor Rogers FD - P 10000 DK - RP 10000 Opponent - WSH (Paolo Espino) Park - WSHFD - 34.19 DK - 18.95 Rogers is more expensive though his numbers aren’t that different from McClanahan. He’s run better with the ERA (2.31) even though the xFIP is about the same. He’s a good pitcher in his own right obviously but has a worse matchup against the Nationals who are in the top-third on offense this season. And his win odds aren’t as good. But because of the McClanahan’s discount on DraftKings you can definitely play these guys together over there. Catcher/First Base C.J. Cron FD 3700 DK 5000 Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - SEAFD - 13.51 DK - 10.18 You are guying to see more than a couple of Rockies on this list today and for good reason. Playing in Coors against a weaker lefty will do that. Gonzales has a 5.05 xFIP on the season and doesn’t have much in the strikeout stuff. Cron has had a solid enough first season with the Rockies with a mid-800s OPS and 13 home runs. He walks enough to keep the floor high and should be hitting in the top six spots in the lineup against the lefty. Yuli Gurriel FD 2700 DK 4200 Opponent - CLE (Triston McKenzie) Park - CLEFD - 14.03 DK - 10.76 Gurriel makes a solid cash game play in most matchups because he puts the ball in play so much (80% of the time) and strikes out only 10% of the time. The contact rate is elite and he has some power as well with 10 home runs this...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/19/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/19/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Yu Darvish FD - P 11200 DK - SP 9200 Opponent - ATL (Kyle Muller) Park - ATL FD - 33.59 DK - 18.86 Buckle up tonight if you fall into the recency bias category as my top pitchers both went into the All-Star break struggling. The good news here is that both were All-Stars and have been very consistent overall. Darvish's short outing vs. the Nats can be attributed to hip inflammation which also put him on the 10-day IL but he is back healthy, with no restrictions, and gets a matchup vs. the Acuna-less Braves. This is also a buy-low opportunity as he is at his lowest price since early in the season. Darvish tops our projections and is my favorite pitcher in all formats. Kyle Gibson FD - P 9100 DK - SP 9000 Opponent - DET (Casey Mize) Park - DET FD - 31.91 DK - 17.27 Gibson bookended the first half with terrible starts(5 ER in each) but the good news is it was the work in between that earned him a spot on the All-Star team. Even with those two bad starts, he still held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 14 of 17 starts good for a 2.29 ERA which is 5th-best in baseball. He opens his second half against a Tigers team that has won three straight but I am not worried as they rank bottom 10 in almost all offensive categories including wOBA, wRC+, and ISO. Gibson is in play in all formats. Catcher/First Base Yuli Gurriel FD - 1B 2700 DK - 1B 4700 Opponent - CLE (J.C. Mejía) Park - HOU FD - 12.32 DK - 9.45 First article for me out of the ASB so of course I have to go with one of my favorite plays all season in terms of PTS/$ value. I have mentioned over and over that Yuli is having a career year at age 37 as he enters the night hitting .314 with an elite .379 OBP and 137 wRC+. He and the Astros not only get a plus matchup against JC Mejia who has given up six earned runs in three of his last four starts, Gurriel's price continues to sit below $5K on DraftKings making him a core play for me in all formats. Anthony Rizzo FD - 1B 3100 DK - 1B 3700 Opponent - STL (Jake Woodford)...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 7/18/21 – Main slate
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 7/18/21 - Main slate Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clickiang the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Zack Wheeler FD - P 11000 DK - SP 9500 Opponent - MIA (Undecided) Park - PHIFD - 38.59 DK - 21.08 Wheeler is having a total breakout of a season, spiking the strikeouts to career numbers and turning into one of the best pitchers in the league. He’s K-ing batters close to 31% of the time and shown elite control with a 5.5:1 K:BB ratio. The Marlins rank as the third-worst offense in the league this season, striking out more than 26% of the time. Even at elevated prices, Wheeler will likely be the chalk on this slate and it makes sense. Hyun-Jin Ryu FD - DK - SP 7600 Opponent - TEX (Kolby Allard) Park - TORFD - 0 DK - 18.98 Ryu isn’t going to dial up the strikeouts much based on the way he is pitching this season. He is K-ing fewer than 7.5 batters per nine which is a drop off from his numbers over the last few seasons. But he still induces ground balls about 50% of the time and limits the walks. The Rangers rank 24th on offense this season and strike out more than 24% of the time. Plus, Ryu comes in as a -235 home favorite, the best win odds on the slate. He’s not available on FanDuel, but run him on DraftKings. Catcher/First Base Darin Ruf FD - OF 2900 DK - 1B 5000 Opponent - STL (Wade LeBlanc) Park - STLFD - 11.44 DK - 8.65 Ruf is having an awesome season with a .952 OPS through his 144 plate appearances. He’s totaled up nine home runs already and is walking an elite 17% of the time. And he’s done real damage against lefties for his career with a 157 wRC+, .401 wOBA and .952 OPS in that split. Those are some of the best numbers you will see. Against a very weak arm in Wade leBlanc this is a great spot for Ruf if he’s hitting in the middle of the lineup. If Buster Posey is back in the lineup then he would be looking like a cash game play as well. Jeimer Candelario FD - 1B 2700 DK - 3B 4000 Opponent - MIN (J.A. Happ) Park - DETFD - 10.51 DK - 7.94 I think we can go cheaper at 1B on this slate with some middle-of-the-order bats coming really cheap. Candelario should...